2013 TAAF Games of Texas Predictions with 95% Confidence Intervals

Gender Event

800

Girls
1600

3200

800

Boys
1600

3200

Age
Group

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Prediction

Actual

Prediction

Actual

Prediction

Actual

Prediction

Actual

Prediction

Actual

Prediction

Actual

8&U

2:55 [2:50, 2:59]

2:58 (+0:02)

2:58 [2:51, 3:05]

3:05 (+0:06)

2:59 [2:52, 3:07]

3:05 (+0:05)

3:02 [2:54, 3:10]

3:09 (+0:06)

3:04 [2:55, 3:13]

3:10 (+0:05)

3:06 [2:57, 3:14]

3:14 (+0:07)

10&U

2:41 [2:35, 2:47]

2:35 (-0:06)

2:44 [2:39, 2:49]

2:40 (-0:04)

2:46 [2:43, 2:49]

2:43 (-0:03)

2:47 [2:45, 2:49]

2:44 (-0:03)

2:50 [2:47, 2:54]

2:47 (-0:03)

2:52 [2:47, 2:57]

2:48 (-0:04)

12&U

2:27 [2:22, 2:31]

2:26 (-0:01)

2:31 [2:27, 2:37]

2:28 (-0:03)

2:32 [2:30, 2:34]

2:30 (-0:02)

2:34 [2:31, 2:38]

2:30 (-0:04)

2:36 [2:33, 2:39]

2:37 (+0:00)

2:36 [2:33, 2:40]

2:38 (+0:01)

14&U

2:21 [2:16, 2:26]

2:19 (-0:02)

2:23 [2:17, 2:28]

2:21 (-0:02)

2:25 [2:22, 2:28]

2:25 (-0:00)

2:28 [2:26, 2:31]

2:26 (-0:02)

2:30 [2:28, 2:33]

2:28 (-0:02)

2:31 [2:28, 2:34]

2:28 (-0:03)

16&U

2:19 [2:13, 2:25]

2:12 (-0:07)

2:23 [2:17, 2:29]

2:19 (-0:04)

2:24 [2:20, 2:29]

2:23 (-0:01)

2:27 [2:23, 2:31]

2:25 (-0:02)

2:29 [2:24, 2:34]

2:28 (-0:01)

2:30 [2:24, 2:37]

2:30 (-0:00)

18&U

2:21 [2:16, 2:26]

2:17 (-0:04)

2:24 [2:18, 2:31]

2:19 (-0:05)

2:26 [2:21, 2:32]

2:23 (-0:03)

2:29 [2:23, 2:36]

2:29 (-0:00)

2:32 [2:26, 2:40]

2:31 (-0:01)

2:35 [2:29, 2:42]

2:34 (-0:01)

10&U

5:53 [5:42, 6:04]

6:04 (+0:10)

6:04 [5:56, 6:13]

6:12 (+0:07)

6:11 [6:05, 6:16]

6:13 (+0:01)

6:13 [6:09, 6:17]

6:15 (+0:01)

6:17 [6:11, 6:22]

6:18 (+0:00)

6:23 [6:18, 6:29]

6:22 (-0:01)

12&U

5:34 [5:22, 5:46]

5:23 (-0:11)

5:38 [5:25, 5:51]

5:37 (-0:01)

5:45 [5:38, 5:53]

5:37 (-0:08)

5:48 [5:44, 5:52]

5:45 (-0:03)

5:52 [5:43, 6:03]

5:51 (-0:01)

5:57 [5:50, 6:03]

5:51 (-0:06)

14&U

5:31 [5:19, 5:42]

5:16 (-0:15)

5:35 [5:24, 5:46]

5:22 (-0:13)

5:38 [5:27, 5:49]

5:22 (-0:16)

5:42 [5:36, 5:48]

5:22 (-0:20)

5:44 [5:37, 5:51]

5:22 (-0:22)

5:45 [5:38, 5:53]

5:32 (-0:13)

16&U

5:31 [5:26, 5:37]

5:16 (-0:15)

5:36 [5:31, 5:40]

5:31 (-0:05)

5:38 [5:36, 5:41]

5:33 (-0:05)

5:43 [5:36, 5:50]

5:36 (-0:07)

5:46 [5:39, 5:54]

5:43 (-0:03)

5:49 [5:41, 5:57]

5:44 (-0:05)

18&U

5:31 [5:20, 5:43]

5:28 (-0:03)

5:43 [5:31, 5:55]

5:28 (-0:15)

5:46 [5:33, 5:59]

5:30 (-0:16)

5:53 [5:36, 6:10]

5:30 (-0:23)

5:58 [5:44, 6:13]

5:31 (-0:27)

6:03 [5:49, 6:18]

5:33 (-0:30)

14&U 12:19 [11:54, 12:44]

11:49 (-0:30)

12:25 [12:04, 12:46]

12:01 (-0:24)

12:38 [12:16, 13:00]

12:16 (-0:22)

12:54 [12:40, 13:09]

12:29 (-0:25)

13:06 [12:59, 13:13]

12:41 (-0:25)

13:10 [13:01, 13:20]

12:59 (-0:11)

16&U 12:12 [11:48, 12:37]

12:15 (+0:02)

12:30 [12:22, 12:38]

12:19 (-0:11)

12:42 [12:38, 12:46]

12:26 (-0:16)

12:56 [12:43, 13:10]

12:41 (-0:15)

13:13 [12:56, 13:29]

13:11 (-0:02)

13:24 [13:08, 13:40]

13:18 (-0:06)

18&U 12:14 [11:32, 12:59]

11:59 (-0:15)

12:41 [11:49, 13:37]

12:03 (-0:38)

13:00 [12:00, 14:04]

12:05 (-0:55)

13:13 [12:18, 14:11]

12:06 (-1:07)

13:42 [12:59, 14:28]

12:15 (-1:27)

14:05 [13:14, 14:59]

12:17 (-1:48)
3:01 (+0:03)

8&U

2:45 [2:40, 2:50]

2:45 (-0:00)

2:49 [2:43, 2:55]

2:51 (+0:01)

2:50 [2:45, 2:55]

2:51 (+0:00)

2:53 [2:50, 2:56]

2:55 (+0:01)

2:55 [2:50, 3:00]

2:59 (+0:03)

2:57 [2:52, 3:01]

10&U

2:29 [2:25, 2:34]

2:31 (+0:01)

2:32 [2:25, 2:40]

2:33 (+0:00)

2:36 [2:29, 2:42]

2:34 (-0:02)

2:38 [2:33, 2:44]

2:35 (-0:03)

2:41 [2:34, 2:48]

2:37 (-0:04)

2:43 [2:38, 2:49]

2:38 (-0:05)

12&U

2:22 [2:19, 2:26]

2:19 (-0:03)

2:25 [2:24, 2:27]

2:21 (-0:04)

2:29 [2:24, 2:34]

2:27 (-0:02)

2:30 [2:25, 2:36]

2:32 (+0:01)

2:31 [2:26, 2:37]

2:33 (+0:01)

2:32 [2:27, 2:37]

2:33 (+0:00)

14&U

2:05 [2:01, 2:08]

2:08 (+0:02)

2:06 [2:04, 2:08]

2:08 (+0:01)

2:08 [2:06, 2:11]

2:08 (-0:00)

2:10 [2:07, 2:12]

2:09 (-0:01)

2:11 [2:07, 2:15]

2:10 (-0:01)

2:13 [2:10, 2:16]

2:11 (-0:02)

16&U

1:59 [1:57, 2:01]

2:00 (+0:00)

2:00 [1:57, 2:03]

2:02 (+0:01)

2:02 [1:59, 2:04]

2:03 (+0:00)

2:03 [2:01, 2:06]

2:07 (+0:03)

2:03 [2:01, 2:06]

2:08 (+0:04)

2:04 [2:02, 2:07]

2:09 (+0:04)

18&U

1:56 [1:53, 1:59]

1:55 (-0:01)

1:58 [1:55, 2:00]

1:56 (-0:02)

1:59 [1:57, 2:01]

1:59 (-0:00)

1:59 [1:57, 2:02]

1:59 (-0:00)

2:00 [1:58, 2:03]

2:00 (-0:00)

2:02 [1:59, 2:04]

2:01 (-0:01)

10&U

5:32 [5:21, 5:42]

5:28 (-0:04)

5:35 [5:23, 5:47]

5:39 (+0:03)

5:45 [5:40, 5:50]

5:42 (-0:03)

5:51 [5:41, 6:01]

5:48 (-0:03)

5:56 [5:45, 6:07]

5:49 (-0:07)

6:01 [5:48, 6:15]

5:56 (-0:05)

12&U

5:21 [5:09, 5:32]

5:00 (-0:21)

5:27 [5:19, 5:34]

5:02 (-0:25)

5:30 [5:21, 5:40]

5:26 (-0:04)

5:35 [5:27, 5:43]

5:28 (-0:07)

5:38 [5:31, 5:46]

5:33 (-0:05)

5:40 [5:35, 5:46]

5:35 (-0:05)

14&U

4:49 [4:42, 4:56]

4:46 (-0:03)

4:56 [4:49, 5:04]

4:49 (-0:07)

5:00 [4:55, 5:05]

4:50 (-0:10)

5:03 [4:56, 5:09]

4:53 (-0:10)

5:04 [4:58, 5:09]

4:56 (-0:08)

5:06 [4:59, 5:13]

5:01 (-0:05)

16&U

4:36 [4:30, 4:42]

4:27 (-0:09)

4:39 [4:32, 4:46]

4:38 (-0:01)

4:43 [4:38, 4:48]

4:40 (-0:03)

4:46 [4:43, 4:48]

4:42 (-0:04)

4:50 [4:45, 4:54]

4:50 (-0:00)

4:51 [4:46, 4:57]

4:50 (-0:01)

18&U

4:27 [4:20, 4:34]

4:21 (-0:06)

4:29 [4:25, 4:33]

4:23 (-0:06)

4:32 [4:27, 4:38]

4:30 (-0:02)

4:37 [4:30, 4:43]

4:31 (-0:06)

4:41 [4:36, 4:47]

4:36 (-0:05)

4:43 [4:37, 4:49]

4:39 (-0:04)

14&U 10:42 [10:13, 11:11]

10:42 (-0:00)

11:03 [10:34, 11:33]

11:00 (-0:03)

11:14 [10:47, 11:43]

11:09 (-0:05)

11:21 [10:54, 11:50]

11:12 (-0:09)

11:33 [11:06, 12:01]

11:30 (-0:03)

11:37 [11:14, 12:01]

11:34 (-0:03)

16&U

10:09 [9:59, 10:20]

9:40 (-0:29)

10:26 [10:13, 10:39]

10:24 (-0:02)

10:39 [10:28, 10:51]

10:28 (-0:11)

10:46 [10:36, 10:58]

10:33 (-0:13)

10:53 [10:40, 11:06]

10:35 (-0:18)

10:57 [10:44, 11:11]

10:38 (-0:19)

18&U

10:10 [9:47, 10:34]

9:56 (-0:14)

10:19 [9:56, 10:43]

10:02 (-0:17)

10:24 [10:04, 10:44]

10:23 (-0:01)

10:30 [10:10, 10:50]

10:24 (-0:06)

10:39 [10:20, 10:57]

10:24 (-0:15)

10:44 [10:27, 11:02]

10:47 (+0:02)

2013 Brandon Cooper

Lake Cities Track Club

Note. Format is "Prediction [Lower Limit, Upper Limit]". Predictions are based on geometric means from results (rounded down to the nearest second) at the 20082012 TAAF Games of Texas. Confidence intervals were made with a Student's t-distribution model
using logarithmic data. Some calculations may not appear correct due to rounding.