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FO B6 American Enterprise Fdr- 5-11-04 Gingrich Briefing Papers and Charts on Terror and Security (Fair Use)

FO B6 American Enterprise Fdr- 5-11-04 Gingrich Briefing Papers and Charts on Terror and Security (Fair Use)

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05/11/2014

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PRINCIPLES
FOR
INCREASINGAMERICAN
SECURITY AFTER
9/11
Newt
Gingrich
May
11,2004
SUMMARY
The
National Commission
on
Terrorist Attacks Upon
the
United States (alsoknownas the
9/11
Commission) has an opportunity to
describe
the system,culture, structures, budgets, metrics,
and
goals that America needs
to be
safe
in
an increasingly dangerous world.
The
greatest contribution
the
9/11
Commission
can
make
is to
tell
the
country the truth about the scale of change that is
needed
and then let theelectedandappointed
officials
makethecompromises.To achieve these goals the following steps would be
helpful:
1.
Focus
on the
future
security
needs of
America
using
9/11
as a
case
study
from
whichtolearn.It is notnearlyasimportanttodiscoverwhat's wrong with the current system of
intelligence
as it is to designthevalues, the structure, the metrics, systems architecture and theculture of the new system. The current system is a hybrid product oftheColdWarcompeting withthe KGB andbeing changed
from
theoutside by the Congress. It began with the FBI, OSS and militaryintelligence competitionof theSecond WorldWar and wasthen
first
changedby the National Security Act of
1947.
Trying to reform the
current
system is exactly the wrong strategy, what we need to do is
design
thetransforming 21
st
century systemandthen build bridges
from
the current reality to the desired end state.2. Future security needs are vastly greater, more urgent, and more
challenging
than people think:
1
DRAFT 5/11/2004
©
2004
All
Rights
Reserved
American
Enterprise Institute
Ph:
(202)
862-5948
 
a.
Weapons
of
Mass Destruction
(WMD,
mostly nuclear)
and
Weapons of Mass Murder (WMM, mostly biological but
with
some chemical weapons) are more real and much more deadly
than
either the American people or their political-governmentalsystemthink. Despite
all of the
rhetoric since
9/11,
America
is
much more like Britain
in
1935
than Britain
in
1940.
We are
vastly underestimating the threat and the urgency;
b. The
Islamic Civil
War
between
the
irreconcilables
(largelyWahhabi and Deobandi) and the modernizing wing
(very
small
and
mostly
in
Europe,
the US and
outside
the
Arab world)
and
the traditionalists
is
likely
to
last until 2070
or
later. Today
the
irreconcilables have
the
energy,
the
moral force,
and the
momentum. There
may be 39 to 52
million potential recruits
for
violence
and the
number
is
growing (source:
CIA
CounterTerrorism Center senior analysts);
c.
Centers
of
danger beyond
the
Islamic Civil
War
continue
to
grow
with
Pakistan (possibly
the
most precarious
and
dangerous nuclear-capable country in the world in 2004) andSaudi Arabia. North Korea
and
their
state-controlled
WMD
enormously complicates the intelligence challenges of
trying
to
focus
on
both non-state
and
state
at the
same time.
The
China-Taiwan relationship, Russia
and
Iran
are
additional examples
of
concerns America must have beyond
the
Islamic terrorist threat;
d.
There is an enormous amount of ungoverned territory on theplanet
(see
attached map
Possible Remote Havens for
Terrorist
and
Other Illicit Activity)
and there is no practical way toimplement a no sanctuary policy for terrorists without anenormous expansion
of
governed
areas
(the
map
illustrateslargely rural ungoverned areas
but
most third world large citieshave huge ungoverned zones in which police are powerless);e. There is a Gray World of people smuggling (including 800,000slaves
a
year), illegal arms trade, illegal international narcotics,illegal transportation and illegal crime of traditional sorts. ThisGrayWorld
(the
term is George Tenet's) provides a
gray
2DRAFT
5/11/2004
©
2004
All
Rights
ReservedAmerican Enterprise Institute
Ph:
(202)
862-5948
 
underside to the emerging global economic system and is a
force
multiplier
for any
terrorist group
with
money.
3.
Our opponents are intelligent, determined, and adaptive. Theyincreasingly study us and practice denial and deception. We should
find
it
very sobering that they could carry
off
bombings
in
Madrid,Chechnya and Iraq virtually
with
impunity. We should have noillusionsabout how
little
we have accomplished in trying to penetrateand
defeat
our terrorist opponents. Furthermore,
their
use of publiccommunications to convey their messages has been vastly superior to
our
efforts
to do the
same.
We
should
be
very humbled
by the
results
of
the
first
three years of the direct war between America andirreconcilable Islamists.4. Intelligence in a 21
st
century highly-complex world which includes
real
time information systems and weapons of mass murder and massdestruction
has to be:a.
Comprehensive;
b.
Real time;c. Demand pulled
across
all
institutional boundaries;d. Centered
on
human intelligence;e. Analyzed by
people
with sophisticated understanding ofcultures
and
personalities
we are opposing; and
f.
All of the above should be reflected in a completely new
form
of
daily presentation to the President, the senior NationalSecurityandHomeland Security
officials
and theleadersofCongress
to
ensure they
are
staying informed about
a
verycomplex real time world.5. To create the kind of large scale strategic achievements
Alfred
Sloandeveloped at General Motors in the 1920s and General George CMarshall managed in the Second World War you must:
DRAFT
5/11/2004
© 2004 All
Rights
Reserved
American Enterprise Institute
Ph:
(202)
862-5948

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