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Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 1 / 48
Part I
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 2 / 48
What is monetary policy?
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 3 / 48
The uses of monetary policy
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 4 / 48
How central banks of mature market economies work
Election cycle in interest rates
Hence, political independence for the narrow task of monetary
policy
The central bank sets the short rate
The market either explicitly or implicitly knows the inflation target
of the central bank.
The short rate is unambiguously set by the central bank and is
known to everyone.
The “monetary transmission” : the market process through which
changes to the short rate lead to changes in all other interest rates
and financial prices.
There is no contradiction between financial sector development
and an effective monetary policy!
Key words: focus, independence, transparency, predictability,
accountability.
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 5 / 48
Money creation
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 6 / 48
Instruments of monetary policy in India
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 7 / 48
Part II
Impossible trinity
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 8 / 48
Monetary policy in an open economy
Impossible trinity:
Open capital account
Pegged currency regime
Independent monetary policy
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 9 / 48
Monetary policy in an open economy
Example
Let us say you have inflation and so want a contractionary
monetary policy.
You raise interest rates.
Since the capital account is open, capital flows in from abroad in
response to the higher interest rates.
This puts a pressure on the rupee to appreciate.
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 10 / 48
But the exchange rate is pegged
Example
The Central Bank buys up the dollars coming in to prevent rupee
appreciation.
This leads to an expansion in net foreign exchange assets of the
Central Bank and and thus of money supply.
Classic symptom of impossible trinity difficulties: raising interest
rates but money supply growth is surging.
An expansion in money supply will lower interest rates.
You cannot raise rates, and keep the exchange rate pegged at the
same time.
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 11 / 48
Monetary policy in an open economy
Example
If the US hikes the Fed rate, and India stays still, capital will flow
out and the currency will depreciate.
If the RBI wants to prevent depreciation of the currency, it will have
to sell dollars or raise rates. Both these are contractionary.
Currency pegging forces RBI to also raise rates.
Thus having a peg means following US monetary policy.
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 12 / 48
Monetary policy in an open economy
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 13 / 48
Sterilised intervention
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 14 / 48
Part III
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 15 / 48
Conceptual framework
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 16 / 48
Four phases of the INR exchange rate regime
25
Squared weekly returns
20
15
10
5
0
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 17 / 48
Four phases of the INR exchange rate regime
45
INR/USD rate
40
35
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 18 / 48
INR/USD volatility in the 4 periods
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 19 / 48
The evolution of the INR exchange rate regime
Period 1: April 1993 to February 1995 Period where trading in the INR first
began. For most of this period the exchange rate was Rs.31.37
per dollar.
Period 2: February 1995 to August 1998 The period of the Asian crisis, there
was the highest-ever currency flexibility in India’s experience.
Period 3: August 1998 to March 2004 Tight pegging, with low volatility and
some appreciation.
Period 4: March 2004 - Greater currency flexibility.
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 20 / 48
The evolution of the INR exchange rate regime
Period 1: April 1993 to February 1995 Period where trading in the INR first
began. For most of this period the exchange rate was Rs.31.37
per dollar.
Period 2: February 1995 to August 1998 The period of the Asian crisis, there
was the highest-ever currency flexibility in India’s experience.
Period 3: August 1998 to March 2004 Tight pegging, with low volatility and
some appreciation.
Period 4: March 2004 - Greater currency flexibility.
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 20 / 48
The evolution of the INR exchange rate regime
Period 1: April 1993 to February 1995 Period where trading in the INR first
began. For most of this period the exchange rate was Rs.31.37
per dollar.
Period 2: February 1995 to August 1998 The period of the Asian crisis, there
was the highest-ever currency flexibility in India’s experience.
Period 3: August 1998 to March 2004 Tight pegging, with low volatility and
some appreciation.
Period 4: March 2004 - Greater currency flexibility.
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 20 / 48
The evolution of the INR exchange rate regime
Period 1: April 1993 to February 1995 Period where trading in the INR first
began. For most of this period the exchange rate was Rs.31.37
per dollar.
Period 2: February 1995 to August 1998 The period of the Asian crisis, there
was the highest-ever currency flexibility in India’s experience.
Period 3: August 1998 to March 2004 Tight pegging, with low volatility and
some appreciation.
Period 4: March 2004 - Greater currency flexibility.
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 20 / 48
Monetary policy in the four phases
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 21 / 48
Period 1
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 22 / 48
Period 2: “loss of control”
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 23 / 48
Period 3: Successful sterilised intervention
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 24 / 48
Part IV
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 25 / 48
Challenge of open economy
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 26 / 48
Difficulties
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 27 / 48
Massive reserves buildup
Phase IV
FX Reserves
180
160
Billion USD
140
120
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 29 / 48
Ineffectual sterilisation - OMO + MSS
Phase IV
OMO+MSS
RBI fx purchases
40000
20000
Rs. crore
0
−20000
0
−5000
−15000
2e+05
−2e+05
1e+05
−1e+05
20
18
16
14
12
10
5.0
4.5
10
8
6
6
5
4
91−day rate
7.0
6.5
Percent
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
7.5
91−day rate (right axis)
22
7.0
20
6.5
18
Percent
6.0
16
5.5
14
5.0
12
4.5
10
7.5
91−day rate (right axis)
20
7.0
6.5
18
Percent
6.0
16
5.5
5.0
14
4.5
12
6
5
4
−1
−2
−3
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 44 / 48
Part V
Summary
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 45 / 48
Key messages
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 46 / 48
Further reading
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 47 / 48
Thank you.
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah () Monetary Policy in India DEA, July 2007 48 / 48