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Introduction
1.1 Sets in Perspective
1.2 Definition
1.3 Sets and Subsets
1.4 The Universal Set and Its Subsets
1.5 Rules Governing Set Operations
1.6 Basic Set Operations
2A.1 The Multiplication Principle
2A.2 Permutation
2A.3 Combination
2A.3.2 Counting Subsets with Repetition or Replacement
2A.5 Questionnaire and Review
Chapter 2B Partition and Occupancy
2B.1 The Distribution of Balls into Cells
2B.2 Ordered Partition
2B.3 Allocation in Practice
2B.4 Partition and Occupancy
3.1 Sets and Switching Circuits Operations
3.2 Logic and Set Operations
3.3 Probability and Set Operations
4.1 An Overview
4.2 A Simple Experiment
4.3 The Sample Space
4.4 The Event: Simple and Compound
4.5 Probability and Randomness
4.6 Classical Probability: Probability of Simple Events
4.7 Probability of Compound Events
4.9 Probability Mode: Simple versus Conditional
4.11 The Multiplication Rule of Probability
4.13. The Odds Alternative to Probability
4.14 The Random Variable
5.1 Conditional Probability
5.2 Graphic Overview
5.3 Illustrative Examples
5.4 Basic Rules of Probability Theory
5.4.1 Summation Rule
5.4.2 Multiplication Rule
5.5 Probability in Words, Symbols, and Venn Diagrams
5.6 Uniform Distribution: The Classical Model
5.6.1 Permutation Approach without Replacement
5.6.2 Permutation Approach with Replacement
5.6.3 Combination Approach
5.6.4 Conditional Probability Approach
5.6.5 Complement Approach
5.6.6 Double Combination Approach
5.6.7 Generalized Double Combination Approach
5.7 The Sample Space Out of the Urn
5.9 The Probability of Being on Time
5.10 The Sample Space Whose Elements are not Equally Likely
5.11 The Double Urn Problem in Jest and Reality
5.12 Lyme Disease: Proved and Unproved
5.13 Prostatic Cancer: Confirmed and Excluded
5.14 Probability in the World of Chance
5.14.1 The New York Lotto
5.14.2 The Poker Game
The New York Times: Opinionator
6.1 Mutually Exclusive Case
6.2 Mutually Nonexclusive Case
Clinical versus Diagnostic Conditional Probability
7.2 Timed Conditional Probability: Risk Assessment
7.3 Prevalence, Incidence, and Risk
8.3 Posttest Diagnostic Procedure
9.1 Bayes’ Theorem: Odds and Likelihood Alternative
10.1 Graphic Overview
10.2 Sensitivity
10.3 Levels of Sensitivity: Diagnostic Implication
10.4 Indication for High-Sensitivity Tests
10.5 The Complement of Sensitivity
10.6 Specificity
10.7 Levels of Specificity: Diagnostic Implication
10.8 Indication for High-Specificity Tests
10.9 The Complement of Specificity
10.10 Sensitivity versus Specificity
16.1 Coronary Artery Disease
16.2 The Ischemic Response: Physiologic Background
17.1 Targeting a Test Order
17.2 Testing for Syphilis and Lyme disease
18A.2 The Transformation of Empirical Frequency Distribution
18A.3 The Concept of Function as an Operation
18A.4 The Random Variable
18B.1 Bernoulli Random Variable
18B.2 The Binomial Random Variable
18B.3 Binomial Probability Distribution: p = q
18B.5 The Expected Value
18B.6 Binomial Probability Distribution: p ≠ q
18B.7 Probability Distribution: b(x;n,p)
18B.8 Finite versus Continuous Probability Distribution
18B.9 The Binomial Probability Distribution
18B.10 Clinical Application of the Binomial Distribution
18B.11 Malignant Viral Infection
18B.12 New Antibiotic
18B.13 Heart Transplant Program
18B.14 Public Health Problem
18B.15 Critical Care Technique
18B.16 Critical Care Procedures Proficiency
18B.17 Monitoring System Failure
18B.18 Frequency of Procedures
18B.19 Question of Life Expectancy
18B.20 The Birthday Problem
18B.21 Terminology in Probability
18B.22 Probability of Error
18C.1 Probability Density Function (PDF)
19A.1 The Normal Distribution
19A.3 The Standard Normal Distribution Curve
20.1 Probability Revisited
20.3 Random Sample: The First Entity
20.4 Population: The Second Entity
20.5 Sampling Distribution: The Third Entity
20.11 Statistical Estimation
21A.1 The Sample-Population Relation
21A.2 Formal Approach to Hypothesis Testing
21A.3 The p Value and the Observed Significance Level
21A.4 Definitions of α
21A.5 The Interrelationship of p and α
21A.6 Difference between p and α
21A.7 Reporting p and/or α
21B.1 Population versus Sampling Distribution
21B.2 Population Mean versus Sample Mean
21B.3 Sample Mean vs. Sampling Distribution of the Mean
21B.4 Statement and Formulation of Two Opposing Hypotheses
21B.6 Prior Specification and Setting of the Significance Level
21B.8 Statistical Decision and Conclusion
21C.1 Two-Tailed Test
21C.4 Control of the Type I Error, α
21C.5 Control of Type II error, β
21C.6 One-Tailed Test
21C.7 Operating-Characteristic Curve versus Power Curve
21C.8 Factors Affecting Type II Error
22.1 Inductive versus Deductive Reasoning
22.4 The Reference Interval: Arbiter of the Test Result
22.5 Statistical versus Bayesian Inference
P. 1
The Diagnostic Process: Graphic Approach to Probability and Inference in Clinical Medicine

# The Diagnostic Process: Graphic Approach to Probability and Inference in Clinical Medicine

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This book addresses the decision making process under uncertainty. The process commonly encountered in all fields of human endeavor is called the diagnostic process in this monograph.
The thrust of this book is to help the struggling student, of all ages, in all fields, to cross the threshold from rote to comprehension, thus bridging an intuitive gap left in many a reader’s mind regarding the significance and clinical implication of the accompanying probability data.
The text is, in essence, a verbal and graphic portrait of the basic ideas and symbolic structure of probability and statistical inference with particular stress on the Bayesian version. It aims to expound in words, simile, and diagrams the inherent connections obtained between a given event and its sample space or between a given random sample and a hypothesized population. In this sense, no formula is left naked to be absorbed on its face value without the support of a graphic cover. The final result is a firm grasp of the simple concepts that make the infrastructure (not the superstructure) of the subject.
Nonetheless, this is not another book on statistics. It certainly is not a textbook geared for the classroom, it contains no problem to solve other than those structured and graphed examples needed to clarify and illustrate the thrust of the point under consideration. The book deals exclusively with the two topics that I tend to believe are the core thesis of statistics, namely, probability and its counterpoint, inference, supported by the necessary exposition of sets. Thus, the book does not include the mandatory and important chapters on analysis of variance, regression, and correlation.
This book addresses the decision making process under uncertainty. The process commonly encountered in all fields of human endeavor is called the diagnostic process in this monograph.
The thrust of this book is to help the struggling student, of all ages, in all fields, to cross the threshold from rote to comprehension, thus bridging an intuitive gap left in many a reader’s mind regarding the significance and clinical implication of the accompanying probability data.
The text is, in essence, a verbal and graphic portrait of the basic ideas and symbolic structure of probability and statistical inference with particular stress on the Bayesian version. It aims to expound in words, simile, and diagrams the inherent connections obtained between a given event and its sample space or between a given random sample and a hypothesized population. In this sense, no formula is left naked to be absorbed on its face value without the support of a graphic cover. The final result is a firm grasp of the simple concepts that make the infrastructure (not the superstructure) of the subject.
Nonetheless, this is not another book on statistics. It certainly is not a textbook geared for the classroom, it contains no problem to solve other than those structured and graphed examples needed to clarify and illustrate the thrust of the point under consideration. The book deals exclusively with the two topics that I tend to believe are the core thesis of statistics, namely, probability and its counterpoint, inference, supported by the necessary exposition of sets. Thus, the book does not include the mandatory and important chapters on analysis of variance, regression, and correlation.

Publish date: Aug 21, 2013
Added to Scribd: Sep 12, 2013

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09/11/2015

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9781483650326

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