use its voting power in the IMF to affect policy changes. Japan leads in the ADB andits support for the U.S. cannot be taken for granted.8) Do you think Hun Sen looks at Burma as a cautionary tale? Or does he really haveto worry about that, considering that no one is talking about a full economicembargo on Cambodia?ANSWER: There are two tales about Burma. The first is that an authoritarian regimecan survive decades of western imposed sanctions. The second tale is that politicalreform can result in international support. There is no figure in Cambodiacomparable to Daw Aung San Suu Kyi who could win the current elections only tohave electoral victory denied by the Cambodian military. Hun Sen, like allauthoritarian rulers, is mainly worried about the veracity of what subordinatesreport to him. Hun Sen has to be concerned that he is not being misled by falsereporting by officials too afraid to tell him unpalatable facts. Hun Sen has been ableto influence election results using a variety of levers including the influence of localCPP [Cambodian People
s Party] officials. The bottom line is that despite electoraldeficiencies the opposition just does not appear to command majority support. If allthe imperfections of past elections were rectified the final result would still be a CPPgovernment led by Hun Sen.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “
Cambodia US Congressmen Threaten AidCuts
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief
, July 11, 2013. All background briefs areposted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing listtype UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues andother research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officiallyregistered as a small business in Australia in 2002.