MEMORANDUMTo: Interested PartiesFrom: Guy Cecil, Executive Director of the DSCCDate: Wednesday, July 24, 2013Re: State of the Senate Map
Like 2012, Democrats inherited a difficult map this cycle, but over the last seven months wehave seen increasing signs that we can hold our majority despite the circumstances.
Democratic incumbents have built strong campaign organizations with top tier staff andare dramatically outraising Republicans.
recruited strong candidates that put Kentucky and Georgia in play. Now the publicpolls are confirming we are playing offense in red states for the second consecutive cycle.
Unlike the Republicans, we do not have a single primary in any competitive state.
We continue to expand our financial, technological, and field advantages over an NRSCstruggling to keep pace.Meanwhile, Republicans have not missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity. NationalRepublicans have failed to put any blue or purple state into play, and find themselves mired indivisive primaries that pit Tea Party conservatives against establishment Republicans favored by the Washington elite. We are seven months into the cycle, and despite their rhetoric,Republicans find themselves held hostage by the far right of their party.
The most competitive races in the country today are the four incumbents in NorthCarolina, Alaska, Arkansas, and Louisiana; Georgia, where a right wing primary,
strong candidacy and changing demographics make this a battleground contest; and Kentucky, where Alison Lundergan Grimes is tied withMitch McConnell according to the latest polling.Republicans must essentially sweep these states, winning five of the six, in order to win the majority.
Remember that only three Democratic incumbents have lost reelection in the last decade, andnow Republicans need to defeat three in one year. That's difficult for a party that has provenparticularly good at losing Senate races the last five years.Certainly a lot can and will change. Democrats fully expect to compete in West Virginia,Montana, and South Dakota, and Republicans said this week that they think they can win inHawaii, New Mexico, and Oregon.