Cumulative Oil Consumption by the Human Race

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J. David HughesGeological Survey of Canada

dhughes@nrcan.gc.ca

GEOLOGICAL SURVEYOF CANADACALGARYCOMMISSION GÉOLOGIQUEDU CANADACALGARY

Sponsored byThe City of North VancouverGreater Vancouver Regional DistrictCapilanoCollege Global Stewardship Program November 26-27, 2006

Peak Oil and the Future of Energy

-

Patterns of Energy Consumption and Production:

Points to be covered:

-Magnitude and Distribution of Remaining EnergyReserves and Resources:-

Implications for security of energy supply

-

Where does Canada Stand in All This?-Some thoughts on the way forward:

Challenges and Changes for a Sustainable Energy Future-Forecasts -always arguable and debatable:-“economists vs. geologists” -“geologists vs. geologists” -“optimists vs. pessimists” -History-what actually happened “Hindsight”

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0200040006000800010000

M i l l i o n T o n n e s O i l E q u i v a l e n

1965 19701975 19801985 19901995 20002005Year0200040006000800010000

M i l l i o n T o n n e s O i l E q u i v a l e n

1965 19701975 19801985 19901995 20002005YearAsia PacificAfricaMiddle EastFormer Soviet UnionEuropeS. & Cent. AmericaNorth America

World Primary Energy Consumption: 1965-2005

By RegionBy Fuel

151%

218%

292%93%600%

439%

787%

62%

350%

87%91%

(data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2006)

173% increase in World Consumption 1965-2005; 2005 increase = 2.7%

Highest growth in 2005 = Asia Pacific 5.8%; Coal 5.0

%

CoalGasOil

N u c l e a r H y d r o

World Energy Consumption 1990-2030 in ThreeEconomic Cases (EIA, 2006)

0100200300400500600700800900199019952000200520102015202020252030Year

Q u a d r i l l i o n B t u

High Economic CaseReference Economic CaseLow Economic Case

+40%+85%+60%

Forecasts History

(History: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2006; Forecast: Energy Information Administration International Energy Outlook, 2006)

Projections(2005-2030)

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0100200300400500600700800

Q u a d r i l l i o n B t u

200320082013201820232028Year

By Fuel

Gas +92%

(data from Energy Information Administration International Energy Outlook, June, 2006)

H y d r o / R e n e w a b l e s+ 9 1 %

0100200300400500600700800

Q u a d r i l l i o n B t u

200320082013201820232028Year

By Economic Development

Non-OECD

Countries

+121%

(82% of 2006 World Population)

OECD

Countries

+32%

(18% of 2006 WorldPopulation)

Forecast Growth In World Energy Consumption, 2003-2030(EIA, 2006, Reference Economic Case)

72% increase in World Consumption (2.0%/year)

Oil +48%Coal +95%

N u c l e a r + 3 1 %

43%56%

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Hydrocarbons provided 88% of the world’s primaryenergy in 2005

Summary

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Forecasts suggest that 86.5% of a greatly expanded energydemand will continue to be provided by hydrocarbons in2030-Most of the balance of energy supply will be provided bylarge hydro and nuclear –sources with their ownenvironmental problems-The Question is:

IS THIS SUSTAINABLE?

……

Lets look in more detail at oil, gas and coal

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