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1st June 2009

This Thunder Road News was a bit more hurried than normal as I took a few days holiday at the Center Parcs resort in Sherwood Forest. In the neighbouring chalet was a lovely couple who had both trained as doctors and now work as psychiatrists in the north west of England. One evening we got chatting and they were telling us about their concerns for the future and how most of their savings are in UK government bonds and they weren\u2019t sure if this was the right place for them going forward. That was like a red rag to a bull and it was hard not to unleash a verbal tsunami about the need for everyone to protect themselves from reckless politicians and central bankers and to buy gold/silver, as well as energy, food/agriculture (they were already thinking about land) and internet infrastructure related investments \u2013 the \u201cglobal end of normal\u201d, etc, etc. I hope I didn\u2019t bore them too much.

The \ue000rst three investment classes had a stellar week last week as
the global in\ue001ation trade (or should we call it an emerging dollar
crisis) took centre stage while I was away: The 22.6% rise in the
silver price was its biggest weekly rise since April 1987. I\u2019m told
that a high pro\ue000le fund manager in London has personally bought

a cubic metre of silver - the investment case is becoming better understood! I stick to my view that before this gold and silver bull market is over, people will be discussing ownership of gold

and silver exploration companies over dinner in London and New
York.

Many people are getting optimistic about maturing green shoots in the global economy, but I still have grave doubts regarding the UK and US. These quotes from the Cara Trading Advisory (Bahamas) team after the close on Friday summed up my feelings perfectly:

\u201cWhat is going on today is atrocious. Where is the SEC these days? Do you feel like a frog dropped in the lukewarm water as the heat is slowly turned up, oblivious to one\u2019s impending demise? We do. Seriously, could Friday get any duller? Are the masters lulling us to sleep, trotting out their minions on Tout TV,

imploring us to invest on \u201chope\u201d, buying time as \ue000nancial \ue000rms
desperately raise much-needed capital? Then suddenly jerking
our chain, as they did in the \ue000nal moments of Friday\u2019s trading, to
be sure they have our full attention. Points of interest for Friday:
Paul Mylchreest
paul@thunderroadreport.com
This issue:

Demographics, stock market
earnings and food/energy
investments (here)

Gold - suspicious exports
from US (here)
2
\u00a9 Thunder Road Report - 1 June 2009
BGold (GLD + 2.04%) and silver (SLV + 3.62%) continued their ascent, particularly strong since Thursday
morning, the fundamentals too compelling to ignore;
BA rare combination of major bond strength (TLT + 2.23%) and extreme dollar weakness (Euro ETF FXE
+ 1.36%);
BAn unbelievable buy-on-close program, which drove the S&P futures +2% in \ue000ve minutes, which left us
shaking our heads at the co-ordination with Tout TV\u2019s usual talking heads; and
BThe Financials (XLF +1.42%) are coiling, getting ready for a large move \u2013 one way or the other.
But think, now that Government leaders have taken center stage, with promises everywhere; has
government ever come up with the most ef\ue000cient, most cost-effective solution? Wasn\u2019t government in
league with bankers to blame for this mess?
Most people lost nearly -50% of their net worth over the past 18 months. A week ago I remarked that
promoters were coming out in \ue001ocks. This appears to be the start of Silly Season \u2013 a bit like the summer of
1987. Please don\u2019t start swinging for the fence, attempting to get back what is \u201crightfully\u201d yours. Instead,
think singles and doubles, minimizing risk while ringing the register.\u201d
Demographics, stock market earnings and food/energy

A blog I\u2019ve started to follow is \u201cNathan\u2019s Economic Edge\u201d at economicedge.blogspot.com. Recently he wrote a piece (here) on demographics and the work of Harry S. Dent in particular. At the beginning he considers the extent that demographics impacts economics, highlighting the quote from David Foot in his book, \u201cBoom, Bust & Echo\u201d:

\u201cDemographics explain about two-thirds of everything: which products will be in demand, where job opportunities will occur, what school enrolments will be, when house values will rise or drop, what kinds of food people will buy and what kinds of cars they will drive.\u201d

Nathan argues (correctly I think) that the impact of demographics is far less than two-thirds as there are so
many other factors that \u201ccomprise the economic brew that add up to prosperity of lack thereof\u201d. One factor
he mentions is the rule of law (i.e. contracts with integrity), and I want to go off brie\ue001y on a tangent here.

Regarding countries without the rule of law, Nathan argues that they:
\u201care far more likely to be poor because their rule-shifting drives capital away.\u201d
I thought it was very interesting how Obama bulldozed through bankruptcy law in respect of the demotion

of Chrysler\u2019s secured creditors vis-a-vis their unsecured counterparts with stronger political connections. It
augurs badly for con\ue000dence in the US, just at the moment when it needs more \ue000nance than ever before.

Back to demographics and the subject of world population, the growth of which is \ue000rmly in its exponential phase. The planet is currently adding one billion people every 13-14 years and the population could double again by 2040. On a daily basis, the world population is increasing by 211,000 people daily. This is shown

in chart for below:
3
\u00a9 Thunder Road Report - 1 June 2009
Growth in the world population
Nathan then ties this in with the work of economist and writer, Harry S. Dent. I wasn\u2019t familiar with his
work, although I probably should have been. Wikipedia describes Dent\u2019s work as follows:

\u201cThe basis of Dent\u2019s research is the highly predictable nature of consumer spending based on a family formation pattern - minimal spending as young adults, spending more as raising children, peaking in that spending as children are leaving home, and then slowing spending during the last 15 years of working life

(48-63) while saving more and preparing for retirement.

In the late 1980s, Dent forecast that the Japanese economy, then the darling of the world, would soon enter a slowdown that would last more than a decade. In the early 1990s, he predicted that the Dow would reach 10k. Both of these predictions were met with much skepticism, and yet both eventually came to pass. In

Japan, Dent was using their peak of 45-50 year olds (1990-1994) as the beginning of a long slowdown.\u201d
While these were stunning successes, he did not anticipate the recession of 2002-03 in the wake of the dot.
com bust and predicted the Dow would reach 40,000 by the end of this decade. Despite this, I think much
of his analysis is not only thought-provoking, but also has a great deal of validity.
Nathan uses some of the charts on Dent\u2019s website, www.hsdent.com, to make a bearish case for the stock
market focusing on US data. The \ue000rst key chart is the birth rate index adjusted for immigration. This shows
the \ue000rst peak associated with height of the \u201cbaby boom\u201d generation in 1961:
Trend in US birth rate
Source: H.S. Dent Foundation
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