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Brookings Institution: Which Path to Persia?

Brookings Institution: Which Path to Persia?

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Published by ThePublicRecord
"...it would be far more preferable if the United States could cite an Iranian provocation as justification for the airstrikes before launching them. Clearly, the more outrageous, the more deadly, and the more unprovoked the Iranian action, the better off the United States would be. Of course, it would be very difficult for the United States to goad Iran into such a provocation without the rest of the world recognizing this game, which would then undermine it. (One method that would have some possibility of success would be to ratchet up covert regime change efforts in the hope that Tehran would retaliate overtly, or even semi-overtly, which could then be portrayed as an unprovoked act of Iranian aggression.)

It would not be inevitable that Iran would lash out violently in response to an American air campaign, but no American president should blithely assume that it would not. However, because many Iranian leaders would likely be looking to emerge from the fighting in as advantageous a strategic position as possible, and because they would likely calculate that playing the victim would be their best route to that goal, they might well refrain from such retaliatory missile attacks."


"...it would be far more preferable if the United States could cite an Iranian provocation as justification for the airstrikes before launching them. Clearly, the more outrageous, the more deadly, and the more unprovoked the Iranian action, the better off the United States would be. Of course, it would be very difficult for the United States to goad Iran into such a provocation without the rest of the world recognizing this game, which would then undermine it. (One method that would have some possibility of success would be to ratchet up covert regime change efforts in the hope that Tehran would retaliate overtly, or even semi-overtly, which could then be portrayed as an unprovoked act of Iranian aggression.)

It would not be inevitable that Iran would lash out violently in response to an American air campaign, but no American president should blithely assume that it would not. However, because many Iranian leaders would likely be looking to emerge from the fighting in as advantageous a strategic position as possible, and because they would likely calculate that playing the victim would be their best route to that goal, they might well refrain from such retaliatory missile attacks."


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Published by: ThePublicRecord on Aug 28, 2013
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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01/15/2014

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WHICH PATH TO PERSIA?
Options for a New AmericanStrategy toward Iran
Kenneth M. PollackDaniel L. BymanMartin IndykSuzanne MaloneyMichael E. O’HanlonBruce Riedel
ANALYSIS PAPERNumber 20, June 2009
 
W P  P?
ptions or a New mericantrategy toward ran
Kenneth M. PollackDaniel L. BymanMartin ndykuzanne MaloneyMichael . ’anlonBruce iedel
ANALYSIS PAPERNumber 20, June 2009

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