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BO CO: BI TP LN
XC SUT THNG K
BI 1
A. V d 3.4/161 SGK
Hiu sut phn trm (%) ca mt phn ng ha hc c nghin cu theo ba yu t: pH (A),
nhit (B) v cht xc tc (C) c trnh by trong bng sau:
Yu t B
Yu t A
B1
B2
B3
B4
A1
C1
C2
14
C3
16
C4
12
A2
C2
12
C3
15
C4
12
C1
10
A3
C3
13
C4
14
C1
11
C2
14
A4
C4
10
C1
11
C2
13
C3
13
Yu t
A
B1
B2
B3
B4
A1
C1
Y111
C2
Y122
C3
Y133
C4
Y144
T1..
A2
C2
Y212
C3
Y223
C4
Y234
C1
Y241
T2..
A3
C3
Y313
C4
Y324
C1
Y331
C2
Y342
T3..
A4
C4
Y414
C1
Y421
C2
Y432
C3
Y443
T4..
T.i.
T.1.
T.2.
T.3.
T.4.
2
Bng ANOVA:
Ngun sai s
Tng s bnh
phng
Bc t do
Yu t A
(r-1)
Ti..2 T...
2
SSR=
r
i =1 r
(r-1)
SSC=
(Hng)
Yu t B
(Ct)
j =1
T. 2j .
r
T...
r2
(r-1)
Sai s
(r-1)(r-2)
Tng cng
(r2-1)
SSR
(r 1)
FR=
MSR
MSE
MSC=
SSC
(r 1)
FC=
MSC
MSE
MSF=
SSF
(r 1)
F=
MSF
MSE
T..2k T...
2
r
k =1 r
r
SSF=
Yu t C
MSR=
2
SSE=SST
Gi tr thng k
MSE=
(SSF+SSR+SSC)
SSE
(r 1)(r 2)
T...2
SST= Y 2
r
2
ijk
Trc nghim
Gi thit:
H0: 1 = 2 = ...= k Cc gi tr trung bnh bng nhau
H1: i j
Bin lun
Nu FR < F(r-1)(r-2)
Chp nhn H0 i vi yu t A
Nu FC < F(r-1)(r-2)
Chp nhn H0 i vi yu t B
Nu F < F(r-1)(r-2)
Chp nhn H0 i vi yu t C
Bi lm:
Nhp d liu vo bng tnh
Cc gi tr T.j.
Cc gi tr T..k
Gi tr T
Gi tr SST
Gi tr SSE
Kt qu v bin lun
FR=3.11 < F0.05(3,6)=4.76
=> bc b H0 (nhit )
Nhit (C)
X1
X2
15
105
1.87
30
105
2.02
60
105
3.28
15
120
3.05
30
120
4.07
60
120
5.54
15
135
5.03
30
135
6.45
60
135
7.26
5
Hy cho bit yu t nhit v thi gian/hoc yu t thi gian c lin quan tuyn tnh vi hiu
sut ca phn ng tng hp? Nu c th iu kin nhit 115C trong vng 50 pht th hiu
sut phn ng s l bao nhiu?
Phng php: HI QUY TUYN TNH A THAM S
Trong phng trnh hi quy tuyn tnh a tham s, bin s ph thuc Y c lin quan n k bin
s c lp Xi (i=1,2,...,k) thay v ch c mt nh trong hi quy tuyn tnh n gin.
Phng trnh tng qut
Bc t do
Hi quy
SSR
Sai s
N-k-1
SSE
Tng cng
N-1
SSR
k
Gi tr thng
k
F=
MSR
MSE
SSE
( N k 1)
Gi tr thng k
Gi tr R-bnh phng:
R2 =
SSR
kF
=
( R 2 0.81 l kh tt)
SST ( N k 1) + kF
lch chun:
SSE
( S 0.30 l kh tt)
( N k 1)
S=
Trc nghim
Gi tr thng k: F
Trc nghim t:
H0: i = 0 Cc h s hi quy khng c ngha.
H1: i 0 C t nht vi h s hi quy c ngha.
Trc nghim F
H1 : i 0
Bi lm:
Nhp d liu vo bng tnh
D liu nht thit phi c nhp theo ct.
p dng Regression
Nhn ln lt n lnh Tools v lnh Data Analysis
Chn chng trnh Regression trong hp thoi Data Analysis ri nhp OK
Ta u ra (Output range)
x1=f(X1)
Vy c hai h s 2.73 (B0) v 0.04 (B1) ca phng trnh hi quy x1 = 2.73 + 0.04X1 u khng
c ngha thng k. Ni cch khc phng trnh hi quy ny khng thch hp.
10
t0 = 3.418 > t0.05 = 2.365 (hay Pv2=0.011 > =0.05) =>Bc b gi thit H0
t1= 4.757 > t0.05 = 2.365(hay Pv=0.00206 < =0.05) =>Bc b gi thit H0
F= 22.631 > F=5.590(hay Fs=0.00206 < =0.05)
=>Bc b gi thit H0
Vy c hai h s -11.141 (B0) v 0.129 (B1) ca phng trnh hi quy x2= -11.141 + 0.129X2
u c ngha thng k. Ni cch khc phng trnh hi quy ny thch hp.
Kt lun: yu t nhit c lin quan tuyn tnh vi hiu sut ca phn ng tng hp.
Phng trnh hi quy: x1,x2=f(X1,X2)
x1,x2 = -12.70 + 0.04X1 + 0.13X2 (R2=0.97; S=0.33)
11
=>Bc b gi thit H0
=>Bc b gi thit H0
Vy c hai h s -12.70 (B0), 0.04 (B1) v 0.13 (B1) ca phng trnh hi quy x1,x2 =-12.7 +
0.04X1 + 0.13X2 u c ngha thng k. Ni cch khc, phng trnh hi quy ny thch hp.
Kt lun: Hiu sut ca phn ng tng hp c lin quan tuyn tnh vi c hai yu t l thi
gian v nhit .
S tuyn tnh ca phng trnh x1,x2 = -12.70 + 0.04X1 + 0.13X2. C th c trnh by trong
biu phn tn (scatter plots):
12
Biu phn tn
8
7
6
5
Y d
4
on
3
2
1
0
0
Nu mun d on hiu sut bng phng trnh hi quy Y= -12.70 + 0.04X1 + 0.13X2
ch cn chn mt , v d nh:B31, sau nhp hm=B28+B29*50+EB30*115 v c kt qu
nh sau:
13
Bi 2: Hai my cng gia cng mt loi chi tit. Ngi ta mun kim tra xem hai my ny c
chnh xc nh nhau hay khng? lm iu ngi ta ly ngu nhin t mi my 7 chi tit,
em o v thu c kt qu sau:
My A
135
138
136
140
138
135
139
My B
140
135
140
138
135
138
140
14
Kt qu v bin lun:
H 0 : A2 = B2 Hai my c chnh xc
nh nhau.
H t : A2 < B2 chnh xc ca my A
cao hn my B
F = 0.233 < F0.05 = 0.781 Bc b gi
thit H0
Vy chnh xc ca my A cao hn
my B
BI 3:
Mt ca hng ln c bn ba loi giy A,B,C. Theo di s khch hng mua cc loi giy ny
trong 5 ngy, ngi qun l thu c bng s liu sau:
A
28
21
20
18
23
Loi giy
B
35
42
32
25
27
C
33
38
31
42
29
Vi mc ngha =1% hy so snh lng tiu th trung bnh ca ba loi giy ni trn.
Bi lm:
y l bi ton phn tch phng sai mt yu t, mc tiu th nh hng bi loi giy
Gi thit H0: 1 = 2 = 3; tc lng tiu th trung bnh l bng nhau
15
Kt lun:
T gi tr trong bng Anova:
F = 7.5864 > F0.01 = 6.9266 => Bc b H0
=> Lng tiu th ca 3 loi giy trn l khc nhau
Lng tiu th trung bnh ca loi giy A l 22
Lng tiu th trung bnh ca loi giy B l 32.2
Lng tiu th trung bnh ca loi giy C l 34.6
=> Lng tiu th trung bnh: Loi C > Loi B > loi A
16
Cu 4: Vi mc ngha 0.03 hy phn tch vai tr ngnh ngh (chnh, ph) trong hot
ng kinh t ca cc h gia nh mt vng nng thn trn c s bng s liu v thu
nhp trung bnh ca mt h tng ng vi cc ngnh ngh ni trn nh sau:
Ngh chnh
Ngh ph
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
Trng la (1)
3.5
7.4
8.0
3.5
5.6
4.1
6.1
9.6
Chn nui(3)
4.1
2.5
1.8
2.1
Dch v (4)
7.2
3.2
2.2
1.5
1.C s l thuyt: y l dng ton phn tch phng sai hai yu t (khng lp):
Gi thit: H0 cc gi tr trung bnh l bng nhau
i gi thit: H1 cc gi tr trung bnh l khng bng nhau.
Nhp d liu vo my tnh:
17
FR = 1.9966 < F0.03 = 4.7407 => chp nhn gi thit H0 (ngh chnh).
FC = 0.1106 < F0.03 = 4.7407 => chp nhn gi thit H0 (ngh ph).
Vy, thu nhp ca gia nh ging nhau xt cho ngh chnh hay ngh ph.
18
Ni lm vic
V1
V2
V3
V4
1
2
3
4
212
222
241
240
200
205
250
228
230
222
245
230
220
225
235
240
Bi lm:
Phng php: phn tch phng sai hai yu t khng lp
Nhp d liu vo bng tnh:
19
20