Welcome to Scribd, the world's digital library. Read, publish, and share books and documents. See more
Download
Standard view
Full view
of .
Save to My Library
Look up keyword
Like this
0Activity
0 of .
Results for:
No results containing your search query
P. 1
BondBeat on Triskaidekaphobia

BondBeat on Triskaidekaphobia

Ratings: (0)|Views: 97|Likes:
Published by stevefeiss
the bondbeat on Friday, September 13th, 2013. Very same day Bloomberg's 'global investor poll' out ... "Fed’s Taper Start Seen as Non-Event in Poll of Investors" http://bloom.bg/1d9ErTa
the bondbeat on Friday, September 13th, 2013. Very same day Bloomberg's 'global investor poll' out ... "Fed’s Taper Start Seen as Non-Event in Poll of Investors" http://bloom.bg/1d9ErTa

More info:

Published by: stevefeiss on Sep 13, 2013
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

Availability:

Read on Scribd mobile: iPhone, iPad and Android.
download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
See more
See less

09/13/2013

pdf

text

original

 
The BondBeat 
Friday, September 13, 2013
In The News …
Fed’s Taper Start Seen as Non-Event in Global Poll of Investors: Bloomy 
“There doesn’t seem to be a big hurry or need to raise rates anytime soon,” Steve Feiss, aninterest-rate strategist at broker-dealer Government Perspectives LLC in Marlboro,  New Jersey
 
,said in an e-mail. Inflation is “being very cooperative.” Feiss, who took part in the poll,expects the Fed to begin raising rates in the second half of 2015.
Fed Message Muddled as Misunderstood Taper Meets Slowing Growth: Bloomy
EU Ministers Pledge Backing for Slovenia Quest to Avoid Bailout: Bloomy
Mall Owners Go From First to Last as Spending Slows: Bloomy
Factory Rebirth Fizzles in U.S. as Work Shipped Overseas: Bloomy
Trader Joe’s Will Move Part-Timers to Obama Health Exchanges: Bloomy
Japan to Consider Corporate Tax Cut in Stimulus Package: Bloomy 
What’s On OUR Minds
Everything and nothing! From Syria to Putin and backhere to a less-than stellar economic picture (don’tmake us fire over NGDP visual OR point you to DBslonger term asset return study -- on our streetstuff yesterday and again, today) … All of this withincontext of the Fed’s thinking for next week driving thewater-cooler talk (?) about the ever-popular road toTaperville?With no coupon issuance until 2s/5s/7s starting on the24th of September, the markets can contemplate all of the above and hope for some more Verizon-typetrades to make their collective balance sheet year!Disney announced a $6-8bb buy back yesterday --maybe just what the doctor ordered? Given thesmaller size and the reported large involvement byPIMCO & BlackRock in the VZW deal, we’re guessingthis won’t present much of a speedbump in the market, let alone a morsel of a talking point. Butif you think about it for a moment -- a company NOT wishing to do anything with their balancesheet other than LEVER it to send money back TO shareholders (CapEx? Hiring?) thanks inpart to still relatively LOW term structure of the yield curve, well, whatever. Never mind. We get
 
daily lessons that thinking too much doesn’t really provide that alpha generation you are lookingfor. Only getting VZW allocations does that. So, good luck to you on the DIS deals coming soon,to a theater near us all soon?? Along with the FOMC next week, we have a jam-packed economic calendar as well. The datawill take a backseat to the Fed as we all try and dust off the crystal ball in order to have the rightposition in front of the data and the Fed. Nikkei news reporting overnight that Larry is THE GUYdid impact USTs (lower overnight) and the DXY. Let’s see if there is anything TO this OR if something might have been lost in the translation.Having said SO little and given it’s Friday the 13th -- we’re just gonna quit while we’re behind,hit SEND, and crawl back under our desks in the fetal position … And speaking of positions, wewanted to expand a bit on the top headline story above -- Bloomberg’s global investor poll. Hereis our response TO Rich Miller, when asked about our responses (some of which eventuallymade it INTO the Bloomy story):
(BN) Fed’s Taper Start Seen as Non-Event in Global Poll of Investors
 
Bloomberg terminal link: {NSN MT18MR6K50YC <go>}Web:
“There doesn’t seem to be a big hurry or need to raise rates anytime soon,” Steve Feiss,an interest-rate strategist at broker-dealer Government Perspectives LLC in Marlboro,New Jersey 
 
,said in an e-mail. Inflation is “being very cooperative.” Feiss, who took part in the poll, expects the Fed to begin raising rates in the second half of 2015.
For any/all inquiring minds as to the CONTEXT of the above quote, here’s my response TORich Miller -- and essentially all that got left on the ‘cutting room floor’Personal view that NFP not strong enough to be considered 'substantial improvement'and passing at next week’s FOMC meeting will give them one more NFP beforecommitting to the beginning of the end of accommodation. There have been pockets of improvement, to be sure, but as far as inflation and employment goes, I don't see us asat that inflection point. IF they DO decide to taper this month, though, my view regardingmarket reaction being very small based on 3% 10s and revisiting the local lows on MBSprices SO ... it would seem to ME that the market has sold the rumor already? Broughtforward whatever it thinks the Fed will do. As far as the opinion the Fed beginning toraise rates in H2 2015, it's again my opinion the Fed may reduce accommodationSLOWER than currently being priced which is first step before they will consider raisinginterest rates. They have to stop easing, see what happens, consider reducing balancesheet (selling?) if they are THAT confident, and maybe at THAT point, even start raisingthe cost of money so as to prevent inflation ... Again, based on concept that
inflation
metrics they have trained us all to watch,
being very 'cooperative'
at the moment,
there doesn't seem to be a big hurry or need to raise rates any time soon
.Hopefully that answers questions ... not sure I've backed my opinions up with 'math' or forward curves but you know better than I do, how mkts function, generally speaking.Traders react, then stop and think. Overshoot first, then ask questions ...Have a great start to the end of the week.BestSaul/Steve
 
Items of Interest
 By R. Mark Rogers, Senior U.S. Economist
 
Employment disappoints Fed or not?
 
The employment report for August posted this past Friday and was tepid. The question iswhether the numbers tipped the balance on whether the Fed starts to taper asset purchaseswith the upcoming September 18 FOMC policy decision.
(
 
Bloomy’s Fed-speak Calendar September 10, 2013GPs Key Econ Indicators  August 21, 2013
-
>
Our “Economic Graph Package” is used by some of our clients to include in their monthly or quarterly reports. We havemost of the major economic indicators included to give an accurate snapshot of theeconomy.
GPs 5yr & Under Summary   August 22, 2013
 
- > this is our chart package wecall the “One to Five Year Daily”. It tracks agency bullet spreads to Treasuries, date to date,to compute the real maturity spread levels (in basis points) out to five years. We track

You're Reading a Free Preview

Download
/*********** DO NOT ALTER ANYTHING BELOW THIS LINE ! ************/ var s_code=s.t();if(s_code)document.write(s_code)//-->