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Future Knowledge Ecosystems
The Next Twenty Years of Technology-Led Economic Development
Anthony Townsend, Institute for the FutureAlex Soojung-Kim Pang, Institute for the FutureRick Weddle, Research Triangle Foundation
IFTF Report Number SR-1236
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Abstract
The model of self-contained research parks and incubators that dominated the last fifty years of technology-based economic development is being challenged by deep shifts in the globaleconomy, science and technology, and models of innovation. This paper describes fourteenemerging trends that will set the context for technology-based economic development in thecoming decades. These trends are used to develop three scenarios for the future of technology-based economic development over the next two decades. In the first scenario, an incrementalevolution of the research parks model takes place in a world of rapid, but steady and predictablechange. In the second scenario, entirely new networks of R&D space emerge in a “researchcloud” that challenges current models to adapt, sometimes dramatically. The third scenario, theresearch park models is in rapid decline as R&D becomes highly virtualized and parks’ legacycost structure makes them obsolete for young firms. We conclude by highlighting the strategicimplications of these scenarios for existing and future parks and economic development.
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This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 United StatesLicense. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/us/ or send a letter toCreative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA.
 
 
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FORECASTING WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS
Forecasting and scenario development workshops were held during 2008-9. Organized by Research TriangleFoundation and facilitated by the Institute for the Future, these workshops were designed to engage a broad group of experts from different countries and different professions in brainstorming important trends and scenario elements.The results of these workshops are reflected throughout this report. The authors wish to thank Tina Valdecanas of the Research Triangle Foundation for organizing these workshops.
IASP 2008
Johannesburg, South Africa
 
Sue BellLa Trobe University R&D ParkJoan BellavistaParc Cientific de BarcelonaNeville CominsThe Innovation HubJeff FinkleIEDCEsteban CassinFundacíon Parque TecnológicoMisiones ArgentinaHerbert ChenTsinghua University Science ParkDouwe DijkZernike Science ParkMauricio GuedesRio de Janeiro Technology ParkDennis KekasNCSU Centennial CampusLex de LangeZernike Science ParkMalcolm ParryThe Surrey Research ParkJosep Miguel Piqué22@BarcelonaLuis SanzPaulo C. De MirandaIASPRick WeddleResearch Triangle Park
AURP 2008
St. Petersburg, Florida, USA
 
Pierre BelangerBellatechBrian DarmodyUniversity of MarylandBill DeanPiedmont Triad Research ParkGreg DeasonPurdue Research FoundationCharlie DilksDilks ConsultingVernon GeorgeGeorge, Henry, George PartnersRon KysiakIDEA PartnershipsAmy LubasNCSU Centennial CampusJohn MerrillGateway University Research ParkErnest PaylorWorldTech InternationalFernando QuezadaBiotechnology Center of ExcellenceCorporationLiz RooksResearch Triangle ParkLuis SanzIASPRick WeddleResearch Triangle ParkBob WilhelmUNC Charlotte Research InstituteBruce WrightUniversity of Arizona
IEDC 2009
Tempe, Arizona, USA
 
John AdamsEnterprise FloridaDorothy BaunachNorTechRonnie BryantCharlotte Regional PartnershipGary ConleyTechSolve, Inc.Gene DePrezCreativesheffieldMichael FinneyAnn Arbor SPARKNorma GraceUniversity of New OrleansJackie Kerby-MooreSandia Research ParkPaul KrutkoCity of San JoseGail LewisAZ Department of TransportationJudy McKinney-CherryJay MoonMississippi ManufacturersAssociationRobin Roberts KriegerGreater Oklahoma ChamberBill SproullRichardson Economic DevelopmentPartnershipEileen WalkerAURPSteve WeathersRegional Growth PartnershipRick WeddleResearch Triangle Park
 
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Online Expert Panel
To complement our face-to-face workshops, the Institute for the Future convened an online panel of experts inMarch 2009 to map trends in areas that will shape the future of technology-led economic development and researchparks: real estate, architecture, economic geography, public policy, entrepreneurship, history of science, andincubation.Thomas CampanellaUniversity of North CarolinaKamau GachigiUniversity of NairobiMichael Joroff MITIlkka KakkoKarostech Ltd.Steve KingEmergent ResearchMitchell MossNew York UniversityFergus MurphySRI InternationalMargaret O’MaraUniversity of WashingtonHugh O’NeillAppleseed, Inc.Rachel ParkCUH2AMatthew ZookUniversity of Kentucky
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