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Proposed Work Plan for the Counterterrorism Policy Team
Alexis AlbionScott AllanWarren BassDaniel
Byman
Bonnie JenkinsCharles Hill
Draft:
April 25, 2003
Contents
Project
Overview
Key
Questions
Proposed
Division of Labor
Initial
Document
Review List
Appendix One: Summary of Joint Inquiry
Staff
Work on PolicyAppendix Two:
Suggested
Readings
Appendix
Three: Notional Interview List
Appendix
Four: Proposed Briefings
for the
Commissioners
Project Overview: Counterterrorism Policy
The policy team seeks to understand and assess the development of U.S. Counterterrorism policy
before
theSeptember
11
attacks,thechangesin theimmediate
aftermath,
and thenatureof thepolicytoday. These tasks
will
require reviewing overall priorities, identifying and evaluating the
different
instruments used to
fight
terrorism (prosecutions, military strikes, extraditions/renditions, and so
on),
and
determining how well senior policy makers understood the threat
from
al-Qa'ida.
Another
integral
part of the policy team's
effort
is examining U.S. relationships with key foreign partners and
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adversaries
with regard to
counterterrorism.
When appropriate, the team will distinguish betweenU.S.counterterrorism policyingeneralandU.S.
efforts
to
fight
al-Qa'idainparticular.The nature of terrorism during the Cold War shaped U.S. counterterrorism policy when al-Qa'ida
began
toemerge. These earlier terrorists,in thewordsof
RAND's
Brian Jenkins, wanted"a lot ofpeople watching and a lot of people listening and not a lot of people
dead."
Their goals were usually
tied
to Marxist or
ethno-nationalist
agendas. The most lethal terrorists during this era were thosebacked by states, not those operating independently. In general, terrorism during this period wasviewed as an important but not overriding policy concern.
As
al-Qa'ida
and
affiliated
Islamist groups emerged
and
grew
in the
1990s,
the
focus
slowly
shifted.
The 1993
attack on the World Trade Center marked a turning point. For the
first
time, Islamist
radicals
sought mass casualties on U.S. soil. In contrast to the terrorists of the
1970s
and
1980s,
whohad balked at destroying entire buildings, the new radicals wanted a lot of people watching
and
a lot
of
people dead.
Several
government counterterrorism
officials
recognized the danger al-Qa'ida posed, but U.S. policy
changed
unevenly at best. The 1998 bombings of the U.S. Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania elevatedthe importance of terrorism in general and al-Qa'ida in particular, but policy still lagged behind the
immensity
of the threat. It took the September
11
attacks to dramatically change U.S.counterterrorism policy. Even today, counterterrorism policy
is
evolving, with important policy
decisions
being made almost daily.
The
policy team
expects
to
follow
a
normal
investigative regimen of document
requests
and
review,
briefings
by key individuals both inside and outside government, and extensive interviews with those
in
a position to discuss the formulation and implementation of U.S. government policy in thecounterterrorism arena. In addition, the team will draw on the work of the Congressional September
11
Joint
Inquiry
as
appropriate.
Key
Questions
At
the Commission hearings held on March 31 in New York, witnesses described their views of the
September
11
attackers,theintelligence capabilitiesof thegovernment,and thequalityof theUSG's
counterterrorism
policy before September 11. They also suggested improvements in these areas in
order
to prevent another tragedy. Based upon their statements and our research so far, we have
compiled
a list of key questions and issues that we think need to be addressed by the Commission.Thelistisdivided into three parts, correspondingto theoverall statutory structureof theCommission's inquiry. Most of the questions
focus
on Part I (the pre-September
11
era), as this isessential forunderstanding PartsII and
III,
which covertheperiod
after
theattacks.
Part
One: Counterterrorism Policy before September
11,
2001
Background
1.
What shaped counterterrorism policy
before
the
1993 World Trade Center attack?
What
was the
"old
paradigm"
regarding
the
threat posed
by
terrorist groups?
What instruments (law enforcement, diplomacy, military strikes, financial controls,
and so on)
were
used
for
fighting terrorism?
• How
important
was
terrorism considered,
in
general?.../view.php?thismailbox=INBOX&index=312&id=2&actionID=113&mime=ec70aeOOe84f263aO 5/1/03
 
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Strategy and
Priorities
2.
Did the USG possess a unified counterterrorism policy prior to September
11,
or did policy varybetween agencies?
Did our
strategy employ
all
instruments
of
U.S. national power?
What were
the
gaps
in the
strategy? Were they obvious
at the
time?
• Was
there leadership
and
coordination?
Did any
political concerns
affect
counterterrorism policy?
3.
Was counterterrorism factored into the design of key foreign policy measures, including policy
toward
Saudi
Arabia, Iraq, the Middle East peace process, Pakistan, and Egypt?
4.
Where
was
counterterrorism
on the
overall
USG
priority list?
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What were
the
other priorities?
'
• Did
money follow
the
priority list?
Did
high-level time
and
attention follow
the
list?
If
not,
why
not?
• Was
there
a
system
for
managing priorities?
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*7
Was there an integration of domestic policy and foreign policy on counterterrorism?
°"
f
With
the
knowledge available
at the
time, should counterterrorism have been
a
higher priority?
Was the
particular threat
of
al-Qa'ida
recognized?
5.
Were
any
"balls
dropped" during
the
transition
from
the
Clinton administration
to the
Bush
f
administration?
Were transition mechanisms
effective?
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D
nderstandingthe
Threat
7
6. Did
policy makers
feel
well-informed
by the
intelligence community
on the
nature
of the
threat,
(
~
both at home and abroad? At what stage was al-Qa'ida considered a threat? At what point was
al-/
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con
7.
Did theWhite HouseandCongress exercise
effective
oversightof theintelligence communityand
other
bureaucracies fighting terrorism?
~
1
Was
U.S. policy realistic given
the
limitations
of the key
agencies?
I
£/
In
formulating counterterrorism policy,
was
sufficient
attention given
to the
organization
of the intelligence community and its ability to combat terrorism?
In
formulating counterterrorism policy,
did the USG
focus sufficient
attention
on the
FBI'sorganizational abilitytocounter foreign terroristsin theUnited States?.../view.php?thismailbox=INBOX&index=312&id=2&actionID=l
13&mime=ec70aeOOe84f263aO
5/1/03
of 00

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