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“What We’re Watching to Identify the Economic Recovery”

Richard Yamarone

June 3, 2009 Director of Economic Research

Argus Research Corp.

Hoping for a “V”-Shaped Recovery

Real GDP (%)

6824-4-2-8-6

'95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 F

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Leading Indicators Signal Some Degree of Recovery

Leading Economic Indicatorsvs. Real GDP Growth (Y/Y%)

810810

GDPLEI

4646

-2.5%

-02-02-4

'85 '95 '05

-4

-3.0% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, The Conference Board, Argus Research Corp.

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