UFPPC (www.ufppc.org) — Digging Deeper LXXXV: June 29, 2009, 7:00 p.m.

Lester R. Brown,

Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization

(New York andLondon: W.W. Norton, January 2008.) Available free of charge on theEarth Policy Institute website.

Plan B 4.0

is slated for October 2009. Theoriginal

Plan B

was published in September 2003.Preface.

Growing urgency since

Plan B2.0

(xi-xii). We must “build a neweconomy” (xii). Four goals in

Plan B 3.0:

“stabilizing climate, stabilizingpopulation, eradicating poverty, andrestoring the earth’s ecosystems” (xii-xiii). Means exist; the problem is “tobuild the political will” (xiii). Ted Turnergave 3,600 copies of

Plan B 2.0

“to headsof state, cabinet ministers, Fortune 500CEOs, the U.S. Congress, and the world’s672 billionaires” (xiv).

Ch. 1: Entering a New World.

Polarice and glaciers are melting faster thanexpected (3-5). Tipping points areapproaching, unresolved problems aremounting, states are failing—“an earlysign of a failing civilization” (5-6). Theglobal crisis is a “massive marketfailure”: prices do not reflect true costs(externalities) (6-8). Civilizations can fail(9-10). Ecosystem limits are beingreached (11-13). China’s growth willbreak the current economic model (13-14). According to the Fund for Peace andthe Carnegie Endowment forInternational Peace, about 20 states arefailing (Sudan, Iraq, Somalia, Zimbabwe,Chad, Ivory Coast, Democratic Republicof the Congo, Afghanistan, Guinea,Central African Republic, Haiti, Pakistan,North Korea, Burma, Uganda,Bangladesh, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Burundi, Timor-Leste) (14-18). Like ecosystems,societies and civilizations face tippingpoints after which collapse is inevitable(18-20). “Plan B” is hopeful; it embodies“what is needed to save civilization,” notwhat is considered politically feasible(20-23).

I. CIVILIZATION IN A BUBBLECh. 2: Deteriorating Oil and FoodSecurity.

Peak oil is near, perhaps herenow (27-34). Our food system is heavilydependent on oil (34-36). Grain harvestincreases, which have tripled since 1950,are slowing (36-37). “[T]he soybean nowoccupies a dominant position in worldagriculture” (37). Grain production is notkeeping up with demand; stocks areshrinking (37-38). The crop-basedethanol program is aggravating thesituation (38-42). Peak oil will disruptmodern cities, especially suburbs,through its impact on transportationcosts (42-45). Hunger is on the rise; atpresent “18,000 children are now dyingeach day [=6.6m/yr.] from hunger andrelated causes,” according to JamesMorris of the U.N. World Food Program(45-47).

Ch. 3: Rising Temperatures andRising Seas.

Climate change is here(48-49). Temperatures are rising and theCO

level has increased from 277 ppm atthe beginning of the Industrial Revolutionto 387 ppm in 2007, diminishing cropyields, melting ice, causing more storms,drought, wildfires and ecosystemdisruption (49-51). Disruption of plantcycles affects crop growth (51-53).Melting snow and ice will affect watersupplies (53-56) and sea levels (56-61).Storms will be more destructive (61-64).“[W]e propose an all-out effort to cut netcarbon dioxide emissions 80 percent by2020” with a goal of preventing CO

concentrations from exceeding 400 ppm(67).

Ch. 4: Emerging Water Shortages.

Climate change is affecting watersupplies (68-69). “Fossil aquifers” thatcannot be replenished are being

depleted, particularly in China and India(69-75). Rivers are running dry (75-76).Lakes are disappearing (77-78). Citiesare competing with farmers for water(78-80). The sharpest competition forwater is in global grain markets (81-82).Water scarcity causes political stress andconflict (82-84).

Ch. 5: Natural Systems under Stress.

Human civilization depends on soil-basedecosystems (85-86). Forests areshrinking (86-90). Soil erosion exceedssoil formation (90-93). Deserts areadvancing on grasslands (93-97).Fisheries are collapsing (97-101). “Weare now in the early stage of the sixthgreat extinction” (101-05).

Ch. 6: Early Signs of Decline.

In somecountries life expectancy is declining(106-07). The gap between rich and pooris widening in a way that has noprecedent (107-10). Illness is taking anincreasing toll, with new challenges fromHIV/AIDS and pollution-related diseases(110-14). Garbage crises are more andmore common (115-17). Struggles forland sow the seeds of conflict, especiallyin Africa (117-21). Millions areenvironmental refugees (121-23). Thereare two dozen failing states (123-27).

II. THE RESPONSE—PLAN BCh. 7: Eradicating Poverty,Stabilizing Population.

Poverty hasdeclined in China and India but isincreasing in Africa; countries“everywhere” must strive to limit familysize to two children per couple (131-33).Universal basic education is needed; girlsbenefit especially (133-36). Programscan help lower birth rates (136-39).Infectious disease is the greatest healthproblem in poor countries; anti-tobaccocampaigns are reducing smoking (140-44). Education is the key to controllingHIV/AIDS (144-46). Reform of agriculturalsubsidies to farmers in rich countries(which hobble poor farmers bysuppressing prices) and debt forgivenessare more important than foreign aidprograms (146-49). Demographicchallenges sometimes overwhelmgovernments, but the path to eradicatingpoverty and shifting to smaller families isknown (149-51).

Ch. 8: Restoring the Earth.

Aninternational effort “far larger and moredemanding than . . . the Marshall Plan” isneeded (152-53). Forests must beprotected and restored; South Koreaoffers a reforestation model (153-58).Soil conservation requires a variety of measures, including minimum- or no-tillage cultivation (158-62). Creation of marine reserves is an approach topreserving fisheries that is gainingmomentum (162-64). To mitigatespecies extinction, the human populationshould stabilize at 8 billion in 2040 (164-65). Ending net deforestation should bethe goal, since forests sequester CO

(165-69). Plan B’s annual budget forrestoring the earth: $113bn (169-74).

Ch. 9: Feeding Eight Billion Well.

China achieved self-sufficiency in food in2004, but hunger has been advancing inAfrica and India (175-76). New ways toraise productivity are needed, likeincreased multicropping (176-79). Watermust be used more productively (179-82). New protein production models areneeded (183-88). Humanity should“move down the food chain” and eat lessmeat (188-89). Questions of energy arethe key to addressing food securityissues (189-91).

Ch. 10: Designing Cities for People.

A new urbanism is turning away from theautomobile (192-94). The ecology of cities will be challenged by peak oil andclimate change in ways that demandthey be redesigned (194-96). Masstransit systems can be financed by newtaxes; bicycles are promising (196-202).Water must be used more efficiently(202-05). Urban gardening offers

multiple advantages (205-08). Squattersettlements should be upgraded, notdestroyed (208-09). Cars and cities areinherently in conflict (209-12).

Ch. 11: Raising Energy Efficiency.

Plan B opposes both new coal-fired andnew nuclear power plants (213-15).Incandescent light bulbs can be bannedand replaced with compact fluorescents(CFLs) to save 75% energy for lighting(215-18). More efficient appliances areavailable (218-21). Buildings can beretrofitted for energy efficiency (221-25). Transport systems must be redesignedwith a diminished role for cars (225-28).Industrial redesign can be rethought toreduce materials use à la

Cradle toCradle

(228-35). The potential for energysavings is huge (235-36).

Ch. 12: Turning to RenewableEnergy.

Renewable energy will mark the21

century (237-38). Wind energy is thecenterpiece of the Plan B energy plan,with 1.5 million 2-megawatt windturbines to be installed by 2020 (239-43).Plug-in hybrid cars plus thousands of wind farms “will rejuvenate farm andranch communities and dramaticallyshrink the U.S. balance-of-trade deficit”(243-46). Solar cells and collectors canprovide 200,000 megawatts by 2020(246-52). Geothermal sources should beable to achieve a like output (252-54).Plant waste can contribute 200 gigawattsby 2020 (255-57). Hydroelectric canexpand to 1,350 gigawatts by 2020 (258-59). This energy plan is feasible, but canwe realize it “before climate changespins out of control”? (259-61).

III. AN EXCITING NEW OPTIONCh. 13: The Great Mobilization.

Weneed to act now, on a global scale (265-67). Taxes and subsidies must be shiftedso true costs are revealed, economistsagree (267-73). Summary of the plan(273-76). Failing states are the principal“threat to security” and at some point“will translate into a failing civilization”(276). Endorses “a new cabinet-levelagency—a Department of Global Security—that would fashion a coherent policytoward each weak and failing state . . .[i]n effect, the DGS budget would be thenew defense budget” (this is a proposalof the Center for Global Development)(277-78). Plan B is compared to WWIImobilization (279-80). It calls for annualexpenditures of “190 billion, roughly onethird of the current U.S. military budgetor one sixth of the global militarybudget” (280-83). An appeal foractivism: “It is decision time” (283-85).Citizens are urged to mobilize, especiallyin support of tax restructuring (285-87).

Notes.

83 pages.

Index.

20 pp.

Acknowledgments.

Research team;EPI staff; publishers translating the bookinto other languages (Arabic, Bulgarian,Catalan, Chinese, Czech, Danish, Farsi,French, Indonesian, Italian, Japanese,Korean, Marathi, Polish, Portuguese,Romanian, Russian, Spanish, Swedish, Thai, Turkish, and Ukranian—as well asGerman, forgotten in the list on p. 396but mentioned two pages later); donors;publisher.

About the Author.

Lester R. Brown

ispresident of the Earth Policy Institute,which he founded in 2001. He pioneeredthe concept of sustainability in the1970s. He founded and headed up theWorldwatch Institute. He has authored orcoauthored “over 50 books,” which haveappeared in more than 40 languages. Heis a [1986] MacArthur Fellow and hasgarnered many international awards; helives in Washington, D.C.[

Additional information. Lester R.Brown

was born on March 28, 1934, inNew Jersey. He started a successfultomato-farming business as a teenager.He graduated from Rutgers in 1955