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ASEAN Economic Bulletin Vol.26, No.1, April 2009 - Vietnam.. Avoiding the Middle-Income Trap

ASEAN Economic Bulletin Vol.26, No.1, April 2009 - Vietnam.. Avoiding the Middle-Income Trap

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ASEAN Economic Bulletin25Vol. 26, No. 1, April 2009
 ASEAN Economic Bulletin Vol. 26, No. 1 (2009), pp. 25–43
ISSN 0217-4472 print / ISSN 1793-2831 electronic© 2009 ISEASDOI: 10.1355/ae26-1c
Avoiding the Middle-Income Trap
Renovating Industrial Policy Formulationin Vietnam
Kenichi Ohno
Vietnam’s growth in the last one-and-half decades has been driven by the liberalization effectand large inflows of external purchasing power. Now that the processes of systemic transitionand global integration have deepened, Vietnam needs to create internal value to continue togrow and avoid the “middle-income trap”. The country has reached the point where growthtowards higher income cannot be secured unless policy making is renovated significantly toactivate the country’s full potential. The vision of 
Industrialization and Modernization
to beachieved by 2020 must be backed by realistic industrial strategies and concrete action plans,which are currently lacking. Stakeholder involvement in policy design, inter-ministerialcoordination, clear directives from the top, and incentive structure for government officialsmust be improved. This in turn calls for radical changes in policy administration. A new styleof leadership, a technocrat team directly serving the top leader, and strategic alliance withinternational partners are proposed as key entry points for the renovation of Vietnam’sindustrial policy formulation.
Keywords:
Vietnam, industrialization, industrial policy, economic growth.
I.Entering a New Era
The Vietnamese economy has grown rapidly withthe average growth rate of 7.6 per cent in 1991– 2008. In 1990, Vietnam was among the world’spoorest countries with GDP per capita of US$98(ADB data). By 2008, with the GDP per capita of US$1,024, Vietnam has already reached the statusof a lower middle-income country by the WorldBank classification method.
1
The growth has beenbroad-based and touches virtually everyone’s lifeand generates profound social changes in theentire country. This is quite different from theexperiences in Latin America or Sub-SaharanAfrica where growth occurs in limited sectors andbenefits only few people while poor farmers seelittle improvement in their lives. However,Vietnam’s achievements up to now have beendriven mainly by one-time liberalization effectsand external forces associated with globalintegration rather than internal strengths. Despiteimpressive growth records and reform efforts inthe last one-and-half decades, local firms remain
 
ASEAN Economic Bulletin26Vol. 26, No. 1, April 2009
generally uncompetitive, and policies andinstitutions remain very weak by East Asianstandards.From the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s, growthwas stimulated by the incentive and reallocationeffects of internal economic liberalization (
doimoi
). Subsequently, from the mid-1990s to thepresent, growth has been supported by new tradeopportunities as well as large inflows of foreignfunds. Industrial activities — especially manu-factured exports — continue to be dominated byforeign firms, and value creation by local firmsand workers has been limited. Now that Vietnamis nearing the final stages of systemic transitionand global integration, productivity breakthroughis needed to climb further. Future growth must befuelled by skill and technology rather than a mereinjection of purchasing power.Growth statistics presented in Table 1 areconsistent with this interpretation. Until the mid-1990s, the incremental capital-output ratio (ICOR)was low and the contribution of total factor productivity (TFP) to growth was high, whichindicates that growth was achieved throughimproved efficiency — albeit from a very lowlevel of planning years — without muchinvestment.
2
In the latter period, ICOR rose, TFP’scontribution to growth declined, and capital’scontribution increased significantly. That is anindication of investment-driven growth with lowefficiency in capital use.The “Washington Consensus” policy packageprescribed by the World Bank and theInternational Monetary Fund such asliberalization, privatization, legal reforms,macroeconomic stability, and so on, may achievemiddle income if they are properly executed, butthat is not enough for continued growth to higher income. Vietnam’s growth pattern basicallyfollows the past experiences of East Asianneighbours whose features include openness andregional integration as an initiator of growth;deepening intra-regional trade and foreign directinvestment (FDI); high savings and investment;dynamic transformation of industrial structure;urbanization and rural-urban migration; andgrowth-generated problems such as income andwealth gaps, congestion, pollution, financialbubbles, and so on. At the same time, a number of new elements for Vietnam, such as faster integration than ASEAN-4, must also beacknowledged.Within this dynamic East Asian context,Vietnam must successfully conduct three crucialpolicies to sustain growth, namely: (i) generationof internal value; (ii) coping with new socialproblems caused by rapid growth; and (iii) effectivemacroeconomic management under financialintegration. The first promotes drivers of growthwhile the second and the third prepare politicalstability and social support without whichindustrialization and modernization cannot besustained. By 2008, the risks of social problemssuch as traffic congestion and environmentaldestruction as well as macroeconomic imbalancesuch as asset bubbles and price instability hadbecome evident in Vietnam. Management of industrialization in this broad sense must beinstalled to face new challenges, or the entireprocess of industrialization may stall (Murakami1992, 1994). While all three tasks are important,the present analysis focuses on the first issue of internal value creation while leaving the discussionof the remaining two to other occasions.
II.The Middle-Income Trap
A low-income country which has gone through awar, political turmoil, socialist planning, and severeeconomic mismanagement is usually characterizedby a fragile economic structure. It relies heavilyon extractive resources, monoculture export,subsistence agriculture, or foreign aid. Internalvalue created by traditional industries such asmining and agriculture is small, but the absence of vibrant manufacturing activities makes them loomlarge in production and trade shares. This is stagezero on a long road to industrialization.From the East Asian perspective, economictake-off starts with the arrival of a sufficient massof manufacturing FDI firms that perform simpleassembly or processing of light industry productsfor export such as garment, footwear, andfoodstuff. Electronic devices and components may
 
ASEAN Economic Bulletin27Vol. 26, No. 1, April 2009
TABLE 1Vietnam: Summary of Growth Performance
GDPGDPEconomicReal GDPGrowth accounting Population(US$per capitasize relativegrowth(%)(million)billion)(US$)to ASEAN-4(%) ICORCapitalLabourTFP
199066.06.5982.2%5.16.643.949.53.31199167.27.61142.4%5.88.416.974.72.92199268.59.91442.7%8.713.014.572.52.23199369.613.21893.3%8.141.521.636.93.25199470.816.32303.5%8.839.018.542.53.14199572.020.72883.9%9.539.916.243.93.12199673.224.73374.2%9.336.41.562.13.34199774.326.83614.9%8.254.916.029.13.80199875.527.23617.9%5.864.118.617.35.59199976.628.73746.9%4.862.217.420.46.59200077.631.24026.8%6.847.413.838.84.80200178.732.74157.4%6.959.920.619.44.89200279.735.14407.0%7.144.227.728.25.01200380.939.64897.0%7.372.143.715.85.09200482.045.45547.2%7.861.521.916.64.91200583.152.96377.6%8.459.816.423.84.68200684.260.97237.2%8.257.114.328.64.88200785.271.18357.0%8.459.514.825.74.90
S
OURCES
: General Statistical Office (GSO); Asian Development Bank Key Indicators (2008); For growth accounting,Tran Tho Dat, Nguyen Quang Thang and Chu Quang Khoi, “Sources of Vietnam’s Economic Growth 1986–2004”,mimeographed, National Economics University (2005) for 1990–2004 and unofficial calculation by GSO’s SNADepartment for 2005–2007. Continuity between the two is not guaranteed.
also be produced this way. In this early stage(stage one), design, technology, production andmarketing are all directed by foreigners, keymaterials and parts are imported, and the countrycontributes only unskilled labour and industrialland. While this generates jobs and income for thepoor, internal value remains small and valuecreated by foreigners dominates. Vietnam’sindustrialization up to now has been basicallycharacterized by this situation.In the second stage, as FDI accumulates andproduction expands, the domestic supply of partsand components begins to increase. This isrealized partly by the inflow of FDI suppliers andpartly by the emergence of local suppliers. Asthis occurs, assembly firms become morecompetitive and a virtuous circle betweenassemblers and suppliers sets in. The industrygrows quantitatively through the internal supplyof physical inputs. Internal value creation risesmoderately, but production basically remainsunder foreign management and guidance.Obviously, local wage and income cannot risevery much if all important tasks continue to beperformed by foreign hands. Thailand andMalaysia have already reached this stage.The next challenge is to internalize skill andknowledge by accumulating industrial human

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