Levy Economics Institute of Bard College

Levy Economics
Institute
of Bard College

Strategic Analysis
2013

Greece

. , Gennaro Zezza

,
Floyd Norris (2013) New York Times.

(192934)

() 20%, ,

. ,

, 20%

2008, ,

1. ,

( 2).

(1934),

.
,

k , ,

, ,
.

200713. Copyright 2013 Levy
Economics Institute of Bard College

Figure 2 Greece and the United States: Two Great

DepressionsUnemployment Rates

Figure 1 Greece and the United States: Two Great

DepressionsReal GDP Indices
100

30

96

25

92

20
Percent

88
84

15
10

80

76

72
0

+1

+2
+3
Years since Depression Began

+5

+4

+1

+2
+3
Years since Depression Began

Greece (base year = 2008)

United States (base year = 1929)

Greece (2008=100)
United States (1929=100)

Sources: BEA; ElStat

Figure 3 Greece: Employment and Unemployment

Figure 4 Greece: Real GDP (2005=100)

1,400

220

4,400

1,200

210

4,200

1,000

4,000

800

3,800

600

3,600

400

3,400
2006

200
2007

2008

2009

Employment (left scale)

Unemployment (right scale)
Source: ElStat

2010

2011

2012

Billions of Euros

4,600

Thousands of Workers

Thousands of Workers

Sources: BEA; ElStat

200
190
180
170
160

2013
150
Baseline Scenario
Troika Projections (May 2010)
Troika Projections (December 2010)
Troika Projections (December 2011)
Troika Projections (June 2013)
Sources: IMF; EC; authors calculations

Strategic Analysis, July 2013

+4

+5

9,1% ,

(Norris 2013).
:

2008,

LIMG (Papadimitriou et

al 2013),

, ,

28%, 2013

( 3),

()

1.3 ,
27.4%

, ,

, (IMF 2013b)

. 4 5

Figure 5 Greece: Real GDP Growth Rate

Figure 6 Greece: Unemployment Rate

35
30
25
Percent

Percent

20
15
10

-4

5
2000

-8
2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Baseline Scenario
Troika Projections (May 2010)
Troika Projections (December 2010)
Troika Projections (December 2011)
Troika Projections (June 2013)

2010

2012

2014

2016

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Baseline Scenario
Troika Projections (May 2010)
Troika Projections (December 2010)
Troika Projections (December 2011)
Troika Projections (June 2013)
Sources: IMF; EC; authors calculations

Sources: IMF; EC; authors calculations

Levy Economics Institute of Bard College

, 6

27%,

.
.
,

. , 4

. ,

. ,

Levy Institute (LIMG)

7 8,

. (...)

(Papadimitriou et al. 2012).

. (IMF

2013a, 49)

6,

2012

Figure 7 Greece: Contributions to Real GDP Growth

8

( 2013b),

2014

2014. , ,

.
Strategic Analysis, July 2013

4
Annual Growth Rate

34% 2016.

0
-4
-8

-12
2004

2006

GDP
Exports
Consumption
Investment
Government Expenditure
Imports (reversed)
Source: ElStat

2008

2010

2012

 5,7%,

2007

2013

3%

2009,

, 5,6%
2012.

2013.

4%.

, .

, 7

8.

7 8,
,

56

190

52

180

48

170

44

160

40

150

36

140

32

130

28

120

24
2004

110
2006

2008

Investment (left scale)

Exports (left scale)
Government Expenditure (left scale)
Consumption (right scale)
Source: ElStat

2010

2012

. 7

, ,

2012.

Annual Level (in billions of euros)

Annual Level (in billions of euros)

200

Figure 8 Greece: GDP Components

60

. , ,

(Alesina and Ardagna
1998, Ardagna 2004, Alesina et al 2012, Giavazzi and Pagano

1990). , ,

7,
.

Levy Economics Institute of Bard College

2009, ,
8

13 .

, 200910,

2007

. ,

34 2007

( 2013)
25 .

Figure 9 Greece: Real Disposable Income and Private

Expenditure
15

Annual Growth Rate in Percent

10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
2004

2008

2006

2010

2012

Disposable Income with Net Capital Transfers

Current Disposable Income
Private Expenditure

Sources: ElStat; authors calculations

2,5.

9.

9 8,

8,

30 .

( )
(). 9 , ,

2012,

(Papadimitriou et. al 2012)

, ,
6

Strategic Analysis, July 2013

2012,

, 2008,

,
.

.
(

2012)

()
11.

10 11 ,

11,

10. 10

200508,

23% 2008

,
8%

15%.

6%.

Figure 10 Greece: Private Sector Borrowing

Figure 11 Greece: Private Sector Gross Debt

20

200
Percent of GDP

240

12
8

160
120
80
40

0
2005

0
-4
-8
2005

. 12 ,

24

16
Percent of GDP

2007

2009

2011

2013

Nonfinancial
Corporate Nonfinancial
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Nonfinancial
Corporate Nonfinancial
Households

Households
Sources: Bank of Greece; ElStat

Note: To eliminate seasonal fluctuations, data are presented as four-quarter

moving averages.
Sources: Bank of Greece; ElStat

Levy Economics Institute of Bard College

Figure 12 Greece: Relative Changes in the Price of Assets

80

12

60

Percent

-20

Percent

20

-4

-40
-8

-60
-80
2000

-12
2004

2002

2006

2008

2010

2012

Stock Market (left scale)

Housing Market (right scale)

, ,

2005,

2003.

2016.

7 8

()

,
. 13

2010,

2008,

2012. ,

2012.

Figure 13 Greece: Real Growth Rate of Exports

2000,

30

( 88%

2012)
(

63%

2013 2012)

1995.

Strategic Analysis, July 2013

20
10
Percent

2007

Sources: Bank of Greece; ElStat

40

0
-10
-20
-30
2005

2006

Exported Goods
Exported Services
Source: ElStat

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

),

2010.

14.

1999

Figure 14 Eurozone: Competitiveness Indexes, by Country

19992013. 14 , ,
, .

,
, ,

( 7,5% 2012),

15.

Belgium

Germany

Ireland

Greece

Spain
France
Italy
Cyprus

Figure 15 Greece: Exports of Goods, by Destination

Luxembourg
Malta

Netherlands
Austria

Slovenia
Finland
-20

-10
0
10
20
Relative to Eurozone Average (1999Q1=100)

30

Consumer Prices (April 2013)

GDP Deflators (2012Q4)
Unit Labor Costs (2012Q4)
Note: The Harmonised Competitiveness Indicator based on consumer prices is
not available for the eurozone as a whole and has been computed as the simple
average of the indices for all euro-area countries except Slovakia, an outlier
whose HPI increased by almost 100 percent between 1999 and 2013, against an
average euro-area increase of 0.7 percent.
Source: Bank of Greece

Percent of GDP

Portugal

0
1990

1994

1998

2002

2006

2010

Rest of World
Other Eurozone Countries
Germany
United States
Source: OECD

Levy Economics Institute of Bard College

 . ,

1990 2011,

STAN 1

. (1990),

(2000), (2006),

2011.

-4
-8
-12
45
-16
35

Percent of GDP

1%

Figure 16 Greece: Balance of Trade

Percent of GDP

25
15
2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

Balance of Trade (right scale)

Imports (left sale)
Exports (left scale)
Note: To eliminate seasonal fluctuations, data are presented as four-quarter
moving averages.

Source: ElStat

. , ,

10

2000

2006

2011

1.17
0.15

0.96
0.69

0.75
0.8

0.87
0.83

0.6

1.03

1.19

1.26

2.23
4.21
0.12

2.56
2.95
0.47

2.62
2.15
0.42

5.21
2.18
0.37

Strategic Analysis, July 2013

23%
( 25%

). , ,

6% ,

1990

Source: OECD

Table 1 Greece: Exports of Goods (percent of GDP)

Agriculture
High-technology Industries
Medium-high-technology
Industries
Medium-low-technology
Industries
Low-technology Industries
ICT Manufactures

34% 2008 24% 2009,

,
, 16.

,
17.
,

 5,8%

Figure 17 Greece: Net Payments from Abroad

2012. 2012
.

1
Percent of GDP

1,3% ,

1,7%
2012. ,

-5
2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

Capital Transfers
Other Current Transfers
Compensation of Employees
Other Property Income

2.

-2

-4

200% .

-1

-3

Interest

56%

Source: ElStat

2012 122% .

. ,

2000 126,6%

2012.

. ,

( 36%

20%

2006 15% )

Table 2 Greece: Foreign Assets and Liabilities (ratio to GDP)

Assets

2000
Liabilities

Monetary Gold and SDRs

Deposits
Securities: Private
Securities: Public
Loans: Private
Loans: Public
Shares and Other Equity
Other

1.1
29.4
12.9
0.0
2.8

6.5
1.9

29.7
3.0
44.5
7.7
7.3
14.0
4.4

TOTAL

54.6

110.6

Assets

2006
Liabilities

1.1
-0.3
9.9
-44.5
-4.9
-7.3
-7.6
-2.4

0.9
29.0
28.9
0.1
2.5

9.3
3.3

41.0
2.8
68.5
11.6
9.9
36.3
3.2

0.9
-12.0
26.2
-68.4
-9.1
-9.9
-27.0
0.2

2.8
51.4
49.3
7.3
3.0

19.9
4.3

103.4
1.1
27.1
9.3
102.6
15.0
6.1

2.8
-52.0
48.2
-19.8
-6.3
-102.6
4.9
-1.8

-56.0

74.1

173.3

-99.2

138.0

264.6

-126.6

Net

Net

Assets

2012
Liabilities

Net

Source: Bank of Greece

Levy Economics Institute of Bard College

11

2009, 1,2

41% 2006 103% ).

2007.

80% 2006 2012.

18, 2013. ,

,
4,7

2007,

2013

()

18

(baseline scenario)

5,3 .

.

.

2012,

5,6

, ,

,
.

19.

Figure 18 Greece: Government Current Expenditure

Figure 19 Greece: Government Current Revenue

24

14

20

13

16

12

Percent of GDP

Percent of GDP

2007. ,

12
6
4
0
2004

2006

2008

Social Benefits
Compensation of Employees
Intermediate Consumption
Interest

2010

2012

2014

2016

11
10
9
8
7
2004

2006

Social Contributions
Indirect Taxes
Direct Taxes

Sources: ElStat; EC; IMF

Sources: ElStat; EC; IMF

12

Strategic Analysis, July 2013

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

 ,
2008,

, ,

,
, .

,
1 2007.

2013

4% 2016,

, ,

:
201316

2016.

,
2013

500 .

. ,

20.

(
)

,
,

,

.

(2013) Economic Outlook

, -

16

(baseline)

12
Percent of GDP

Figure 20 Greece: Government Deficit

(IMF 2013c).

0
2004

2006

2008

Net Borrowing/Lending
Net of Capital Transfers
Sources: ElStat; EC; IMF

2010

2012

2014

2016

. ,

(IMF 2013d) ,

Levy Economics Institute of Bard College

13

,
,

2123, .

21, 2014,

. , ( 22)

. ,

2015 2016,
158

30

2014
3,6
50 .

( 23) ,

() ,

7,6%

.
,

, ,

Figure 22 Greece: Alternative Scenarios for Employment

200

4,400

190

4,300
4,200

180

Thousands of Jobs

Billions of Euros

Figure 21 Greece: Alternative Scenarios for Real GDP

170
160
150
140
2010

4,100
4,000
3,900
3,800
3,700

2011

2012

Baseline Scenario
Marshall Plan Scenario
GDP Target Scenario
Deficit Target Scenario
Source: Authors calculations

2013

2014

2015

2016

3,600
3,500
2010

2011

Baseline Scenario
Marshall Plan Scenario
GDP Target Scenario
Deficit Target Scenario
Source: Authors calculations

14

Strategic Analysis, July 2013

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Figure 24 Greece: Alternative Scenarios for the External

Account

14

12

Percent of GDP

Percent of GDP

Figure 23 Greece: Alternative Scenarios for the Government

Current Deficit

10
8
6
4

-4
-8

-12
2010

2
0
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Baseline Scenario
Marshall Plan Scenario
GDP Target Scenario
Deficit Target Scenario

2011

2012

2014

2013

2015

2016

Baseline Scenario
Marshall Plan Scenario
GDP Target Scenario
Deficit Target Scenario
Source: Authors calculations

Source: Authors calculations

(IMF 2013c). ,

( 23),

2122,

( 21),

90

( 22).

12% 2016

5% ( 24).

, 41

, 160

( 22).

.
.

Levy Economics Institute of Bard College

15

 . ,

,
.

, ,

()

, 30

Marshall

, 2013.

2124.

2016 175

( 21),

200

( 22).

(Stehn 2012).

30%,

(Antonopoulos

et

al.

2011).

,
4% ( 23),

2% 2016.

16

Strategic Analysis, July 2013

Alesina, A., C. Favero, and F. Giavazzi. 2012. The Output

Paper. Research Project Report. Annandale-on Hudson,

N.Y.: Levy Economics Institute of Bard College. May.

Effect of Fiscal Consolidation. Working Paper 18336.

Papadimitriou, D. B., G. Zezza, and V. Duwicquet. 2012.

Alesina, A., and S. Ardagna. 1998. Tales of Fiscal

Economics Institute of Bard College and Athens:

Washington, D.C.: National Bureau of Economic Research.

August.

Adjustment. Economic Policy 13(27): 487545.

Antonopoulos, R., D. B. Papadimitriou, and T. Toay. 2011.

Direct Job Creation for Turbulent Times in Greece.

Research Project Report. Annandale-on-Hudson, N.Y.:

Levy Economics Institute of Bard College and Athens:

Observatory of Economic and Social Developments,

GSEE. November.

Ardagna, S. 2004. Fiscal Stabilizations: When Do They Work

and Why. European Economic Review 48(5): 104774.

EC (European Commission). 2013. The Second Economic

Adjustment Programme for Greece: Second Review May

2013. European Economy Occasional Papers, No. 148.

Brussels: Directorate-General for Economic and Financial

Affairs. May.

Giavazzi, F., and M. Pagano. 1990. Can Severe Fiscal

Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small

European Countries. Working paper 3372. Washington,

Current Prospects for the Greek Economy: Interim Report.

Research Project Report. Annandale-on-Hudson, N.Y.: Levy

Observatory of Economic and Social Developments,

GSEE. October.

Stehn, S. 2012. The Fiscal Multiplier at the Zero Bound. US

Economic Analyst, No. 12/13. Goldman Sachs Global ECS

Research, March 30.

Appendix: Data Sources

Bank of Greece. Data accessed June 2013,

http://www.bankofgreece.gr/.

Hellenic Statistical Authority (ElStat). Data accessed June 2013,

http://www.statistics.gr/.

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

(OECD). Data accessed June 2013, http://stats.oecd.org/

Index.aspx?DatasetCode=STAN08BIS.

D.C.: National Bureau of Economic Research. May.

IMF (International Monetary Fund). 2013a. World Economic

Outlook: Hopes, Realities, and Risks. Washington, D.C.:

IMF. April.

. 2013b. Greece: Ex post Evaluation of Exceptional

Access

under

the

2010

Stand-by Arrangement.

Washington, D.C.: IMF. May 20.

. 2013c. Greece: Greece: Third Review under the

Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility.

Country Report No. 13/153. Washington, D.C.: IMF. June.

. 2013d. Greece: Selected Issues. Country Report No.

13/155. Washington, D.C.: IMF. June.

Norris, F . 2013. Seen from Greece, Great Depression Looks

Good. The New York Times, March 16.

OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and

Development). 2013. Economic Outlook, No. 1. Paris:

OECD. May.

Papadimitriou, D. B., G. Zezza, and M. Nikiforos. 2013. A

Levy Institute Model for Greece (LIMG): Technical

Levy Economics Institute of Bard College

17