The Problem with Sincerity

We need research that compares the performance styles of self-proclaimed sincere mediums andpsychics to controls made up of deliberately fraudulent mediums'. Why? Some psychicalresearchers suggest that mediums and psychics fall into two categories; con artists who deliberatelyuse cold reading, and those who sincerely believe they have power but who use cold readingunconsciously. Dr Richard Wiseman thinks that mediums are, in the main, sincere people who areconvinced they can communicate with dead people. They make general statements and then moveto the particular, judging body language as they go, gauging the responses they receive, he says. Inan article in the London Metro newspaper on 23 September 2004, he is quoted saying:

"People react to very generalised statements like: `You have untapped creative potential.'"

The implication is that there are many sincere mediums who carry out unconscious cold reading anduse generalised quotes that could refer to anyone. But there are a number of problems with thishypothesis. A deliberately fraudulent medium certainly uses cold reading to produce vague andgeneral statements that could apply to almost anyone, and there is no question of them actuallyseeing or hearing anything when they say "I see a tall man," or "I hear the name Tom." But sinceremediums (people who really do believe they hear and see the dead) are led by - and so must begintheir reading with - visual or aural hallucinations. Because if they do not react to what theygenuinely see and hear then they are simply fraudulent.Yet if Wiseman is correct, before the sincere medium even opens their mouth their subconsciousmind performs an almost instant subliminal cold reading (judging body language and gaugingresponses etc.) in order to provide a suitable hallucination to stimulate their opening remarks.This process may take place but it seems convoluted and cumbersome. But the main problem is thatit is difficult to imagine what hallucination could pertain to generalised statements without alertingthe sincere medium. It takes self-deception to absurd lengths to suggest that such people (who mustcarry out thousands upon thousands of readings during their lives) fail to notice what would bealmost identical hallucinations for each client (if they begin, as Wiseman claims, with ageneralisation).

Divination

The subliminal cold readings hypothesis is more implausible with organised systems of divination -each with their own set meanings. Dr Chris French, another leading sceptic in the UK, assert thatthere are sincere astrologers, palmists and Tarot readers. He lists typical general statements,including:-

1.) You've got a lot of unused potential.

2.) You've achieved quite a lot in life, but there's an awful lot more you could achieve if you could just tap into that potential.

3.) You've got a better than average sense of humour.

4.) On the surface you seem to be quite a together sort of person, but deep down there are someinsecurities.

Tony Youens, a British sceptic who has appeared on television posing as both an astrologer and atarot reader (and on both occasions he was accepted as 'genuine' by the sitters), also believes it ispossible for sincere mediums and psychics to cold read subliminally:

" In fairness it should be pointed out that not all psychics intend to deliberately deceive the public. Many have a sincere desire to help other people and honestly believe that their 'powers' are quitegenuine." http://www.aske.clara.net/psychic_readings.htm

Tony presents a list of familiar generalized statements that could apply to many people;

"Your Grandmother had trouble with her legs."

"There's a birthday coming up soon." (Or just gone.)

"Has someone been having trouble with a car?"

"He had lot of trouble with his back didn't he?" (Just about the most common complaint in thewestern world.)

Assuming sincerity, we have to believe that astrologers react to what they see in the chart; palmiststo what they see in the palm and Tarot readers to whichever card appears in the spread. So it isagain stretching limits of self-deception to suggest that sincere readers of these divination systemsdon't realise that each person they read has a similar general profile.I propose that any scenario involving sincere mediums or psychics `fishing' for information beforereacting to their claimed impetus (whether discarnate humans or structured divination) rules outsincerity. So when mediums and psychics deliver accurate readings it is surely reasonable to regardthem as one of the following:-1.) Cold-reading frauds.2.) Sincere people who's subconscious minds `get lucky'.3.) Sincere people with access to information beyond the normal senses.Unfortunately the subliminal cold reading hypothesis seems to have been largely ignored by serious