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Purple Strategies VA Gov Poll

Purple Strategies VA Gov Poll

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Published by EvanMcSan
September 2013
September 2013

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Published by: EvanMcSan on Sep 12, 2013
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09/14/2013

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Unlike other polls, the PurplePoll ocuses exclusively on the 12 states that aremost likely to determine presidential elections and oer a closer view o whichway the country is leaning. Since 1996, nine o these states swung between theRepublican and Democratic candidates. The voters in these states have held thepresidential election balance or the past dozen years, represent aulcrum o American public opinion, and will continue to do so.The PurplePoll was named one o the most accurate pollsters o 2012 orits national and swing state polls. It has been cited on television, in print, andonline by sources that span the political spectrum, including:
MSNBC, Fox News, ABC News, the Wall Street Journal, Talking Points Memo, Slate, Politico,the National Review 
and over a hundred other sources.For more inormation,contact Doug Usher, Ph.D.
,at 703-548-7877.
Purple is a ully integrated, bipartisan team that excels at merging red andblue perspectives to nd eective strategic solutions. We look to build aconsensus that will support a public aairs initiative, infuence a debate orstimulate change. Our team includes experts in opinion research, strategiccommunications, grassroots, government aairs, digital communicationsand creative.Recognizing the need or a balanced, bipartisan approach to corporatecommunications and issue advocacy, Alex Castellanos and Steve McMahonmerged two well-established Republican and Democratic irms – NationalMedia and Issue & Image – to create Purple Strategies. By joining orces,Purple brings together strategists and communication specialists romacross the political spectrum, including veteran political strategists BruceHaynes, Mark Squier and Jim Jordan.The PurplePoll is ielded and analyzed by Purple Insights, the researchdivision o Purple Strategies, the bipartisan public aairs irm.The PurplePoll is ielded and analyzed by Purple Insights, the researchdivision o Purple Strategies, the bipartisan public aairs irm. Fielded9/6-9/10, interviews were conducted using a mixed methodology o automated telephone interviews using landline phones and onlineinterviews o voters who predominantly or exclusively use cell phones.Sixty-ive percent (65%) o the interviews were conducted via phone,and 35% online with cell phone users. Total weighted N size=800 likelyvoters, margin o error +/-3.5.For more: www.purplestrategies.com
 
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For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D.[doug.usher@purplestrategies.com]at 703-548-7877.
PURPLE
 
ANALYSIS
McAulife leads Cuccinelli by 5,with many voters still up or grabs.
As we enter a key stretch o the Virginia Gubernato-rial race, Democrat Terry McAulie holds a 5-pointlead over Republican Ken Cuccinelli, 43% to 38%.With 19% undecided and nearly two months to go,this race remains volatile.McAulie has nearly consolidated Democrats,leading 84% to 3%. Cuccinelli has room to growamong Republicans (77% to 6%), and leads amongindependent voters (45% to 33%). There is a strongsplit on education lines: McAulie leads by 18among those with a college degree (48% to 30%),and Cuccinelli has a solid 11-point lead amongthose without a college degree (48% to 37%).The gender gap in this election is strong: McAuliehas an 18-point lead and a majority among women(50% to 32%), while Cuccinelli has the advantageamong men (45% to 35%). The race also cleaveson predictable regional divides. McAulie holdsleads in Northern Virginia (53% to 28%), and in theI-64 corridor including Richmond and TidewaterVirginia (52% to 33%). Cuccinelli is ahead in thecentral part o the state (44% to 31%) and has amajority in southwestern Virginia (51% to 34%).
In hypothetical 2016 match-ups in Virginia, HillaryClinton has a 7-point lead over Rand Paul, and aslight 2-point lead over Chris Christie.
Virginia will be a key swing state in the 2016election, as it was in 2012 and 2008. To get anearly look, we tested ormer Senator/Secretaryo State Hillary Clinton against two potentialRepublican nominees, Senator Rand Paul andGovernor Chris Christie.Clinton ares well in a hypothetical match-upagainst Rand Paul, leading 48% to 41%. In thismatch-up, she has almost unanimous supportamong Democrats (93% to 3%), while Paul captures just ¾ o GOP voters (77% to 9%).Against Chris Christie, Clinton leads by just 2points, 42% to 40%. Clinton’s support amongDemocrats is lower against Christie (82% to 9%).Christie also does better among independents –he leads by 13 against Clinton, while Paul leadsClinton by 9.The gender gap is extremely wide in both match-ups. Women preer Clinton to Paul by 18 (55%to 37%), while men avor Paul by 5 (46% to 41%).Clinton leads Christie by 16 among women (50%to 34%), while Christie reverses that advantageamong men, leading by 14 (47% to 33%).
Virginia voters do not like their gubernatorialcandidates.
The Virginia governor’s race pits two o the leastwell-liked candidates that we can recall competingin a single election. Just 24% o Virginians have aavorable impression o Democrat Terry McAulie(39% unavorable). Similarly, 29% have a avorableview o Ken Cuccinelli (49% unavorable). Bothhave comparable net ratings with embattledGovernor Bob McDonnell (31%/44%).Even partisans do not particularly like theircandidates. Just a bare majority o Democratshave a avorable view o McAulie (53%/14%).Cuccinelli has similar challenges among hispartisans (slightly better-liked among his partisans(54%/16%). Importantly, he is no better liked amongRepublicans than current Governor Bob McDonnell(55% avorable, 16% unavorable among Republicans).As Alex Castellanos, ounding partner o PurpleStrategies, commented, “This could be a volatilerace until the last minute. In Virginia, we seem tohave two candidates running against each other,neither o whom can possibly win.”Voters are slightly more likely to believe thatMcAulie “shares their values” (41% to 35%), will“make Virginia a better place (40% to 34%), andwill “improve the economy” (39% to 35%). However,voters are evenly divided on which candidate ismost ethical (36% McAulie, 35% Cuccinelli), with30% unsure.One o these two candidates will win the race. Atthe same time, it also appears that most Virginianswill be unsatisied whomever they choose.
VIRGINIASTATEWIDE
 
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For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D.[doug.usher@purplestrategies.com]at 703-548-7877.
PURPLE
 
QUESTIONNAIRE RESULTS
TotalMaleFemaleDemocratRepublicanIndependentNo CollegeCollege+Northern VACentral/North Central VA64 CorridorSouth/SouthwestFavorable394989730335459384927Unfavorable523958256543831544453Not sure91271115139118720Favorable4661931445436267466138Unfavorable463457547503227483651Not sure8521187676411Favorable3939403143314651334327Unfavorable3222292627262823262931Not sure2939314330422627412842Favorable3723113840332728352629Unfavorable3943672034324853304436Not sure2435224325352519363035Favorable4121105533352724332741Unfavorable3949671643404842425338Not sure2129232923252534252021Favorable212853417173028232519Unfavorable4633146045453531404444Not sure3439333638383541373137Favorable392185433362418343036Unfavorable4454751649415757455637Not sure1725183018231925211426McAuliffe355084633374853315234Cuccinelli453237745483028443351Not sure1919131723152219251515Clinton415593939375759445827Paul463737748523227463363Not sure1394141311111311911Clinton335082828334951314737Christie473497941463627494144Not sure201791331211522201219 44451153407392734304130314425243936294921433819484111424018
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Terry McAulie?Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Barack Obama?Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Hillary Clinton?Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Chris Christie?Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Rand Paul?Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Bob McDonnell?Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Ken Cuccinelli?If the 2013 Virginia gubernatorial election were held today and thecandidates were: Democrat Terry McAulie and Republican KenCuccinelli, for whom would you vote?While it’s a long way o, if the 2016 presidential election were heldtoday and the candidates were Democrat Hillary Clinton andRepublican Rand Paul, for whom would you vote?While it’s a long way o, if the 2016 presidential election were heldtoday and the candidates were Democrat Hillary Clinton andRepublican Chris Christie, for whom would you vote? 
Fielded 9/6-9/10, using automated telephone and online interviews. Total weighted N size=800 likely voters, margin of error +/-3.5.

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