ANALYSIS& COMMENTARY
This chart shows the listingand sales activity for singlefamily homes during the rstquarter of 2009 as comparedto the rst quarter of 2008,and the fourth quarter of2008 (arrows).First Quarter 2009 vs. First Quarter 2008
KEY INdICATORS
•Salesweredownbynearly50%,onaverage,comparedtoayearago.•Thenumberofhomesonthemarkethasincreasedgreatly(up250%inPaloAlto).
LOCAL MARKETS CONTINUE TO SOFTEN
Thetrendofmorehomesforsaleandfewerclosedsalescontinuedthroughtherstquarteroftheyear.Thisimbalanceofsupplyanddemandkeptdownwardpressureonhomeprices.Weexpectthistocontinueintonextyear.Themostreliablewaytoestimatechangesinhomevaluesistoanalyzepriceadjustmentsonhomesthatareboughtandre-soldwithinayearortwo.Basedonourreviewofhomeswhichweresoldandthenre-soldduringthelast2years,weestimatethatlocalhomepriceshavefallenapproximately15%onaverage–moreforsome,lessforothers.
AN UPdATE ON OUR 2009 REAL ESTATE FORECAST
Inour2008AnnualRealEstateReportreleasedinJanuary,wepredicted“TheinventoryofsouthPeninsulahomesforsalewillrisesignicantly…creatingagreaterimbalancebetweensupplyanddemand.Asaresult,homevalueswilldecline10-20%onaverage…”Sowhathastranspiredduringtherstquarterof2009?Sofar:•Inventoryofhomesforsalehasrisensubstantiallyinalmostallareas•Buyerdemandremainsat•PricesarefallinginallareasWebelieveourforecastwillremainunchangedwellinto2010.
ThE BEST TIME TO INvEST IN LOCAL REAL ESTATE SINCE ThE 1970’S?
Onceeachdecadetherehasbeena“besttimetoinvest”inlocalrealestateafterwhichhomevaluesriseforseveralyearsuntiltheyhavedoubledinvalue,typically.Intherecentpast,theseyearswere1973,1984,1994,and2003,whichcorrespondstoatimeshortlyafterhomepriceshadfallenfor1-3years.Itwillsoonbe(ifnotnow)the“besttime”tobuyarsthome,amove-uphome,avacationretreat,orarentalproperty.Whatmaymakethisopportunitythe“bestsincethe70’s”isthecurrentavailabilityofrecordlowinterestrates.
WANT TO LEARN MORE ABOUT INvESTINg IN REAL ESTATE?
Itisgenerallyagreedthatrealestateisthegreatestsourceofwealthfortheaverage“millionairenextdoor.”Tohelpourclientsbuildwealththroughrealestateinvestment,wehavedevelopedapersonalizedreviewofavailableopportunitiesentitledSystematicWealthAccumulationViaRealEstate.Thereviewconsidersyourpersonalproleindeterminingthebest-suitedinvestmentoptionsavailabletoyou.Theseappropriateoptionsthenbecomethebasisofalong-terminvestmentplan.Ifyouwouldliketoreceiveanoutlineofourreviewprocess,pleasevisitwww.JeffAndSteve.com,emailusatJeffAndSteve@
apr.com,orcallusatthenumbersbelow.
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