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McGinty Poll Memo

McGinty Poll Memo

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Published by tmcnulty8452
Poll memo from campaign of Pennsylvania Democrat Katie McGinty
Poll memo from campaign of Pennsylvania Democrat Katie McGinty

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Published by: tmcnulty8452 on Sep 16, 2013
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09/17/2013

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G
ARIN
H
ART
Y
ANG
 
RESEARCH GROUP 
 
Page 1
1724 Connecticut Avenue, N.W.Washington, DC 20009Tel: (202) 234-5570Fax: (202) 232-8134www.hartresearch.com
 
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TO: Interested PartiesFROM: Frederick YangDATE: September 12, 2013RE: Results Of Late-August Survey AmongPennsylvania Democratic Primary Voters
From August 27 to 29, 2013, Garin-Hart-Yang conducted a survey among arepresentative statewide sample of 506 likely Democratic primary voters(margin of error ±4.4 percentage points).
The Democratic primary for governor is still very much up for grabs, as other  public and private polls show, with a large proportion of undecided voters.While Allyson Schwartz leads in the trial heat because of name recognition,our polling makes clear that, with the dominant issue among primary voters
being the poor state of Pennsylvania’s economy, a candidate with KatieMcGinty’s unique background of being a job creator AND an environmental 
leader will have strong appeal. And in fact, looking to the campaign ahead,our polling is VERY encouraging about Katie McGinty being the exact right fit for Democratic primary voters once she becomes better known. Her profilescores HIGHEST among all candidates, and 
 
she demonstrates the ability toappeal to a wide swath of the Democratic primary electorate. If the McGinty 
campaign has the financial resources and support to present their candidate’s
exceptional background and record, our polling shows that she has the very real potential to mount a competitive campaign and to emerge victorious.
Moving behind the trial heat numbers, which largely
measure the candidates’ 
current name recognition (the one variable that definitely will change overthe course of the campaign), our polling yields four very important findingsfor the McGinty campaign:(A)
 
Despite never having run for office
before, Katie McGinty’s working
-classbackground, her record as a job-creating environmentalist, and herfocus on improving the lives of middle-class families makes her anextremely viable candidate to win the Democratic primary.(B)
 
Eighty-seven percent (87%) of Democratic primary voters find
McGinty’s
unique background (environmentalist AND job creator) to be extremelyappealing. By comparison, only 46% find appeal in the profile of Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz (who has more than 20 years inelected office, including the past decade in Congress).
 
G
ARIN
H
ART
Y
ANG
 
RESEARCH GROUP 
 
Page 2
(C)
 
The Democratic primary becomes a two-person race between McGintyand Schwartz after voters are read POSITIVE descriptions of all thecandidates. What is particularly surprising is how much better McGintydoes compared with State Treasurer Rob McCord and former StateRevenue Secretary Tom Wolf.(D)
 
The race is a dead heat outside the Philadelphia media market, withMcGinty demonstrating across-the-board appeal, including with keyprimary constituencies such as seniors and non-college-educated, blue-collar voters.The following presents the key data from our survey.A solid majority of voters are still undecided. Our poll shows that Schwartzhas 51% name recognition, followed by McCord (32%), Wolf (27%), andMcGinty (20%), which mirrors that of other surveys. With her current nameID advantage, it is no surprise that Schwartz has the early advantage in thetrial heat:
Quinnipiac(June 2013)%Benenson Poll(July 2013)%GHY Poll(August 2013)%
 
Schwartz 18 34 25McGinty 5 15 6McCord 4 10 6Wolf 2 11 6Undecided 63 30 57But here are several important dynamics:First, a significant proportion of primary voters is still up for grabs, with theQuinnipiac University poll and our survey showing that the MAJORITY of theelectorate are undecided.Second,
while Congresswoman Schwartz’s initial advantage is buoyed by he
rname recognition in the Philadelphia media market, the race outside thePhilly market is a near dead-heat among the four candidates, with fully 69%undecided.
 
And, as the informed ballot test will show later in this memo,Katie McGinty makes the most movement of any of the candidates to lead inthe region outside the Philadelphia market.Third, our poll shows that while Schwartz has the initial advantage becauseof her name recognition, she has not yet locked down that advantage; forexample, among respondents who RECOGNIZE her name, she garners only43% support, with 42% who are undecided.
 
G
ARIN
H
ART
Y
ANG
 
RESEARCH GROUP 
 
Page 3
 “Creating jobs” is the most important priority to Pennsylvania’s Democraticprimary voters, and we find that Katie McGinty’s background—
which isunique among ANY of the possible candidates for governor
is extremelyappealing to them.We asked voters their reaction to the following
 “candidate types”:
 
22%40%57%
NeutralVery favorableSomewhat favorable
Experience creating jobs while protecting environmentHigh-level experience both in government/businessMore than 20
years’
experience in elected office/including Congress30%33%24%11%23%33%
 It is notable that the McGinty-
type candidate (“creating jobs while protecting
the
environment”)
gets nearly double the positive reaction of the Schwartz-type candidate; and in fact, it scores extremely well among importantsubgroups. For example, the McGinty-type candidate scores 70% VERYfavorable among Schwartz voters (compared with 30% VERY favorabletoward the Schwartz-type candidate), and also receives strong ratings fromPhiladelphia media market voters (66% very favorable), college-educatedwomen (59% very favorable), and liberals (59% very favorable).
Perhaps the best indication of Katie McGinty’s
potential strength occurs afterwe present voters with positive background information about the
candidates, in which McGinty’s profile scores the HIGHE
ST and she makesthe most movement of any candidate in the informed trial heat. Thefollowing presents a summary of the profiles we read:
KATIE MCGINTY grew up the ninth of 10 children to a police officer and arestaurant hostess. She
… served in the White House with President Clinton
and Vice President Gore, where she led on environmental issues. She wasthe first woman to head the Pennsylvania Department of EnvironmentalProtection, where she attracted clean energy companies and a billion dollarsin new investment, and helped create 3,000 jobs. As an executive, McGintyhelped businesses invest and build clean energy and clean water projects
 ALLYSON SCHWARTZ
… is the daughter of a Holocaust survivor who knows
the importance of public servants doing what's right for people. Her careerbegan as an advocate for women's health care, and then she held electedoffice representing Montgomery County, where she voted for tax breaks,

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