razor
‐
razor blade model and has a Free Cash Flow yield of 10%. Healey’s final idea was Life Technologies(LIFE), where he noted the 8% Free Cash flow yield and upside potential of 60% from current levels.
Mark Kingdon, Kingdon Capital Management
Mark Kingdon opened up with a slide on Bank of America titled “An extraordinary opportunity?” Kingdonnoted that Bank of America (BAC) is trading 5x normalized earnings. He discussed the severity of theGovernment’s SCAP (Stress Test), which he noted was rigorous. Kingdon noted his firm’s analysis arrivesat a Tangible Book Value of $11 per share for BofA. Kingdon noted the franchise businesses of BofA andits position as the largest Commercial and Retail bank. Kingdon arrives at Normalized Earnings per share is$2.24 using inputs of 1.2% for the loan loss provision and net interest margin of 2.75%. The loan lossprovision is quite high based upon net charge offs over the past 20 years, with the exception of a shortperiod of time around the S&L crisis and the current environment. Kingdon believes the net interest marginof 2.75% is conservative and should expand since the Fed has created a steep yield curve and there is lesscompletion in banking industry. His firm’s analysis leads Kingdon to believe that BofA haspotential to rise above $20 in a year.
Steve Mandel, Lone Pine Capital
Mandel started by noting the two components he looks for when seeking a margin of safety: price paid andstrength of business franchise. If given a choice of one or the other, Mandel’s preference is strength of thebusiness. In the current market, great franchises have been stagnating while cyclical rally is occurring.Mandel believes that Strayer Education (STRA) is one of those companies with a superior franchise. Thereis a huge, underserved demand for working adult secondary education and traditional universities not set upto serve these customers. Strayer’s graduation rate is above community colleges and its student loan defaultrate is low. The Company has partnerships with corporations to educate employees. Strayer’s operatingmargins are in the mid
‐
30% range. The company needs little capital to operate and grow its business. In2008, only 20% of $100 million in cash flow was necessary to grow business and the balance was returnedto shareholders through various means. Mandel believes sales and profits should grow 8x over the next 10years. Currently, the company is trading 25x this year’s earnings and 20x next year’s earnings. Thosemultiples should contract quickly as the company grows. The $2.5 billion market should be much larger bythe time STRA is a fully national company.
Jim Chanos, Kynikos Associates
Chanos’ presentation was titled “For profit social services from the trough to the slaughter house.”Following the 30 year deregulation boom in Health Care, Education, Financial Services, Defense andGovernment Services, the Government will be looking for payback. Health Care faces significant reform.Education is becoming a right and not a privilege and that will cut into margins. Investors find themselvesquestioning the very foundations of society. The Administration believes Health Care and Education arecivil rights and part of its legacy. Chanos refers to the groups at risk of seeing their profit margins cut byGovernment reform as Capital Offenders.Chanos highlighted For Profit Education where federal funding represents 73% of revenues at the top 4companies. The margins for the group are 27% much higher than the 12.5% of the S&P 500. Instructionalcosts as % of revenues declining, not reinvesting in educating the students. Government funding has fueleddouble digit student growth. Students at these proprietary schools are saddled with more than 58% thanstudents at traditional school. The companies valuations leave no margin for error.Chanos also highlighted the challenges to Health Care. Margins in the group are approximately 50% greaterthan that of the S&P 500. Big pharma spends 3x more on advertising than they do on R&D.
Add a Comment