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Technical & Derivative Analysis Weekly-14092013

Technical & Derivative Analysis Weekly-14092013

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Published by Angel Broking
16th September 2013
16th September 2013

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Categories:Types, Business/Law
Published by: Angel Broking on Sep 16, 2013
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Sepember 14, 2013
For Private Circulation Only |
 Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946
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TTTTTechnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |
 After an extended week, the opening session of the week startedoff on a cheerful note on the back of strong global cues. Theoptimistic opening was fueled by substantial appreciation inIndian Rupee (INR), which resulted in mammoth single day gainof nearly four percent. As stated in previous report, the movebeyond57505750575057505750 attracted strong buying interest among marketparticipants. In the process, the index went on to test ourmentioned level of58905890589058905890 and extended further towards59255925592559255925.The bulls then seemed quite exhausted and hence, the choppy movement was seen during the rest of the week. This week therally was dominated by the Capital Goods, Realty, Auto andFMCG counters; whereas for the second consecutive week, theIT sector remained under pressure. The Sensex and the Nifty advanced with sizable gain of 2.40% and 3.00%, respectively,over the previous week's closing.
Pattern formation:
The '89-day EMA' and the '89-week EMA' are placed at19189 / 572919189 / 572919189 / 572919189 / 572919189 / 5729 and18648/ 562018648/ 562018648/ 562018648/ 562018648/ 5620 levels, respectively.
The '20-day EMA' and the '20-week EMA' are placed at19094 / 563819094 / 563819094 / 563819094 / 563819094 / 5638 and19243 / 574819243 / 574819243 / 574819243 / 574819243 / 5748 levels, respectively.
The negative crossover in monthly 'RSI-Smoothened'oscillator is still intact; whereas the weekly momentumoscillators are contradictory and poised positively. The'Stochastic' momentum oscillator on the weekly chart is nowextremely oversold.
The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the fall from60946094609460946094(high on July 23, 2013) to51185118511851185118 (low on August 28, 2013)is placed at58905890589058905890.
The 'Lower Top - Lower Bottom' formation in weekly chart isstill intact.
Future outlook 
The bulls made a grand come back last week and continuedtheir stand during this week also. As expected, the up move inNifty got extended towards the 78.6%(5890)(5890)(5890)(5890)(5890) Fibonacciretracement level of the fall from60946094609460946094 (high on July 23, 2013)to51185118511851185118 (low on August 28, 2013). The current pricedevelopment and market sentiments precisely replicate thescenario in April 2011. Hence, relating to the historical evidence,we would like to give more weightage to the weekly 'Lower TopLower Bottom' formation. However, considering the strongmomentum, we would not rule out the possibility of an extendedrally (if any) towards5970 - 60005970 - 60005970 - 60005970 - 60005970 - 6000, if the Nifty sustains above59325932593259325932. We reiterate that traders should start booking profits asthe market move higher and remain light on positions. On thedownside, if the Nifty sustains below58325832583258325832 (low of the HangingMan pattern formed on September 11, 2013), then we arelikely to witness some consolidation or correction towards theimmediate support levels of5750 - 57305750 - 57305750 - 57305750 - 57305750 - 5730. The bulls are likely to lose control once the Nifty slips below this week's low of57385738573857385738. In this scenario, the negative direction may get resumedand then we may expect lower levels of5650 - 56005650 - 56005650 - 56005650 - 56005650 - 5600.In the coming week, the volatility is likely to increase on accountof two key events in the market. The US Fed will declare itsstance with regards to the bond buying program and theRBI will declare its monetary policy. Hence, traders are advisedto remain cautious and avoid taking undue risks.
 Source: Falcon
Exhibit 1: Nifty weekly chart
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 Source: Falcon
Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart
The ambiguity begins…
Sensex (19733) / Nifty (5851)
 
Sepember 14, 2013
For Private Circulation Only |
 Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP00000154 6 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946
2
TTTTTechnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |
Technical Research Team
Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty 50 Stocks
SCRIPS
20,37220,07719,76119,46619,1506,0345,9425,8405,7495,64710,61110,38510,1839,9569,7541,1211,0741,0229759231971891801721644634514394274161,0841,0521,0119799382,0622,0201,9691,9271,8765665435084854493643463343163041511431391301263273163052932833433313243123054564474384294203072962882772691651571491411322,3512,2992,2552,2022,1583223163073002922,6822,5942,4882,3992,2931,1261,1001,0561,0309858548348057857566666506346186032,2202,1152,0251,9201,8301191151111071036736496366136001,0009759589349161061019489824524254083803643,2513,1593,0953,0032,93935134433132431225424623923122447434036347387197026836668688418067797449058868568368078748448057747361,4251,3731,3371,2841,24813212812311911414414213813613330729328527126454451948546042710610210097954864714574424279168968818618463963853763643551,7621,7101,6561,6051,55120119218317416559557655253350936935133631830284807672683303173052912802,0492,0091,9771,9361,9051,9541,8571,7301,6321,506R2R2R2R2R2R1R1R1R1R1PIV PIV PIV PIV PIV OOOOOTTTTTS1S1S1S1S1S2S2S2S2S2SENSEX NIFTYBANKNIFTY ACC AMBUJACEM ASIANPAINT AXISBANK BAJAJ-AUTOBANKBARODA BHARTIARTLBHELBPCLCAIRNCIPLA COALINDIA DLFDRREDDYGAILGRASIMHCLTECHHDFCHDFCBANK HEROMOTOCOHINDALCOHINDUNILVR ICICIBANK IDFCINDUSINDBK INFYITCJINDALSTELJPASSOCIATKOTAKBANK LTLUPINM&MMARUTINMDCNTPCONGCPNBPOWERGRIDRANBAXYRELIANCERELINFRA SBINSESAGOA SUNPHARMA TATAMOTORSTATAPOWER TATASTEELTCSULTRACEMCO

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