Lighthouse Investment Management
Macro Report - US economic indicators - July 2013 Page 3
June 2013 highlights:
The likelihood of recession remained at 7%
Output by electric and gas utilities, industrial electricity consumption, miles traveled andgasoline supplied are the only variables showing recessionary tendencies
July 2013 trends:
Average monthly employment remained at 190k (prior: 189k) per month - just enough to keepthe unemployment rate from rising.
The unemployment rate would be significantly higher if it wasn't for a declining labor forceparticipation rate.
Retail sales growth accelerated a bit (to 5.4% excl. food), but slowing trend continues (+1.3%excl. autos over last 3 months annualized)
The probability for recession is low. However, economic growth remains very weak. Realdisposable incomes are not growing, and consumption is slowing. The recent rise in 10-year yields (1.6%to 2.7%) and emerging market troubles (Brazil, China) could have negative consequences going forward.