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Cell Phone Study

Cell Phone Study

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Published by Jermaine Freeman
Cell pone study
Cell pone study

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Categories:Types, Business/Law
Published by: Jermaine Freeman on Aug 16, 2013
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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08/16/2013

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92 American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 2013, 5(3): 92–125http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/pol.5.3.92
Driving under the
(
Cellular
)
Infuence
 By
Saurabh Bhargava and Vikram S. Pathania*
We investigate the causal link between driver cell phone use and crash rates by exploiting a natural experiment induced by the
9
 
pm 
  price discontinuity that characterizes a majority o recent cellular  plans. We frst document a
7.2
percent jump in driver call likelihood at the
9
 
pm 
 
threshold. Using a prior period as a comparison, we next document no corresponding change in the relative crash rate. Our estimates imply an upper bound in the crash risk odds ratio o 
3.0
 ,which rejects the
4.3
asserted by Redelmeier and Tibshirani
(
1997
)
. Additional panel analyses o cell phone ownership and cellular bansconfrm our result.
(
 JEL
R41
)
D
      w       ? T     — 
 New York Times
/
CBS Nw -   80   A       .
1
T      . O   w ,  125    x         .
2
I      
 New England Journalo Medicine
, R  T
(
1997
)
—, RT—              4.3. L            w         
(
RT; S, Dw, C 2006
)
.I , w,    40     7     ,     N Hw T S A
1
T       829   w     O 2009. T q     . T     ://www../2009/11/02/-/ 02x.
2
A   MC, H,  B 2006.*
 
B: D  S  D S, C M U, 5000 F A,P, PA, 15213
(
-: @w..
)
; P: D  M, L S E, H S, L, WC2A 2AE
(
-: ..@.. 
)
. T   AA, P B, D B, D C, Rj C, S DV, L E, R F,R H, M G, J G, E K, B Kz, P K, RMj, T M, E M, O N, J P, Mw R, J S, A V,G W  w      E D  UC B,  G S P P  UC B, H B S,  H S  P H,  MS  P H  C U,   U  C B S  B   . G W, G D, N E, Aw S  E O R   . W w      UC B’ IBER     j. D       ,      w.
G  ://x../10.1257/.5.3.92           ()        .
 
VOL. 5 NO. 3 93
 BHARGAVA AND PATHANIA: DRIVING UNDER THE 
(
CELLULAR
)
INFLUENCE 
(
NHTSA
)
, F 1  zz. C  w
(
.., 
/

)
 w   1988,       140  740     1993,       81    w    w — -        .N          w       . I  , w   q ,  ,      w      . S,w x   x w     z        2002  2005—          9
 
pm  w.W                           w . O          w     j    j C w-w        2005. G       w,           . W   , w     106,000 477,000      w     300  400  w. T  w,            -     US ,  ,          .F 2          M  T, F,  w . W  ww       ,      7.2   9 pm  w    “”  “ .” W           9 pm  w. W
1985 1990 1995 2000 200510.90.80.70.60.80.60.40.20
   I  n   d  e  x  e   d  c  r  a  s   h  e  s  p  e  r   b   i   l   l   i  o  n   h   i  g   h  w  a  y  m   i   l  e  s   t  r  a  v  e   l  e   d   C  e   l   l  u   l  a  r  o  w  n  e  r  s   h   i  p   (  a  s  a  s   h  a  r  e  o   f   U   S  p  o  p  u   l  a   t   i  o  n   )
FatalcrashesAll crashesCellularownership
Figure 1. Cellular Ownership and Crashes Per Vehicle Mile Traveled in theUnited States for 1988 to 2005
 
94 AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL: ECONOMIC POLICY AUGUST 2013
      
(
     
)
  30,000    26          9 pm  . T      9 pm      .W x  w            -     . I        j w z     , w      z. W     ,         w   . T     , w   -                      9 pm    z  w  .F 3         C  M T   2005       1995  1998.
3
T,  q ,      2005,    x   2002  2005,        9 pm  -   . W  z       -   w w      . P   w x ,  w          ,               .O            9 pm  3.0        
(
  1 ..    1.4
)

3
T    F 3            .
1502002503008
PM
8:30
PM
9
PM
9:30
PM
10
PM
   A  v  e  r  a  g  e  n  u  m   b  e  r  o   f  s  c  a   l  e   d  m  o  v   i  n  g  c  a   l   l  s
Monday to ThursdayWeekendFriday
Time
(
1-minute bins
)
Figure 2. Cell Phone Call Volume from Moving Vehicles for California from 8pm to 10pm in 2005

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