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Thunder Road Report August

Thunder Road Report August

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Published by zerohedge
Thunder Road Report August
Thunder Road Report August

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Published by: zerohedge on Aug 25, 2013
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10/13/2013

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report Thunder Road
Collateral: could the post-Lehman
reation be reaching its limits?
 August 2013
Strategy
-0.20-0.100.000.100.200.300.400.50-0.06-0.04-0.020.000.020.040.060.080.100.120.140.16
     S    e    p   -     1     2     O    c     t   -     1     2     N    o    v   -     1     2     D    e    c   -     1     2     J    a    n   -     1     3     F    e     b   -     1     3     M    a    r   -     1     3     A    p    r   -     1     3     M    a    y   -     1     3     J    u    n   -     1     3     J    u     l   -     1     3     A    u    g   -     1     3
Repos and Gold: enough collateral?
GC Repo rate -Fed Funds spread (%)Gold Forward Offered Rate (GOFO %)
 
Collateral: could the post-Lehman refation bereaching its limits?
 Page
Theme: leverage in the repo and gold markets 3
Repos - “the structural backbone for US nancial markets” 5Gold - the only nancial asset without counterparty risk (in a debt crisis) 14Appendix - A Map of the US Repo Market 24
Research: Paul Mylchreest+44 (0) 20 7190 7242pmylchreest@monumentsecurities.com
This is a marketing communication. It has not been prepared under the Independent Investment research regulatoryrequirements and accordingly there is no prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of this research material.
 
3
August 2013
Theme: leverage in the repo and gold markets
It’s ironic, or it seems that way to us, that two of the least understood nancial markets by equity investors
are two of the most systemically important – repos and gold. Even more ironic is how so many investors don’teven consider them to be all that important.
In our view, stability in both markets is a pre-requisite for maintaining condence in the nancial system andkeeping the credit/asset bubble inated. The signicance of these markets is not lost on governments, centralbanks and regulators, although the denition of “stability” in each of them is slightly different.
The greatly under-reported repo market sits at the centre of the banking system and the securities markets.It is a primary source of leverage and, therefore, risk. Time after time, the risks remain hidden until
events cascade beyond the point of no return. Stability in the repo market depends on condence in repo
counterparties (which can evaporate at near light speed, e.g. Lehman, Bear Stearns, MF Global and Long
Term Capital Management), condence in the valuation of collateral used in repo loans (remember sub-prime etc) and a sufcient pool of acceptable securities (e.g. Treasuries, MBS, etc) which can be pledged as
collateral.In stressed market conditions, liquidity crunches, declining collateral values and re-hypothecation (i.e. re-useof the same securities as collateral by more than one party) can undermine this market. This results in capital
being wiped out, a run on collateral and the telltale sign of spikes in “fails-to-deliver”, when a scramble to
post eligible securities ensues. Late 2008 was the example par excellence – here is what happened to fails-to-deliver in Treasuries (data is in US$m).
When stress emerges in the nancial system, the problem with the repo market is its tendency to be (very) “pro-cyclical” on the downside. It also operates pro-cyclically in terms of leverage and asset prices on the
upside, which always seems to get forgotten.
Stability in the gold market for policymakers and regulators implies a stable gold price, preferably at “low” levels (i.e. well below all-time highs), an efciently functioning gold futures market, ample liquidity in the
gold lending (leasing) market and no heightened desire among gold buyers to take possession of physical
bullion. A surging gold price, backwardations and shortages of physical bullion are proverbial “canaries in themine” regarding an overstretched system.
 S  o u c  e  :  J   e  s  s  e ’   s  C  a f   e Am e i   c  a i  n .
 
 S  o u c  e  :  J   e  s  s  e ’   s  C  a f   e Am e i   c  a i  n .

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