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“What We’re Watching to Identify the Economic Recovery” 
Richard Yamarone
June 3, 2009 Director of Economic Research 
Argus Research Corp.
 
Hoping for a “V”-Shaped Recovery
Real GDP (%)
6824-4-2-8-6
'95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 F
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 
 
Leading Indicators Signal Some Degree of Recovery
Leading Economic Indicatorsvs. Real GDP Growth (Y/Y%)
810810
GDPLEI
4646
-2.5% 
-02-02-4
'85 '95 '05
-4
-3.0% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, The Conference Board, Argus Research Corp.
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