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IRA SOHN CONFERENCE NOTES COMPLIMENTS OF BTIG/MIKE O'ROURKEPeter Thiel, Clarium Capital
Thiel is taking a long term time horizon and contrarian perspective as to whether this is a financial crisis atall. He asserted that productivity growth is the key to increasing the standard of living. Thiel explained thatthere are 3 ways to create productivity: Additional Leverage, Globilization and Science & Technology. Weare witnessing the results of the Additional Leverage. Thiel believes the virtuous effects of Globalizationare behind us. Instead of the disinflationary influence it has had over the past two to three decades,inflationary forces will take hold as nations compete for resources. In the area of Science and Technology,Thiel believes that things are not healthy in the ever expanding universe of human knowledge. Majorresearch is turning out to be fraud and there is actually less progress than there appears to be in science.Technology, the application of science and also has not made much progress. Examples include the venturecapital community, which has not made money in 10 years, there is no money being made in IPOs and thepoor conditions of the State of California. Thiel believes this is not a new problem and this has been goingon for a very long time. 1969 may be the year that progress died. Innovation has been barely enough to keepup with global constraints. Thiel referred to the Tech boom of the late 1990s as a fraud. He questioned howyou get high returns in a world with such little innovation. You get the high returns through high leverage.High leverage is a symptom and cause of failed innovation of the past 40 years.Thiel believes there will be no V shaped recovery until the productivity issue fixed. He also noted that hebelieves the U.S. Government is nowhere near being on the right track. And he would fade the recoverytrade, we will see inflation in assets we need (commodities) and deflation in assets we own. He believes theU.S. is radically misdiagnosing the problem. Washington is dominated by lawyers and economists and notthe scientists that are necessary to correct the problem. Thiel referred to the situation as the myth of technological progress and asserted that most innovation we have received is hype. He discussed large captech names in a pejorative manor stating that betting on established Technology companies like Cisco,Microsoft and Intel is a bet on no innovation. He thinks we should be looking for companies that are trulyinnovating, of which there are only a handful.
Joseph Healey, HealthCor
Healey outlined the great demographics behind the Health Care industry while analogizing the currentHealth Care reform movement to the Hillary Care movement of the early 1990’s. Healey noted that HealthCare is projected to become 20% of GDP by 2018. Advances in Health Care have increased life expectancyfrom 47 years in 1900 to 78 years today. Uncertainty about the Administration’s push for Health Carereform is creating an overhang in the group, similar to Hillary Care overhang in the early 1990’s. From thetime Clinton took office to the time Hillary Care was quashed in 1994, Health Care underperformed themarket and when Hillary Care was quashed, Health Care drastically outperformed. Once reform begins totake shape and there is clarity to the situation the stocks will improve. He believes the overhang created bythis uncertainty creates a good investment opportunity.Healey discussed 3 companies that he believes have significant upside potential. First, he discussed ValeantPharmaceuticals (VRX). The cornerstone for Healey’s thesis was the potential for its epilepsy drug,retigabine. Glaxo has partnered with Valeant on the drug. Wall Street has significantly underestimated theupside potential for the drug. Healey noted it is his belief that if Glaxo does not acquire or take over thecompany, then the stock has potential to rise to the $40 to $50 range. The second stock Healey discussedwas Hologix (HOLX), which he believes has potential to double from current levels. He described it as oneof the most compelling new product stories in the MedTech group. The business is 70% consumables with a
 
razor
razor blade model and has a Free Cash Flow yield of 10%. Healey’s final idea was Life Technologies(LIFE), where he noted the 8% Free Cash flow yield and upside potential of 60% from current levels.
Mark Kingdon, Kingdon Capital Management
Mark Kingdon opened up with a slide on Bank of America titled “An extraordinary opportunity?” Kingdonnoted that Bank of America (BAC) is trading 5x normalized earnings. He discussed the severity of theGovernment’s SCAP (Stress Test), which he noted was rigorous. Kingdon noted his firm’s analysis arrivesat a Tangible Book Value of $11 per share for BofA. Kingdon noted the franchise businesses of BofA andits position as the largest Commercial and Retail bank. Kingdon arrives at Normalized Earnings per share is$2.24 using inputs of 1.2% for the loan loss provision and net interest margin of 2.75%. The loan lossprovision is quite high based upon net charge offs over the past 20 years, with the exception of a shortperiod of time around the S&L crisis and the current environment. Kingdon believes the net interest marginof 2.75% is conservative and should expand since the Fed has created a steep yield curve and there is lesscompletion in banking industry. His firm’s analysis leads Kingdon to believe that BofA haspotential to rise above $20 in a year.
Steve Mandel, Lone Pine Capital
Mandel started by noting the two components he looks for when seeking a margin of safety: price paid andstrength of business franchise. If given a choice of one or the other, Mandel’s preference is strength of thebusiness. In the current market, great franchises have been stagnating while cyclical rally is occurring.Mandel believes that Strayer Education (STRA) is one of those companies with a superior franchise. Thereis a huge, underserved demand for working adult secondary education and traditional universities not set upto serve these customers. Strayer’s graduation rate is above community colleges and its student loan defaultrate is low. The Company has partnerships with corporations to educate employees. Strayer’s operatingmargins are in the mid
30% range. The company needs little capital to operate and grow its business. In2008, only 20% of $100 million in cash flow was necessary to grow business and the balance was returnedto shareholders through various means. Mandel believes sales and profits should grow 8x over the next 10years. Currently, the company is trading 25x this year’s earnings and 20x next year’s earnings. Thosemultiples should contract quickly as the company grows. The $2.5 billion market should be much larger bythe time STRA is a fully national company.
Jim Chanos, Kynikos Associates
Chanos’ presentation was titled “For profit social services from the trough to the slaughter house.”Following the 30 year deregulation boom in Health Care, Education, Financial Services, Defense andGovernment Services, the Government will be looking for payback. Health Care faces significant reform.Education is becoming a right and not a privilege and that will cut into margins. Investors find themselvesquestioning the very foundations of society. The Administration believes Health Care and Education arecivil rights and part of its legacy. Chanos refers to the groups at risk of seeing their profit margins cut byGovernment reform as Capital Offenders.Chanos highlighted For Profit Education where federal funding represents 73% of revenues at the top 4companies. The margins for the group are 27% much higher than the 12.5% of the S&P 500. Instructionalcosts as % of revenues declining, not reinvesting in educating the students. Government funding has fueleddouble digit student growth. Students at these proprietary schools are saddled with more than 58% thanstudents at traditional school. The companies valuations leave no margin for error.Chanos also highlighted the challenges to Health Care. Margins in the group are approximately 50% greaterthan that of the S&P 500. Big pharma spends 3x more on advertising than they do on R&D.
 
Currently Health Care represents 16%
17% of GDP that is 2x that of the rest of world with worse outcomes.There are 45 million Americans without health insurance the administration’s attempts to insure theseindividuals will cut into margins. Health Care gross margins range from 30%
70% and operating marginsare 50% better than the S&P 500. Government will look to take these actions to contract margins. Chanos isshorting Lincare (LNCR) where margins are still among the highest in the industry. He believes it will beposter child for what is about to happen to the Health Care industry.
Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital
 The U.S. Government is interfering with the free market forces trying to fix the economy. We lived in aphony “bubble” economy. The Government is trying to reflate the bubble. Americans are trying to rebuildtheir balance sheets and save to build wealth. As any drug addict knows if you stop using drugs you will gothrough withdrawal. Government is making the situation worse. We don’t need any more stimulus, we aresuffering from the stimulus we have already been given. Alan Greenspan and Federal Reserve got everyonedrunk on easy credit.Government has created moral hazard, i.e. Fannie and Freddie. The housing bubble was Fed and nurturedby the government. America is broke and our creditors are acknowledging that. What is going on in theglobal economy will not last and is beneficial to the rest of the world. Foreign nations will retool factoriesand create products for themselves. Our ride on the global gravy train has come to the end. The wholeservice sector economy has to go away. If companies are not profitable they need to go out of business.Nobody talks about the productive jobs the Government destroys by saving jobs at GM or AIG. Thedamage this time around can be far greater than Hoover and Roosevelt created during the Depression.Hoover attempted to bail out the economy and business, Roosevelt only followed his failed policies on amuch larger scale. Bush has followed bailout policies like Hoover, now Obama’s is following Bush’s failedpolicies only on a much larger scale.Japan was in a good position when they busted, we are in the opposite position. We can’t solve a crisis thatis the made of borrowing and spending by more borrowing and spending. Our creditors will stop lending tous. Inflation is going to run out of control. Ultimately that inflation is going to cause prices to go throughthe roof. We will not be able to purchase items to go on store shelves. This not a major collapse, it is arestructuring. The decoupling concept is here, but the US is not the engine it is the caboose.You need to own assets in countries where economies will thrive and prosper like Asia, and stay away fromUS assets. This is the beginning of an inflationary depression.
Lee Hobson, Highside Capital Management
Lee Hobson of Highside Capital presented two straight forward investment ideas, one long and one short.Hobson cited the opportunity in emerging markets where low (wireless) telecom penetration = high growthpotential. Hobson noted countries who introduced wireless technology later have faster growth curves andadoption rates thanks to cheaper technology.Hobson like Millicon International (MICC) to play this trend. Cellular service in emerging markets proventrend that offers affordability and high utility to the consumer. He equates it Coca cola 50 years ago.Building a strong internationally recognized brand among consumers who crave the product. MICC sellstheir service internationally under the Tigo brand. The product is accessible, affordable , available (strongnetworks) and serves the consumers need to communicate. Millicom has a 25 year emerging market history.They serve growing less developed countries with a total of 290 million people. Wireless penetration rangesfrom 10% to 80% in their markets –in developed markets penetration is above 100% (multiple phones). Thecompany trades 3.6x forward EBITDA and is growing cash flows at 20%. The companies growth can be

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