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Table Of Contents

3.1 Can free choice be predicted?
3.2 Is the world deterministic?
3.3 Is free will observable?
3.4 The problem of free will
3.5 A rational illusion
3.6 Free will and the decision matrix
4.1 Will a canonical space help?
4.1.1 The canonical state space
4.1.2 Difficulties with a uniform prior on [0,1]
4.1.3 Conclusion
4.2 What’s special about the coin?
4.2.1 Symmetry
4.2.2 Smooth beliefs
5.1 The law of large numbers
5.2 The problem of induction
5.2.1 Hume’s critique
5.2.2 Goodman’s grue-bleen paradox
5.2.3 Kolmogorov complexity and its dependence of language
5.2.4 Grue-bleen again
5.2.5 Evolutionary explanations
5.3 Problems with the frequentist approach
6.2 Pascal’s wager
6.3 Classical vs. Bayesian statistics
6.3.1 Basic definitions
6.3.2 The gambler fallacy
6.3.3 Exchangeability
6.3.4 Confidence is not probability
6.3.5 Classical statistics can be ridiculous
6.3.6 Different methods for different goals
7 A Case Study
7.1 A characterization theorem for maximization of utility
7.2 Proof
7.3 Interpretations
7.3.1 A few definitions
7.3.2 A meta-scientific interpretation
7.3.3 A normative interpretation
7.3.4 A descriptive interpretation
7.4 Limitations
7.4.1 Semi-orders
7.4.2 Other ways to measure utility
8 The Role of Theories
8.1 Theories are always wrong
8.2 Theories and conceptual frameworks
8.3 Logical positivism as a metaphor
9 von Neumann and Morgenstern’s Theorem
9.1 Background
9.2 The theorem
9.3 Proofs
9.3.1 The algebraic approach
9.4 The three interpretations
10 de Finetti’s Theorem
10.1 Motivation
10.2 The theorem
10.3 A proof
10.4 The three interpretations
11 Savage’s Theorem
11.1 Background
11.3.3 Notation
11.3.4 Null events
11.3.5 P3
11.3.6 P4
11.3.7 P5
11.3.8 P6
11.3.9 P7
11.4 The result for a finite outcome set
11.4.1 Finitely additive measures
11.4.2 Non-atomic measures
11.4.3 The Theorem
11.5 The case of a general outcome set
11.6 Interpretations
11.7 The proof and qualitative probabilities
12 The Definition of States
12.1 Causality
12.1.1 Newcomb’s Paradox
12.1.2 States as functions from acts to outcomes
12.1.3 A problem
12.2 Hempel’s paradox of confirmation
12.2.1 Are all ravens black?
12.2.2 A state space formulation
12.2.3 What is a confirmation?
12.2.4 A resolution
12.2.5 Good’s variation
12.2.6 What do we learn from this?
12.3 Monty Hall three-door game
13 A Critique of Savage
13.1 Criticizing critiques
13.1.1 An example
13.1.2 The general lesson
13.2 Critique of P3 and P4
13.2.1 Example
13.2.2 Defense
13.2.3 State dependent utility
13.2.4 The definition of subjective probability
13.2.5 When is state dependence necessary?
13.3 Critique of P1 and P2
13.3.1 The basic problem
13.3.2 Reasoned choice vs. raw preferences
13.3.3 Schmeidler’s critique and Ellsberg’s paradox
13.3.4 Observability of states
13.3.5 Problems of complexity
14 Objectivity and Rationality
14.1 Subjectivity and objectivity
14.2 Objective and subjective rationality
15 Anscombe-Aumann’s Theorem
16 Choquet Expected Utility
16.1 Schmeidler’s intuition
16.2 Choquet Integral
16.3 Comonotonicity
16.4 Axioms and result
17 Prospect Theory
17.1 Background
17.2 Gain-loss asymmetry
17.3 Distortion of probabilities
17.4 Rank-dependent probabilities and Choquet inte- gration
18 Maxmin Expected Utility
18.1 Convex games
18.2 A cognitive interpretation of CEU
18.3 Axioms and result
18.4 Interpretation of MMEU
18.5 Generalizations and variations
18.6 Bewley’s alternative approach
18.7 Combining objective and subjective rationality
18.8 Applications
19 Case-Based Qualitative Beliefs
19.1 Axioms and result
19.2 Four known techniques
19.4 Violations of the Combination axiom
20 Frequentism Revisited
20.1 Similarity-weighted empirical frequencies
20.2 Intuition
20.3 Axiomatization
20.4 Empirical similarity and objective probabilities
21 Future Research
22 References
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Gilboa Theory of Uncertainty

Gilboa Theory of Uncertainty

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Published by Jhon Ortega Garcia

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Published by: Jhon Ortega Garcia on Sep 14, 2013
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