Economic Futures
for the Auckland Region
Part 2:
Scenarios for economic development
April 2009
This report was prepared by the Economic and Social Policy team at the Auckland Regional Council.Contributors: Carole Canler, Penelope Tuatagaloa, Ana Ili, Dominic Foote and Dr Catherine Murray.Modelling advice from Market Economics, and input from Infometrics.
Economic Futures for the Auckland Region
: Scenarios for economic development – April 09
1
Contents
Executive summary
3
1
Introduction 12
1.1 Context 121.2 Purpose 121.3 Scope 121.4 Methodology for scenario development 131.5 Users 141.6 Stakeholders 15
2
Long-term impacts of the current economic crisis 16
2.1 Short-term impact of the economic crisis 162.2 Outlook for the New Zealand and Auckland economies 172.3 Long-term impacts of the economic crisis 20
3
Scenario 1: Horizon 2031 22
3.1 The economic landscape by 2031: key drivers 223.2 Assumptions 243.3 Economic indicators in a nutshell, 2006 – 2031 253.4 Gross regional product and gross regional product per capita 263.5 Export 273.6 Employment and occupation 293.7 Environmental indicators 313.8 Sector-specific change in Auckland, 2006–2031 343.9 Sectors of interest to the Auckland region 41
4
Scenario 2: Digital Auckland 48
4.1 Background 484.2 Scenario description 484.3 Scenario assumptions 524.4 Scenario results 534.5 Conclusion 55
5
Scenario 3: Energy Ef
fi
ciency 56
5.1 Background 565.2 Scenario description 565.3 Scenario assumptions 575.4 Scenario results 605.5 Conclusion 64
6
Implications for the region’s future economic performance 65
6.1 Demographic changes 656.2 Labour force 666.3 Internationalisation 676.4 Business growth and innovation 676.5 Environmental sustainability 686.6 Industry structure 686.7 Infrastructure 69
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6.7 Infrastructure for ARC Economic Futures - Part 2
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