Chapter 1
An Overview of the Causes andEffects of Sea Level Rise
James G. Titus and Michael C. Barth
with contributions by
Michael J. Gibbs, John S. Hoffman,and Murray Kenney
INTRODUCTION
The average person's view that sea level is constant is not shared by everyone, and for good reason.Petroleum companies and their geologists find oil on dry land once covered by prehistoric seas, andpaleontologists find marine fossils on desert plains. Nevertheless, within the period of time relevant to mostdecisions, the assumption that sea level is stable has been appropriate. Only in a few cases have localchanges in relative sea level due to land subsidence and emergence been large enough to have importantimpacts.Recently, however, the view that current sea level changes are unimportant has been called intoquestion. Coastal geologists are now suggesting that the thirty centimeter (one foot) rise in sea level that hastaken place along much of the U.S. coast in the last century could be responsible for the serious erosionproblems confronting many coastal communities.' Furthermore, according to the National Academy of Sciences, the expected doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases could raise theearth's average surface temperature 1.5-4.50C (3-80F) in the next century. Glaciologists have suggested thatthe sea could rise five to seven meters (approximately twenty feet) over the next several centuries from theresulting disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet.A more immediate concern is that the projected global warming could raise the sea as much as onemeter in the next century by heating ocean water, which would then expand, and by causing mountainglaciers and parts of ice sheets in West Antarctica, East Antarctica, and Greenland to melt or slide into theoceans. Thus, the sea could reach heights unprecedented in the history of civilization. Until this effort, noone had attempted to forecast sea level rise in specific years or determine its importance to today's activities.*A rise in sea level of even one meter during the next century could influence the outcomes of manydecisions now being made. In the United States, thousands of square miles of land could be lost, particularlyin low-lying areas such as the Mississippi Delta, where the land is also subsiding at approximately one meterper century. Storm damage, already estimated at over three billion dollars per year nationwide, could alsoincrease, particularly along the well-developed and low-lying Atlantic coast. Finally, a rising sea willincrease the salinity of marshes, estuaries, and aquifers, disrupting marine life and possibly threatening somedrinking water supplies. Fortunately, the most adverse effects can be avoided if timely actions are taken inanticipation of sea level rise.Although action may be taken to limit the eventual global warming from rising atmospheric CO
2
,the warming expected in the next sixty years and the resulting rise in sea level are not likely to be prevented.Most CO
2
emissions are released by burning fossil fuels. Because these fuels are abundant and relativelyinexpensive to produce, a voluntary shift to alternative energy sources is very unlikely. Regulatory actionthat would effectively limit CO
2
concentrations is also unlikely. Such actions by any one nation, even the
*Editors' note: After the submission of this manuscript, the NAS released a projection that sea level could rise seventy centimeters by 2080, notincluding the impact of Antarctica (see Revelle, 1983).
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