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www.iknowfutures.com
Wild Cards & Weak Signals
November 2008 – April 2011 www.iknowfutures.com
The aim of the
iKNOW
project is to elucidate and examineevents and developments potentially shaping or shakingthe future of science, technology and innovation (STI)in the European Research Area (ERA).
iKNOW
pursues the following objectives:
o
to develop and pilot conceptualand methodological frameworksto identify, classify, clusterand analyse wild cards andweak signals (WI-WE)
o
to assess WI-WE implications for,and expected impact on, keydimensions of the ERA Vision:
1.
Researchers
2.
Research infrastructures
3.
Knowledge sharing4.Joint Programming
5.
International S&T cooperation
iKNOW
will undertake the following activities:
o
Literature review and desk research
to obtain broad and deep insights on WI-WEby means of literature review and desk research.
o
Surveys, interviews, and a cross-national Delphi
to gather EU and internationalviews on WI-WE. This will be followed by four national surveys looking at potentialimpacts of WI-WE on national and sub-national issues.
o
National workshops
to promote interactive discussions with key stakeholders inorder to gain insights and inputs to the subsequent working packages as well asfeedback on interim results gained from cross-national and national surveys.
o
Case studies
to contextualise findings and develop an in-depth understanding of how WI-WE relate to national and regional policy issues, in particular those related tomajor pan-European goals.
o
Development of IT tools and applications
to test and innovate in terms of theuse of web-based tools that will go beyond simply disseminating and deliveringresults. These tools will provide environments for user communities to go about theirown WI-WE analysis.
iNTERCONNECTING KNOWLEDGE FOR THE EARLY IDENTIFICATION OF KEY ISSUES(E.G. WILD CARDS AND WEAK SIGNALS)SHAPING OR SHAKING THE FUTURE OFSCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATIONIN THEEUROPEAN RESEARCH AREA
 
 
o
Validation and dissemination
of findings of the project, through policy toolkitsand practical guides aimed at supporting policy-makers and the foresight community.
iKNOW
Project DescriptionIn recent years, Foresight has emerged as a key instrument for the development andimplementation of research and innovation policies with long-term perspectives. Someactivities show an interesting mix of approaches combining three types of elements:prospective studies of long-term opportunities and alternatives, participatorynetworking, and policy orientation. However, far too little attention has been paid to theidentification and analysis of Wild Cards and Weak Signals (WI-WE).Weak Signals are ‘not necessarily important things’ which do not seem to have a strongimpact in the present but which could be the trigger for major events in the future (e.g.changes in public attitudes to one thing or another, an emerging pattern of concernabout emerging health problems). Finding weak signals is one of the most challengingtasks in futures research and their analysis often leads to the identification of WildCards. The latter are surprising and unexpected events with low ‘perceived probability’ of occurrence but with very high impact (e.g. the 2001 attack to the World Trade Centreon September 11, major disasters in environmental or technological systems, etc.).
iKNOW
is managed by a consortium of 8 partner institutions from 5 countries(in alphabetical order)
o
CZECH REPUBLICTechnology Centre of the Academy of Sciences
o
CZECH REPUBLICCyberFox
o
FINLANDMindcom Ltd
o
FINLANDFinland Futures Research Centre
o
GERMANYZ-Punkt
o
ISRAELInterdisciplinary Centre for Technology Analysis and Forecasting
o
UNITED KINGDOMRTC North
o
UNITED KINGDOMPREST Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
iKNOW
 is funded by the European Community’s Cooperation Programme under the SeventhFramework Programme for Research and Technology Development (Contract Number:225695)Project Cost: 1.09million euro Project Funding: 839,861euro ContactPREST Manchester Institute of Innovation ResearchManchester Business School, Precinct CentreThe University of Manchester, Booth Street WestHarold Hankins Building, Manchester, M15 6PB, UKProject Coordinator
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