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Supply
The global rate of oil production is up slightly year-over-year. However, during the same period global net exports of oil declined. Production gains in Russia, the US and Canada are just barely offsetting production declines in Norway, UK, Latin America and the Middle East. Global supermajor production continues to fall. Based on this data, we are likely still on the "bumpy plateau" of peak oil and have likely passed "peak oil exports."
2%
4%
-6%
-8%
6%
8%
-10%
10%
Demand
Global oil consumption was up slightly year-over-year with almost growth coming from the developing world. The developed world continues to fall from its "peak oil demand" peak. The economies of the developed world are shrinking on a relative basis to the global economy. Europe is officially in a double-dip recession. GDP growth remains strong in Asia and the developing world. In Q1 2013 China overtook the US as the world's largest oil importer - the first time the top spot has changed hands in 41 years.
Price
The price of Brent crude oil has been volatile and fell nearly 10% year-over-year, but remained well above historical averages. Prices in futures and options markets seem to indicate a belief that oil prices will continue to fall, possibly due to slowing global economic growth. The global money supply rose over 6% yearover-year as central banks pumped more money into their economies, but a falling velocity of money from economic stagnation has so far kept inflation from pushing up oil prices in real terms.
2001 1999
1974
2004
1970 2004 '97 800,000+ more BPD 600,000-800,000 more BPD 400,000-600,000 more BPD 200,000-400,000 more BPD 0-200,000 more BPD No Data 0-200,000 fewer BPD 200,000-400,000 fewer BPD 400,000-600,000 fewer BPD 600,000-800,000 fewer BPD 800,000+ fewer BPD Peak Oil: 2001 Peak Oil: 2000
2%
4% 6% 8% Peak Growth Rate: 7% in 1986
page 1 of 1
Russia
5-Year Net Oil Export CAGR
Saudi Arabia
5-Year Net Oil Export CAGR
Iraq
5-Year Net Oil Export CAGR
Kuwait
5-Year Net Oil Export CAGR
0%
-2%
0%
-2%
0%
-2%
0%
-2%
0%
2% 4% 6%
8%
8%
8%
8%
8%
<-10%
<-10%
<-10%
<-10%
Nigeria
5-Year Net Oil Export CAGR
Venezuela
5-Year Net Oil Export CAGR
Norway
5-Year Net Oil Export CAGR
Libya
5-Year Net Oil Export CAGR
Canada
5-Year Net Oil Export CAGR
0%
-2%
0%
-2%
0%
-2%
0%
-2%
0%
2% 4% 6%
8%
8%
8%
8%
8%
<-10%
<-10%
<-10%
<-10%
38%
40,000 35,000
12,000
10,000
30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Russia 0 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Jun-13 Saudi Arabia
Thousand BPD
4,000 Chevron
2,000 ExxonMobil
2012
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Russia
12000
Saudi Arabia
Production Consumption
Net Exports
Production Consumption
Net Exports
Iraq
3500
3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 -500 Production Consumption Net Exports
Production Consumption
Net Exports
Kuwait
3000
Nigeria
3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0
Kuwait announced that it plans to spend $56 billion over the next 5 years to raise production by 650,000 bpd by 2020. The Kuwaiti central bank announced that its economy would likely grow at just 1.9% in 2013 slowing oil export cannibalization.
Production Consumption
Net Exports
Production Consumption
Net Exports
Venezuela
3500
Norway
Production Consumption
Net Exports
Production Consumption
Net Exports
Libya
2000
Canada
Production Consumption
Net Exports
$60,000,000,000
$30,000,000,000
$20,000,000,000
Jun-00
Jul-97
Feb-98
Sep-98
Oct-02
May-03
Aug-94
May-96
Mar-95
Aug-01
Mar-02
Jan-94
Dec-96
Apr-99
Jan-01
Q4-2012 BP
Q1-2013
$4,000,000
$3,500,000 $3,000,000
$20
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 US Capital Expenditure per Barrel Produced US Labor Expenditure per Barrel Produced
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
US Nominal Cost per Crude Oil Well Drilled US Real Cost per Crude Oil/Natural Gas/Dry Well Drilled
800,000+ more BPD 600,000-800,000 more BPD 400,000-600,000 more BPD 200,000-400,000 more BPD 0-200,000 more BPD No Data 0-200,000 fewer BPD 200,000-400,000 fewer BPD 400,000-600,000 fewer BPD 600,000-800,000 fewer BPD 800,000+ fewer BPD
-4%
-6% -8% -10%
4%
6% 8% 10%
page 1 of 1
negative 8% or more negative 6-8% negative 4-6% negative 2-4% negative 0-2% no data 0-1% growth 1-2% growth 2-3% growth 3-4% growth 4%+ growth
-4%
-6% -8% -10%
4%
6% 8% 10%
page 1 of 1
Japan (#4)
Real GDP Growth
India (#5)
Real GDP Growth
0%
-2%
0%
-2%
0%
-2%
0%
-2%
0%
2% 4% 6%
8%
8%
8%
8%
8%
Japan (#4)
Real GDP Growth Relative to World
India (#5)
Real GDP Growth Relative to World
0%
-2%
0%
-2%
0%
-2%
0%
-2%
0%
2% 4% 6%
8%
8%
8%
8%
8%
$17.50
$17.00
1.0%
$15.50 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 $15.00 $14.50 $14.00
Q2-13
China Thailand Iraq Philippines Indonesia Chile Malaysia India World Australia Mexico Hong Kong, China Venezuela, RB Russia Argentina Turkey Taiwan South Africa United States Brazil South Korea Switzerland Canada Slovak Republic Sweden Romania Norway Poland Singapore Bulgaria United Kingdom Japan Austria Germany Denmark France Belgium European Union W Europe Ireland Hungary Finland Netherlands Czech Republic Spain Croatia Italy Portugal Greece -8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00%
Oil Prices
Global oil pries are down year-over-year. This 1-year and 2-year trend of declining oil prices has reversed the 5-year and 10-year trends of rising oil prices. Both Brent and WTI crude oil futures are in backwardation, indicating that traders expect the price of oil to fall in the future. This backwardation benefits investors who take long positions in futures ETFs (like DBO & OIL), as there is no negative roll yield," like when oil is in congtango. The commitment of speculative traders and the difference in expected payoffs from put and call options contracts, however, tell us that traders believe that a price drop is le3ss likely than a price rise over the long term.
US Gasoline Price
US Mogas year-over-year % change
Dec-14 -5% -10% -15% -20% <-25% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% >25% -10% -15% -20% <-25% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% >25% Dec-16
Dec-15 Dec-17
Dec-14 Dec-16
Dec-15 Dec-17
Dec-14 Dec-16
Dec-15 Dec-17
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
40% 30%
20%
10% 0% -10% $40.00 $50.00 $60.00 $70.00 $80.00 $90.00
0%
-10% $100.00 $110.00 $120.00 $130.00 $140.00 $90.00
0%
-10%
$70
Backwardation
$70
Backwardation
16.00% Implied Volatility (%) 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% $110 $105 $100 6.00% $95
100.00 90.00 80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 Feb-04 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14
$90
$85
Strike Prices
Oct-04
Oct-03 Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11
2.4
3.4
4.4
0.9
Jun-12
Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Oct-12 Jun-13 Oct-13 Jun-14
Greeks:
Real Option Price: Implied Volitility: Calculated Option Price:
(based on Black Scholes)
$1.46 -0.17
Delta:
(Velocity: Change in option P&L per change in value of Brent crude; Moneyness: the implied probability of expiring in-the-money)
Gamma:
(Acceleration: Change in option Delta per change in value of Brent crude)
Vega:
(Changes in Volitility: Change option P&L from change in volitility of Brent crude)
Theta:
(Passage of Time: Change in option P&L from the passage of time)
Rho:
(Interest Rate Change: change in option P&L from changes in interest rates)
$80
1.4
$140.00
$115.00
$40.00
$65.00
$90.00
negative 8% or more negative 6-8% negative 4-6% negative 2-4% negative 0-2% no data 0-5% growth 5-10% growth 10-25% growth 25-50% growth 50%+ growth
-6%
-8%
6%
8%
-10%
10%
page 1 of 1
S&P 500
yoy return
Relative Performance
P.O.P. Portfolio vs. S&P 500 yoy
Oil
IXC yoy return
Clean Energy
ICLN yoy return
0%
-5%
0%
5% 10% 15%
0%
5% 10% 15%
0%
-5%
0%
5% 10% 15%
-20%
<-25%
20%
>25%
-20%
<-25%
P.O.P. Hypoth.
20%
>25%
20%
P.O.P. Hypoth.
P.O.P. Hypoth.
-20%
<-25%
20%
>25%
20% >25%
<-25%
1-Year: 18%
5-Year CAGR: 5%
1-Year: 2%
5-Year CAGR: 0%
1-Year: 8%
5-Year CAGR: 0%
1-Year: 25%
Natural Resources
MXI yoy return
Timber
WOOD yoy return
Agriculture
VEGI yoy return
Water
PIO yoy return
Industrials
EXI yoy return
0%
-5%
0%
-5%
0%
-5%
0%
-5%
0%
5% 10% 15%
P.O.P. Hypoth.
20%
P.O.P. Hypoth.
20% >25%
P.O.P. Hypoth.
20% >25%
P.O.P. Hypoth.
20%
P.O.P. Hypoth.
20% >25%
<-25%
>25%
<-25%
<-25%
<-25%
>25%
<-25%
1-Year: -2%
1-Year: 22%
5-Year CAGR: 0%
1-Year: 6%
5-Year CAGR: 1%
1-Year: 16%
1-Year: 20%
5-Year CAGR: 4%
Health Care
IXJ yoy return
Media
PBS yoy return
Telecommunications
IXP yoy return
Utilities
JXI yoy return
0%
-5%
0%
-5%
0%
-5%
0%
-5%
0%
5% 10% 15%
P.O.P. Hypoth.
P.O.P. Hypoth.
20% >25%
P.O.P. Hypoth.
20% >25%
P.O.P. Hypoth.
20% >25%
P.O.P. Hypoth.
20% >25%
<-25%
<-25%
<-25%
<-25%
1-Year: 26%
5-Year CAGR: 9%
1-Year: 7%
1-Year: 44%
1-Year: 8%
5-Year CAGR: 4%
1-Year: 4%
Technology
IXN yoy return
US Zero-Coupon Bonds
ZROZ yoy return
Intl. Bonds
LEMB yoy return
0%
-5%
0%
-5%
0%
-5%
0%
-5%
0%
P.O.P. Hypoth.
Hedge
-20% <-25% 20% >25% -20% <-25%
Hedge
20% >25%
P.O.P. Hypoth.
P.O.P. Hypoth.
<-25%
<-25%
1-Year: 9%
5-Year CAGR: 5%
1-Year: -16%
5-Year CAGR: 7%
1-Year: 2%
5-Year CAGR: 0%
1-Year: 0%
1-Year: 18%
5-Year CAGR: 4%
Commodities
GSG yoy return
Railroads
UNP, NSC, CNI, GSH, CSX yoy return
Carsharing
CAR & HTZ yoy return
Bitcoins
yoy return
0%
-5%
0%
5%
10% 15% -10% -15% -20%
-5%
0%
-5%
0%
-5%
0%
5% 10% 15%
P.O.P. Hypoth.
20% >25%
P.O.P. Hypoth.
20% >25%
P.O.P. Hypoth.
P.O.P. Hypoth.
20% >25%
P.O.P. Hypoth.
20% >25%
<-25%
<-25%
<-25%
<-25%
1-Year: 1%
1-Year: -26%
5-Year CAGR: 4%
1-Year: 19%
5-Year CAGR: 7%
1-Year: 91%
1-Year: 1695%
Airlines
FAA yoy return
Trucking
JBHT, ODFL, LSTR, CHRW yoy return
Gasoline Toys
HZO, WGO, BX yoy return
Tires
GT yoy return
0%
-5%
0%
-5%
0%
-5%
0%
5% 10% 15%
POP Hypoth.
20% >25%
POP Hypoth.
20% >25%
POP Hypoth.
20% >25%
POP Hypoth.
20% >25%
<-25%
<-25%
<-25%
1-Year: 39%
1-Year: 16%
1-Year: 56%
1-Year: 30%
About: I created this dashboard to keep track of the key quantitative indicators of peak oil. Oil is a finite resource and peak oil will happen eventually. Because some experts, such as the Energy Watch Group, believe that peak oil is happening right now, I want to keep track of these indicators on a real-time basis. I designed this dashboard to be mostly automated, in order to allow me to easily update it on a quarterly basis. All of the information contained herein is publically available; I use no private data. Page 1 Notes: This is simply a summary of the other pages
Page 2 Notes: "Oil Production" is the monthly total wellhead oil production rate. Wellhead production data comes from the Oil Market Intelligence report published by Energy Intelligence Group. Data was pulled into Microsoft Excel using Haver Analytics Data Link Express (DLX).
Page 3 Notes: "Net Oil Exports" is the monthly total wellhead oil production rate minus the monthly petroleum consumption rate for each country/region. Wellhead production data comes from the Oil Market Intelligence report published by Energy Intelligence Group. Country/region petroleum consumption data comes from the annual Oil & Gas Journal from Pennwell Publishing. The annual oil consumption rate is extrapolated forward using the prior 5-Year compound annual growth rate of consumption (CAGR) and converted into a monthly rate. Data was pulled into Microsoft Excel using Haver Analytics Data Link Express (DLX). Supermajor oil production rate data comes from 10-K annual reports published on the Securities and Exchange Commission Electronic Data Gathering, Analysis, and Retrieval (EDGAR) system.
Page 4 Notes: Thank you to Jeffrey Brown for creating the "Export Land Model" that allows us to estimate current net exports of oil producing nations instead of waiting for the EIA to release their estimates 2 years after they happen. "Net Oil Exports" is the monthly total wellhead oil production rate minus the monthly petroleum consumption rate for each country/region. Wellhead production data comes from the Oil Market Intelligence report published by Energy Intelligence Group. Country/region petroleum consumption data comes from the annual Oil & Gas Journal from Pennwell Publishing. The annual oil consumption rate is extrapolated forward using the prior 5-Year compound annual growth rate of consumption (CAGR) and converted into a monthly rate. Data was pulled into Microsoft Excel using Haver Analytics Data Link Express (DLX).
Page 5 Notes: Drilling rig count data comes from Baker Hughes. Sumermajor quaterly operating profits come from comes from 10-Q quarterly reports published on the Securities and Exchange Commission Electronic Data Gathering, Analysis, and Retrieval (EDGAR) system. US capital expenditure per barrel is derived from total US capital expenditure in the petrolium industry divided by the total US crude oil production. Data for capital expenditure, oil production, nominal cost per well and real cost per well come from the Oil & Gas Journal Annual Forecast & Review. Data was pulled into Microsoft Excel using Haver Analytics Data Link Express (DLX). Page 6 Notes: "Oil Production" is the monthly total "Oil Product Demand" for each country. Demand data comes from the Oil Market Intelligence report published by Energy Intelligence Group. Data was pulled into Microsoft Excel using Haver Analytics Data Link Express (DLX).
Page 7 Notes: Quarterly GDP data comes from Oxford Economics' global macroeconomic database. Relative GDP growth of each country is caculated as the change in the real (2005 US$ Prices & PPP Exchange Rate) GDP of a country as a percentage of total GDP. Data was pulled into Microsoft Excel using Haver Analytics Data Link Express (DLX). Thank you to Mark McHug (http://acrossthestreetnet.wordpress.com/) for giving me the idea to measure GDP growth of countries relative to one another as well as measuring global GDP growth USD as well as in oil barrels and ounces of gold. Page 8 Notes: "Real GDP" is country/region Gross Domestic Product at 2005 US Dollar prices and current Purchasing Power Parity exchange rates. Data comes from Oxford Economics and was pulled into Microsoft Excel using Haver Analytics Data Link Express (DLX).
Page 9 Notes: Summaries come from Tom Whipple's "Peak Oil Review" published weekly by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas USA (ASPO-USA): http://aspousa.org/category/peakoil-review/
Page 10 Notes: Data for crude oil prices and US gasoline prices comes from the Oil & Gas Journal. Data for Brent and WTI crude oil futures comes from IntercontinentalExchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, respectivly. Data for Brent call and put options comes from barchart.com. Data for the WTI implied volitility surface comes from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
Page 11 Notes: Data for the money supply of each country comes from Haver Analytics. M3 money supply was used wherever possible. In countries that do not publish M3 data (such as the United States) M2 money supply is used instead. All money supplies are converted to USD using current exchange rates. Velocity of money comes from the US Federal Reserve.
Page 11 Notes: Stock price data comes from Yahoo Finance. All data is adjusted for dividends and splits.