7/20/13Electoral politics, chemistry of fragmentation and future of Pakistan - Part IIwww.merinews.com/article/electoral-politics-chemistry-of-fragmentation-and-future-of-pakistan---part-ii/15883746.shtml2/5
Pashtuns of the province. Sindh would be the fierce battlefield of the province.The trends there show that PPP and MQM will lose in the province compared to the last elections. PPPis expected to face decline in rural Sindh due to its highly unpopular and publicly rejected decision of Sindh Local Government Act (SLGA). If the constituencies of Karachi andHyderabadare re-drawnundoing the electoral engineering of General Musharraf, MQM would come into its genuine electoralsize. Even if the manipulation of Musharraf government is not corrected, MQM is bound to decline if the elections are fair and violence-free in Karachi and Hyderabad cities.Election commission authorities found thousands of forged entries in the voter lists during early 2013mostly in MQM winning areas of Karachi. Last week, two gunny bags of Pakistani ID cards were foundfrom MQM office raided by law-enforcing agencies following a tip.If elections are tactically rigged by both the dominating civil and military establishment and / or heldamid extensive violence, they will no doubt harbor entirely different results. One possible scene may emerge in which PPP, MQM and PML – N become major victors, thus the government similar to theprevious one may come into existence.If the opponents of the status quo play well, which consists of left wing and secular nationalists fromSindh and Baluchistan and liberal PML –F in Sindh, they will be victors in Baluchistan and may gainmore in Sindh compared to their earlier wins. In this case, PPP will lose most in Sindh and some statusquo parties in Baluchistan.If any visible or invisible engineering by the pro-right elements is done or right wing unexpectedly exploits the emerging anarchy in the country, then no doubt they will gain better position in Punjab inthe form of Center liberal right PML – N, far-right JUI in Pakhtunkhuwa, FATA, and some parts of Baluchistan, JI may gain relatively more seats in Karachi, FATA and parts of Punjab. It is also possiblethat new center right PTI may do a bit more than the last elections, which means two or a little moreseats in the national assembly.It is for the first time in Pakistan’s history that leftist parties are running a relatively organizedelection campaign; however, the margin of their success is highly low.It is also for the first time in Pakistan’s history that Sindhi nationalists have decided to contestelections seriously, meanwhile pro-Sindh rights PML – F is running a relatively well-organizedelection campaign. It is expected that a few representatives of Sindhi nationalists, relatively moreseats of PML – F and some independent candidates may make cushion in mostly Provincial Assembly and leave a little impact on the National Assembly results from Sindh as well. In that case, the future’sSindh Assembly will not form an absolute majority of any political party.PPP, for the first time, will lose its historical dominance in Sindh Assembly; however, it may stillcontain a thin majority. If constituencies are justly re-structured according to the decisions of theSupreme Court of Pakistan and elections in Karachi are influenced neither through violence nor by the Khakis, MQM will shirk to its real size in the Sindh Assembly. In this scenario, there arepossibilities that upcoming Sindh Government may be a coalition one. At least major benefit would bethat no single political party would be containing required majority for the legislation.In Baluchistan, Baloch nationalists, JUI, PML – N and independent tribal leadership will be the major victors. In that, nationalists would be having choice to form coalition governments.
Ethnic and sectarian divide amid non-representative voters turn out
Pakistan stands lowest in voter turnout in the democratic world. The lowest most vote-cast ratio in thelast decade was observed in Baluchistan followed by Sindh and Pakhtunkhwa. This is mainly due totwo reasons: i) people of Baluchistan and Sindh do not repose their trust in Pakistan due to half acentury long history of exploitation, tyranny and oppression combined by the military operations andtarget killing of the leadership hailing from both of the province; ii. Majority of people fromPakhtunkhuwa and Siraiki areas have extreme dissatisfaction with the political system andgovernance of the country.Since the civil-military bureaucracy in the lifetime period of the country is dominated by the ethnic-Punjabi-Urdu speaker community, which particularly have a religious background of extremist version of Sunni-Hanafia, Deoband and Salafi school of thought, therefore politics of Pakistan today has reached at the climax of fragmentation on the ethnic and in some areas on the religious and
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