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TO: Interested PartiesFROM: Frederick YangDATE: September 12, 2013RE: Results Of Late-August Survey AmongPennsylvania Democratic Primary Voters
From August 27 to 29, 2013, Garin-Hart-Yang conducted a survey among arepresentative statewide sample of 506 likely Democratic primary voters(margin of error ±4.4 percentage points).
The Democratic primary for governor is still very much up for grabs, as other public and private polls show, with a large proportion of undecided voters.While Allyson Schwartz leads in the trial heat because of name recognition,our polling makes clear that, with the dominant issue among primary voters
being the poor state of Pennsylvania’s economy, a candidate with KatieMcGinty’s unique background of being a job creator AND an environmental
leader will have strong appeal. And in fact, looking to the campaign ahead,our polling is VERY encouraging about Katie McGinty being the exact right fit for Democratic primary voters once she becomes better known. Her profilescores HIGHEST among all candidates, and
she demonstrates the ability toappeal to a wide swath of the Democratic primary electorate. If the McGinty
campaign has the financial resources and support to present their candidate’s
exceptional background and record, our polling shows that she has the very real potential to mount a competitive campaign and to emerge victorious.
Moving behind the trial heat numbers, which largely
measure the candidates’
current name recognition (the one variable that definitely will change overthe course of the campaign), our polling yields four very important findingsfor the McGinty campaign:(A)
Despite never having run for office
before, Katie McGinty’s working
-classbackground, her record as a job-creating environmentalist, and herfocus on improving the lives of middle-class families makes her anextremely viable candidate to win the Democratic primary.(B)
Eighty-seven percent (87%) of Democratic primary voters find
unique background (environmentalist AND job creator) to be extremelyappealing. By comparison, only 46% find appeal in the profile of Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz (who has more than 20 years inelected office, including the past decade in Congress).