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ISSUE 9
JANUARY 2009
Risingconcerns
How will climatechange affectour health?
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What are the biggest threats to human health?
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Who will suffer as the climate changes?
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What can be done to minimise harm?
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How do we cope with uncertainty?
BRINGING CUTTING-EDGE SCIENCE INTO THE CLASSROOM
 F R E E
 reso u rce  fo r  teac he rs
HEALTH ANDCLIMATE CHANGE
   ©   R  a   fi  q  u  r   R  a   h  m  a  n   /   R  e  u   t  e  r  s   /   C  o  r   b   i  s
 
2
 Big Picture 9:Health and Climate Change
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NEED TO KNOW
 El Niño Southern Oscillation:
Large-scale sea surfaceand atmosphere fluctuations that significantly affectclimate in the Southern Hemisphere. El Niño means ‘thelittle boy’ – its effects are generally seen at Christmastime. A cold phase during each El Niño episode isknown as La Niña (‘the little girl’).
 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC):
 Set up by the United Nations in 1988, the IPCCdevelops a consensus from many hundreds of experts.Its latest major report was published in 2007.
The Earth’s climate is changing. In fact, it has always beenchanging. What is different now is the speed of changeand the main cause of change – human activities.Humans are consuming the Earth’s resources and emittingpollutants on a scale never seen before. While many livingcreatures have felt the impact of these activities, now it ishumans who are beginning to suffer – victims, perhaps, ofpast successes.We have assumed that the Earth’s environment can absorball the waste that human life generates. But human activitieshave begun disturbing systems on a global scale. And thesedisruptions will ultimately have profound consequences forhuman health and welfare.
health and climate change
Big Picture
on
www.wellcome.ac.uk/ bigpicture/climatechange
ON T HE  W E B
HEALTH AND CLIMATE CHANGE
 As other climate change resourcesexist, this issue of 
Big Picture
focuseson health impacts. Its starting-point isthe scientific consensus that climatechange is happening and is drivenprincipally by human activities. Morebackground and a primer on thescience of climate changecan be found atBig Picture Online.
FASTFACT
 The World HealthOrganizationestimates thatclimate changecaused around150 000 deathsper year betweenthe mid-1970sand 2000.
 ViolentweatherHeat-relatedharmInjuryEcosystemchangeHomelessness Altered weatherpatterns
TEMPERATURE
RISE
SocialunrestSocialunrest Aquaculture failureMarineecosystemshiftSea level riseInfectiousdiseasespreadInfectiousdiseasespreadEconomic disruptionOceanacidificationCO
2
MalnutritionMass migrationCrop failureHighertemperatures
Rising greenhouse gas levels are triggering climate andenvironmental changes that will affect human health in many ways.
Risinggreenhousegaslevels
Displacement
 
JANUARY 2009
3
Concerned about rising carbondioxide levels, in 1958 US scientistCharles Keeling began recordingatmospheric carbon dioxide levelson the Mauna Loa volcano inHawaii. Despite many challenges,Keeling gathered a remarkable setof data recording a steady rise incarbon dioxide levels – from 316parts per million (ppm) in 1957to 384 ppm 50 years later (above). The records even show annualcycles linked to seasonal plantgrowth in the northern hemisphere,as well as the impact of volcaniceruptions and weather patternssuch as El Niño (see page 2).
Going up…
●
Sea levels are rising byabout 3 mm every year.
Go for Gaia
In the 1970s, James Lovelockdeveloped the idea that Earth canbe seen as a giant self-regulatingorganism – the Gaia hypothesis.Earth was optimised to maintainlife. Although widely dismissed bymainstream science at the time,the hypothesis has emerged as aninfluential factor in climate debates,in a somewhat modified form. Theidea that biological, geologicaland atmospheric systems interactat a global level, in ways thatsustain life on Earth, is now widelyappreciated. Now, human activitiesare in danger of altering thesesystems so profoundly that theymay struggle to support humanlife in the future.
In humans, internal body temperature is maintained ata remarkably constant 36–37°C, thanks to a variety of homeostatic mechanisms, coordinated by a thermostatin the hypothalamus region of the brain.When body temperatures rise,
negative feedback
 systems kick in – sweating, blood vessel dilation near theskin, behavioural responses (seeking shade, eating icecream) and so on.Ongoing exposure to elevated temperatures is highlydangerous, leading to
heatstroke
. Symptoms includeheadache, nausea and confusion, cardiovascular andheart malfunction, and eventually coma and death. The mechanisms of heatstroke are not wellunderstood. Water loss by sweating leads to loss of blood pressure and reduced blood flow to the brain,followed by organ failure and brain damage. Little isknown about the molecules mediating these responses;a better understanding could suggest new ways to treatheatstroke. Thermoregulation is important because the speed of biochemical reactions –
chemical kinetics
– varies withtemperature. In addition, biological molecules such asproteins lose their shape (denature) and are inactivated if temperatures rise.
Balancing act
Greenhouse gases are not the only things affecting theclimate, but in recent times they have had – and willcontinue to have – a profound effect on the Earth.Oddly, though, in some senses the numbers seem small.Net release of carbon dioxide is only slightly out of balance;temperatures have only risen a degree or two; ocean pHhas dropped by a fraction. Is that so serious?Unfortunately, these minor differences are highlysignificant, driving major changes to the Earth’s environment– and seriously affecting humanity. And they are onlythe beginning…
Climate is changing; withgreenhouse gas emissions stillrising, the planet is poised toundergo a profound change.
 THEHEAT IS ON
...and warmer still
More alarming still are the projections into the futuresimulated by models of the Earth’s climate.
Too hot for comfort
Getting warmer…
 The ‘hockey stick’ graph shows average temperaturesover the past 1000 years, clearly showing recentsudden rises.
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The top ten warmest years on record have all beenfrom 1995 onwards.
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Every year since 2001 has made the top ten. The hockey stick has proved controversial, with somecommentators questioning the accuracy of data obtainedfrom tree ring analysis. A 2008 version, with much extradata, confirmed the pattern seen in the original analysis.
Organisms – including humans – are adaptedto a narrow range of temperatures.
Working outside in hot weathercan be very dangerous. Vanishing point: The North Pole in 1979...Projected increases in temperature by 2100. Simulationssuggest increases of between about 1.5°C and 5°C, dependingon stabilised CO
2
levels. Simulations tend to cluster around2–2.5°C....and in 2008.
6.05.55.04.54.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.0-0.5-1.0
1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
   T  e  m  p  e  r  a   t  u  r  e  c   h  a  n  g  e   (
  o
   C   )
   C  a   l  c  u   l  a   t  e   d   M  e  a  s  u  r  e   d   P  r  o   j  e  c   t  e   d
   T  e  m  p  e  r  a   t  u  r  e  c   h  a  n  g  e   (
  o
   C   )
800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 200010-1-2
 
1998 calculations2008 calculationsDirectly recorded
Going down…
●
Ocean pH is falling due to dissolved CO
2
(acidification);average pH has dropped by about 0.1 units sincepre-industrial times.
   B  e  n   W  e   l  s   h   /   A  g  e   f  o   t  o  s   t  o  c   k   N   A   S   A   /   S   P   L   N   A   S   A   /   S   P   L   /   G   S   F   C   S  c   i  e  n   t   i   fi  c   V   i  s  u  a   l   i  s  a   t   i  o  n   S   t  u   d   i  o
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010390380370360350340330320310
   C  a  r   b  o  n   d   i  o  x   i   d  e  c  o  n  c  e  n   t  r  a   t   i  o  n   (  p  p  m   )
 Annual cycle
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan
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