Democracy and Democratization

Professor: Mehmet Ozkan Student: Envera Sulji 1010250 Wednesday, 28th March, 2012

Article review

China and East Asian Democracy Larry Diamond

Article China and East Asian Democracy, written by Larry Diamond (and with contributions of Francis Fukuyama, Mixin Pei and Yun- han Chu) in January of 2012, talks about changes that are starting to happen in East Asia, their causes and future. This area was never connected with near expansion of democracy because all focus was on the Middle East, but the truth is that if fourth wave starts in next five to ten years it will be from East Asia. Taking into consideration all these countries influenced by Arab spring and those who might follow same pattern (Egypt, Tunisia- fallen and Yemen, Syria, Maroco, etc.) only Tunisia has biggest chances of becoming democracy, while, on the other side, stable democracies already exist (Japan, South Korea and Taiwan) with Indonesia, Mongolia and Philippines as electoral democracies. So, according to Larry D. these democracies and position will help developing democracy in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Burma and China. It is true that electoral democracies need to adjust themselves more (problems of corruption, underdeveloped judiciary and weak rule of law), but the brighter side, and more important one, is fact that huge majorities of population in each of these countries believe in democracy. The East Asian countries yet to enter transition have much bigger and harder obstacles to conquer which makes their success questionable. Singapore has GDP of $56.522 and HDI1 0.8662, which makes it perfect candidate for transition (because it is so high). Current party is conscious of that because it faces waking up of opposition (Workers Party) as well as of youth. In Malaysia educated society, independent organizations and free social media is pulling it toward democracy. The high GDP ($14.670) and HDI of 0.7613 also plays important role here. But the situation with government is little bit different because they are trying to regain support they previously had. Prime- minister Razak tried to change some laws (mainly electoral- best and easier way to bring democracy), but these trials were criticized and described as too little, too late.
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Abriervation of Human Development Index; Diamond, Larry; F. Fukuyama; Mixin Pei and Yun- han Chu, 'China and East Asian Democracy'; Journal of Democracy, january 2012; page: 9 3 Diamond, Larry; F. Fukuyama; Mixin Pei and Yun- han Chu, 'China and East Asian Democracy'; Journal of Democracy, january 2012; page: 9

Democracy and Democratization

Professor: Mehmet Ozkan Student: Envera Sulji 1010250 Wednesday, 28th March, 2012

Situation is different in Thailand and Burma with GDP not so high, but with the rising level of modernization. Thailand faced many problems, but after coup in 2006 it gained more freedom and things are slowly stabilizing. In Burma authoritarian leader is democratizing influenced by global happenings and their transition can be with least turbulence. China is special case with GDP 7.519 and HDI 0.6874, with economic growth faster than anywhere else and situation that seems to function so many discuss why to change it? In 1996 some predictions came that by 2015 China will be half democratic and by 2025 the full democracy will be achieved. But the current situation is showing us that the transition (if ever happens) will not be step-by-step, but sudden and fast. Modernization and stronger relationship with Taiwan are driving force of democracy despite crisis government is facing. They do not want to enter the path of liberalizing because of fear not to end as Soviet Union in Gorbachevs hands in 1980s. What they do not realize are next facts that are much dangerous: a) Increasing frustration among citizens because economic development is not followed by checks of corruption and abuses of power; b) Problems with one- child policy (fast aging); c) Slowed urbanization; d) Shrinking of labor force; e) Education on limit- not enough white- collar jobs5; Chinese Communist Party has two choices and either of them is good for it. It can leave government to democrats or can find way to fix these problems with further result in creating strong middle class which will then bring democracy. Political stability is illusion and will change (in 5- 10 years) sooner or later. There is risk that something worse might come on the stage, but it will not probably last too long (if the strong middle class exist). In the conclusion we can say that in least 2 generations East Asia will be democratic and that will largely influence spread of democracy on global level. Reasons for it are tangible democratization in Malaysia and Singapore, trials of it in Thailand and Burma and only sights of transition to democracy in China.

Diamond, Larry; F. Fukuyama; Mixin Pei and Yun- han Chu, 'China and East Asian Democracy'; Journal of Democracy, january 2012; page: 9 5 Related to workers whose work does not include manual labor. American Heritage Dictionary, 4th edition; Bantam Dell, New York, 2007; page:928;