UFPPC (www.ufppc.org) Digging Deeper LXXIII: February 16, 2009, 7:00 p.m.

James Howard Kunstler,

The Long Emergency: Surviving the ConvergingCatastrophes of the Twenty-First Century

(New York: Atlantic MonthlyPress, 2005). [Ms. completed in latter half of 2004.]Epigraphs.

G.K. Chesterton on “thefatal metaphor of progress” and “RF” onthe existence of the gods.

Chapter One: Sleepwalking into theFuture.

A rocky start: the first sentencemistakenly attributes to Jung the line“people cannot stand too much reality,”but it was T.S. Eliot who wrote in

Four Quartets

(

Burnt Norton

, I) “. . . humankind / Cannot bear very much reality” (1).Hopes American public will wake up and“defend the project of civilization” (1-2).“[T]he end of the cheap fossil fuel era” isthe most important fact (2-5). Malthuswas right, but cheap oil delayed theimpact of overpopulation (5-8). Speciesextinction and climate change (8-9).Microbes are making a comeback (9-12).Globalization was the post-Cold War “theIndian summer of the fossil fuel era”; itamounted to “a worldwide pyramidracket” (12-17). Capitalism is not reallyan

ism

but rather “a set of lawsdescribing the behavior of money as itrelates to accumulated real wealth orresources” (16). The U.S. has invested inan unsustainable suburbia (17-19). TheLong Emergency is a traumatic periodwithin “the greater saga of humanhistory” (20; 19-21).

Chapter 2: Modernity and the FossilFuels Dilemma.

The technologicalmarvels that are essential to the modernera—“the care, airplanes, householdelectricity, central heating, skyscrapers,radio, motion picture, hot water ondemand, X-rays”—all depend on cheapenergy whose era is ending (22-24).Peak oil—though it may be more like aplateau (24-26). We are poorly informedabout it due to a variety of social,psychological, and political factors (26-30). Oil’s marvelous qualities (30-31).Geology of oil (32-34). History of the oilindustry from 1859 to WWII (34-38). Thefateful post-WWII American decision toembrace suburbanization and theinterstate highway system (39-41).Hubbert correctly predicted U.S. oil peakin 1956 (41-44). The first oil shock,1973-1974 (44-48). Later recalculationof the global peak placed it in the decade2000-2010 (48-50). The second oil shockin 1979 and the “last great oil strikes”(51; 50-55). The 1990s were “a decade-long sleepwalk of complacency” (56; 55-57). The actual peak can only be knownretrospectively, but “crunch time” is here(57-60).

Chapter 3: Geopolitics and theGlobal Oil Peak.

The U.S. has a “sickdependency relationship with the Islamicworld” (61-64). The facts of the situation(64-67). The peak seen up close will be abumpy, stressful plateau (67-68). Historyof the Middle East (from an implicitly pro-Israel perspective) (68-76). The al-Saudfamily’s domination of Arabia is unstableand will fall “sooner or later” (76-83).China is a rising hegemon (83-85). Iraqwar was geopolitical, “setting up a policestation in the midst of a very large badneighborhood,” which includes Iran (85;85-89). Kunstler supports the U.S. war inIraq (85-87, 88-89), hostility to Iran (89-90), and war in Afghanistan (91-92).Russia and Europe are somewhat betterprepared for the Long Emergency thanthe U.S. (93-96). After the globalturbulence of resource wars, “all nationswill retreat back into themselves either inautarky or anarchy” (99; 96-99).

Chapter 4: Beyond Oil: WhyAlternative Fuels Won’t Rescue Us.

No alternative fuel will save us (100-02).Natural gas (methane) because energy

returned becomes inadequate to energyinvested (ERoEI) (102-10). The hydrogeneconomy is a laughable fantasy (110-16).Coal is environmentally destructive (116-18). Hydroelectric power can’t beexpanded much (119-21). Solar andwind power are vulnerable to “thequicksand of diminishing returns” (129;121-31). Synthetic fuels or synfuels areplausible only for military uses (131-35). Thermal depolymerization is useful only if the oil economy platform provides a base(135-37). The same holds for biomass,e.g. ethanol (138). Deep-sea methanehydrates are uneconomical anddangerous (138-39). Zero-point energy(ZPE) is exotic and unlikely (139-40).“Unless we want living standards in theUnited States to slide far beyond pre-modern levels in the absence of cheap oiland natural gas, we will have to usenuclear fission as our principal methodfor generating electricity for some timeinto the twenty-first century while wescramble to make other arrangements”(140; 140-45). Commercial fusionunpromising (145). Electricity is not asversatile as fossil fuels, so we’ll have “toreorganize virtually everything” (145-46).

Chapter 5: Nature Bites Back:Climate Change, Epidemic Disease,Water Scarcity, Habitat Destruction,and the Dark Side of the IndustrialAge.

Trouble ahead in the short term(147-49). Abrupt climate changeappears to be normal (149-53). Globalwarming can flip the Gulf Stream“switch” (153-57). The food supply isvulnerable to the combined effects of climate change and the end of cheapfossil fuels (157-61). Rising sea levelsand water supply problems (161-66).Disease and epidemics have made acomeback and will get worse (167-75). The history of the 14

century “gives usan idea of what to expect in the LongEmergency” (181; 178-84).

Chapter 6: Running on Fumes: TheHallucinated Economy.

Globalizationwas misunderstood by short-sightedélites (185-86). “Globalism was primarilya way of privatizing the profits of business activity while socializing thecosts” (186). Oligarchical corporationsfostered a fraudulent ideology justifyingtheir destruction as “creative” (186-89).Was it inevitable? Kunstler doesn’t know(189-90). Because of its high entropy,the American economy is unsustainable(190-94). Money and the early history of corporations (192-94). John Law and theMississippi Bubble (196-99). Emergenceof the modern corporation, 1840s to1920s (200-03). Speculation of the roleof entropy in the convulsions of the 20

century (2003-11). The post-WWIIAmerican economy, characterized byever-increasing entropy, based on the“twin engines of suburbanization andfactory production of consumer goods forthe whole world” (215, 211-16). The“hippie revolt” a jejune rebellion thatassumed cheap energy (217-18). The oilglut of the 1980s and 1990s put theAmerican public “back to sleep” (219;218-20). The information revolution andthe dot-com bubble was “the final fiesta”(220-22). Beginning in the 1980s,finance became a leading “industry” thatwas used to drive the economy, but thehedge fund LTCM’s derivative collapse,when Russia defaulted in August 1998,was a harbinger of things to come (222-28). The housing bubble, accompaniedby “the Las Vegas-ization of the nationalmoral sense,” was the last chapter of thisstory of “the greatest misallocation of resources in world history” (233; 228-33).“By the time you come to read this, it isvery likely that the housing bubble willhave begun to come to grief” (232).“[A]ll paper securities and money” willbuckle when cheap energy fails; “thefinal entropic consequence of the cheapenergy blow-off will be the demise of abstract relations between an asset andwhat it is supposed to represent. In theLong Emergency, we will be fortunate if enough of the consensus regarding value

remains unbroken to have any papermarker at all” (234; 233-34).

Chapter 7: Living in the LongEmergency.

Kunstler has an epiphanydriving to Corinth, NY, that this form of life cannot last, causing “a renewedsense of wonder—and nausea” (238,235-38). Kunstler’s view of his ownmission: to think & present a framework(238-39). In the decades ahead,everything will be “intensely local andsmaller in scale” due to the contractingenergy supply (239). Food productionwill become the primary activity asindustrial agriculture recedes and moretraditional forms (like those practiced bythe Amish) return; land will have to bereallocated (239-48). Suburbia’s “tragicdestiny” (248-50). Big cities will decline;smaller cities and towns have the bestprospects (250-56). The big global retailcorporations will “wither and die,” to bereplaced by rebuilt “complex webs of local economic interdependence” (256-60). Housing will abandon over-regulation and “probably have to returnto traditional masonry and woodconstruction” (262; 260-63). Travel willbe sharply reduced; the interstatesystem will become “unfixable andunmaintainable not far into the twenty-first century” (265; 263-66). Revivingrailroads is not necessarily feasible butmight be done piecemeal (266-69). Portsand waterways have been neglected butcan be resuscitated (269-70). Air travelwill be for the wealthy (270). Secondaryschools in America being a failure, theymay be abandoned; “[o]nly a tinyminority of young people will be able toenjoy a college education,” and manycolleges and universities “may closedown” (271-74). The AmericanSouthwest “may suffer inordinately,”with prospects for violence, invasion, andsocioeconomic collapse (275-79). TheSoutheast, whose recent economy hasbeen based on suburbanization, may see“delusional thinking, dangerous politics,and possibly mayhem” (285; 280-87).Some fundamentalists may consider theirbeliefs to be reaffirmed by the LongEmergency (287-89). New England, themid-Atlantic states, and the Midwest mayhave better prospects (289-93; this iswhy he decided to live in Saratoga, NY[305]). The outlook for the Great Plainsand Rocky Mountain states is dismal(293-95). The Pacific Northwest mayhave more difficulties than manyimagine, including coastal raiding byAsian navies (296). The prospects of racial conflict should not be discounted;this subject “might make some readersuncomfortable” (297; 297-301). Thenotion of the perfectibility of man thathas been fostered by Western civilizationwill be eclipsed (301-02). Traditionalreligion will return; “[l]ife will get muchmore real” (303). Strict morality willreturn (303-04). Psychologicaldepression will decline (304).Autobiographical addendum; “I’m not asurvivalist” (305; 304-07).[Scattered footnotes (rather scarce); nobibliography or index.]

[About the Author.

James HowardKunstler

, a modern-day Jeremiah, orCassandra, was born on Oct. 19, 1948.He grew up in Manhattan. His father wasin the diamond trade. His parentsdivorced, and Kunstler grew up with hismother and stepfather, a Broadwaypublicist. Summers at a boys’ camp inNew Hampshire provide the backgroundfor many of his novels. He graduatedfrom New York’s High School of Music &Art and SUNY Brockport, majoring intheater. A career in journalism led him tothe staff of

Rolling Stone

. He publishedseven novels, and then, in part inspiredby the New Urbanism movement of the1980s and in part by Peak Oil, turned tononfiction:

The Geography of Nowhere

(1993),

Home from Nowhere

(1996),

TheCity in Mind: Notes on the UrbanCondition

(2002). He has also publishedtwo recent novels:

Maggie Darling: AModern Romance

(2003), his first novel