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Iran, Israel and the Effects of a Nuclear Conflict in the Middle East

Iran, Israel and the Effects of a Nuclear Conflict in the Middle East

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Published by Silendo

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Published by: Silendo on Jun 04, 2009
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Iran, Israel and the Effects of aNuclear Conflict in the Middle East
By Abdullah ToukanAnd Anthony Cordesman
June 1, 2009 
1800 K Street, NWSuite 400Washington, DC 20006
Introduction3Summary of Results6Proliferation of Ballistic Missiles in the Region17Effects of a Nuclear Explosion32Casualties Assumptions & Estimation37The Inclusion of Jordan and Syria47Israeli Nuclear Strike at Tehran and Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant54Nuclear Explosion Blast Analysis58Nuclear Explosion Fallout Analysis77Tehran-Iran 100KT Fallout Contours87Metropolitan Tel Aviv 100KT Fallout Contours95Damascus
Syria 100KT Fallout Contours 103Amman
Jordan 100KT Fallout Contours111Appendix119
This study presents a brief description of the major civilian effects if a nuclear conflict between Iranand Israel takes place in the future, assuming by then that Iran has a fully operational nuclearweapons capability, and the possible broader impact on other countries in the Middle East such asJordan and Damascus. Threat perceptions and security concerns between Israel and Iran couldreach to a critical point that a nuclear exchange becomes inevitable, even if limited in nature, betweenthe two countries.
Nuclear warheads have long been targeted at population centers in addition to military targets,with the primary purpose of destroying an entire city with just one or two nuclear weapons. Actualdamages are likely to be greater than that calculated in this study, due to indirect effects such asdeaths resulting from injuries and the unavailability of medical attention and facilities.
It is highly possible that in a Nuclear Missile exchange between Israel and Iran, one or two ofthe Iranian missiles stray off their respective flight paths and land on Amman the capitalof Jordan, with the other missile landing on Damascus the capital of Syria.
Furthermore, if a nuclear warhead missile lands in Tel Aviv, destruction will not be limited tothat city but would spill out into the density of the surrounding region. This will include theWest Bank and Jerusalem, historically the eternal capital of three religions and the history offaiths combined whatever the current balance of power. The Jordan Valley, the food bowl forJordan and Palestine, the ancient Dead Sea region and eventually to Amman itself. That is in theeventuality that a stray missile does not land in Amman itself that would shift the radius of impact anddestruction further out.

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