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DSCC MEMO 072413

DSCC MEMO 072413

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Published by Zeke Miller
DSCC MEMO 072413
DSCC MEMO 072413

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Published by: Zeke Miller on Jul 24, 2013
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 MEMORANDUMTo: Interested PartiesFrom: Guy Cecil, Executive Director of the DSCCDate: Wednesday, July 24, 2013Re: State of the Senate Map
Like 2012, Democrats inherited a difficult map this cycle, but over the last seven months wehave seen increasing signs that we can hold our majority despite the circumstances.
Democratic incumbents have built strong campaign organizations with top tier staff andare dramatically outraising Republicans.
recruited strong candidates that put Kentucky and Georgia in play. Now the publicpolls are confirming we are playing offense in red states for the second consecutive cycle.
Unlike the Republicans, we do not have a single primary in any competitive state.
 We continue to expand our financial, technological, and field advantages over an NRSCstruggling to keep pace.Meanwhile, Republicans have not missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity. NationalRepublicans have failed to put any blue or purple state into play, and find themselves mired indivisive primaries that pit Tea Party conservatives against establishment Republicans favored by the Washington elite. We are seven months into the cycle, and despite their rhetoric,Republicans find themselves held hostage by the far right of their party.
The most competitive races in the country today are the four incumbents in NorthCarolina, Alaska, Arkansas, and Louisiana; Georgia, where a right wing primary,
Michelle Nunn’s
strong candidacy and changing demographics make this a battleground contest; and Kentucky, where Alison Lundergan Grimes is tied withMitch McConnell according to the latest polling.Republicans must essentially sweep these states, winning five of the six, in order to win the majority.
Remember that only three Democratic incumbents have lost reelection in the last decade, andnow Republicans need to defeat three in one year. That's difficult for a party that has provenparticularly good at losing Senate races the last five years.Certainly a lot can and will change. Democrats fully expect to compete in West Virginia,Montana, and South Dakota, and Republicans said this week that they think they can win inHawaii, New Mexico, and Oregon.
 When you look at the most competitive races in the country, the most strikingdisparity between Republicans and Democrats is that Democrats are united behind a candidate and already positioning themselves for a general election, while Republicans have failed to unite the party behind a single candidate. Theircandidates, their message, and their ideology are out of touch.Georgia:
This is likely the craziest primary in the country, and the one most likely to giveRepublicans major heart ache. The six-way race has already turned into a right wing circus thatis likely to end with an August run-off that produces another Todd Akin extremist. MichelleNunn brings to the race the experience of a CEO, a career devoted to service, and deep workingrelationships with many Republicans in Georgia going back generations. In the last 48 hours,
 we’ve seen why Michelle Nunn’s independent message
and strong record will make this a toptier state.
Alison Lundergan Grimes is tied with Mitch McConnell, according to the latest
polling, and now the nation’s least popular Senator
, McConnell, faces a Tea Party challenge fromKentucky businessman Matt Bevin. Bevin has already bought airtime against McConnell, whohad a 28% reelect according to DSCC polling from earlier this year. McConnell is so worried thatrecent news reports suggest he threatened and bribed Bevin to withdraw from the race. Ignorethe rhetoric coming form the other side and look at the facts.
 Nearly $2 million hasalready been spent or reserved on TV in this race, because it is a race Grimes canwin.
Tea Party darling Joe Miller is running against the Lt. Governor Mead Treadwell, whoappears to be the NRSC pick. Treadwell has raised only $180,000 since launching his committeein December. Miller holds a two to one cash advantage over Treadwell. Add them both up, and
they have less than one fourth of Senator Mark Begich’s haul.
North Carolina:
The NRSC attempt to anoint House Speaker Thom Tillis as the chosen onehas been an unmitigated disaster
. Tillis’ can
didacy has imploded with pay-to-play scandals,absenteeism, an out-of-control legislature, and weak fundraising numbers. NRSC operativeshave reportedly made other trips to the state to recruit State Senate President Phil Berger andCongresswoman Renee Ellmers. Tea party candidate & OBGYN Greg Brannon is already running, and conservative Rev. Mark Harris is also reportedly planning to run. Senator Haganleads all potential challengers by double digits, according to Public Policy Polling from this
Retired Air Force Col. Rob Maness is challenging Congressman Bill Cassidy, whohas been heavily criticized by powerhouse conservative groups like the Club For Growth and theSenate Conservatives Fund. Mannes has already met with Senator Ted Cruz and otherconservative groups soliciting support. You should expect others to get in this race. The jungleprimary in Louisiana will ensure this race stays messy on the Republican side right up untilElection Day. Meanwhile, Mary Landrieu has proven time and time again, she has thereputation for toughness and independence needed to win. And she has nearly $5 million tostart her race.
While Republicans still do not have an announced candidate, Senator Pryor hasalready built a strong campaign organization in the state and amassed $4 million for hisreelection. He has strong name ID and favorable rating with a record to match. Republicans willregret the day they started recruiting an inexperienced, right-
 wing Congressman who wasn’t
sworn in before planning a run for the Senate. Just ask Rick Berg.

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