Global Climate Change:Major Scientific and Policy Issues
Summary
There is growing evidence that human activities are affecting the heat/energy-exchange balance between Earth, the atmosphere, and space through an increase in“greenhouse gases.” If these gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere atcurrent rates, most scientists believe significant global warming would continue tooccur through intensification of Earth’s natural heat-trapping “greenhouse effect.”Over the past 100 years, particularly in recent decades, there have been measurableincreases in global temperature and sea levels, decreases of sea ice in the Arctic, andmelting among the world’s continental ice sheets and mountain glaciers. Apreponderance of the world’s scientists have concluded that human activities,particularly the burning of fossil fuels, have increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO
2
) by 36% from pre-industrial levels of 280 parts per million(ppm) to 380 ppm over the past 150 years, leading to an increase in global averagetemperature of 0.9
o
F over the past 100 years. There is broad agreement on thoseaspects of climate change, which have been measured and are reflected in globaldata. Disagreements focus mainly on the magnitude and rate of change, the severityof estimated warming, and its projected impacts — both positive and negative.Moreover, wide variations of scientific opinion accompany model projections of awarmer world: if these increases in greenhouse gas emissions continue, globalaverage temperature could rise anywhere from 2.7
o
F to 10.7
o
F over the next 100years. Because the U.S. economy is so dependent upon energy, and so much of U.S.and worldwide energy is derived from fossil fuels, options for reducing emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases pose major challenges and controversy.The basic policy question remains: Given scientific uncertainties about themagnitude, timing, rate, and regional consequences of potential climatic change,what are the appropriate responses for U.S. and world decision makers?The 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC), ratified by the United States , called for a “non-binding,” voluntary aimfor industrialized countries to stabilize their emissions of greenhouse gases at 1990levels by the year 2000. This was followed by the 1997 Kyoto Protocol to theUNFCCC, which commits the major industrialized nations that have ratified it tospecified, legally binding emissions reductions. On February 16, 2005, the KyotoProtocol entered into force without ratification by the United States. As of July 10,2006, 164 nations and economic regional integration organizations had ratified theProtocol. In March 2001, the Bush Administration rejected the Kyoto Protocol, andthus the United States is not party to it (and therefore is not subject to itsrequirements). President Bush concluded a cabinet-level climate policy review withan announcement in 2002 of a “new approach” for the United States based onreducing the greenhouse gas intensity (greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP)of the U.S. economy.This report briefly reviews the status of climate science, internationalnegotiations, and congressional activity focused specifically on climate change. Itreplaces CRS Issue Brief IB89005.
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