UFPPC (www.ufppc.org) — Digging Deeper LXXXV: June 29, 2009, 7:00 p.m.
Lester R. Brown,
Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization
(New York andLondon: W.W. Norton, January 2008.) Available free of charge on theEarth Policy Institute website.
Plan B 4.0
is slated for October 2009. Theoriginal
Plan B
was published in September 2003.Preface.
Growing urgency since
Plan B2.0
(xi-xii). We must “build a neweconomy” (xii). Four goals in
Plan B 3.0:
“stabilizing climate, stabilizingpopulation, eradicating poverty, andrestoring the earth’s ecosystems” (xii-xiii). Means exist; the problem is “tobuild the political will” (xiii). Ted Turnergave 3,600 copies of
Plan B 2.0
“to headsof state, cabinet ministers, Fortune 500CEOs, the U.S. Congress, and the world’s672 billionaires” (xiv).
Ch. 1: Entering a New World.
Polarice and glaciers are melting faster thanexpected (3-5). Tipping points areapproaching, unresolved problems aremounting, states are failing—“an earlysign of a failing civilization” (5-6). Theglobal crisis is a “massive marketfailure”: prices do not reflect true costs(externalities) (6-8). Civilizations can fail(9-10). Ecosystem limits are beingreached (11-13). China’s growth willbreak the current economic model (13-14). According to the Fund for Peace andthe Carnegie Endowment forInternational Peace, about 20 states arefailing (Sudan, Iraq, Somalia, Zimbabwe,Chad, Ivory Coast, Democratic Republicof the Congo, Afghanistan, Guinea,Central African Republic, Haiti, Pakistan,North Korea, Burma, Uganda,Bangladesh, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Burundi, Timor-Leste) (14-18). Like ecosystems,societies and civilizations face tippingpoints after which collapse is inevitable(18-20). “Plan B” is hopeful; it embodies“what is needed to save civilization,” notwhat is considered politically feasible(20-23).
I. CIVILIZATION IN A BUBBLECh. 2: Deteriorating Oil and FoodSecurity.
Peak oil is near, perhaps herenow (27-34). Our food system is heavilydependent on oil (34-36). Grain harvestincreases, which have tripled since 1950,are slowing (36-37). “[T]he soybean nowoccupies a dominant position in worldagriculture” (37). Grain production is notkeeping up with demand; stocks areshrinking (37-38). The crop-basedethanol program is aggravating thesituation (38-42). Peak oil will disruptmodern cities, especially suburbs,through its impact on transportationcosts (42-45). Hunger is on the rise; atpresent “18,000 children are now dyingeach day [=6.6m/yr.] from hunger andrelated causes,” according to JamesMorris of the U.N. World Food Program(45-47).
Ch. 3: Rising Temperatures andRising Seas.
Climate change is here(48-49). Temperatures are rising and theCO
2
level has increased from 277 ppm atthe beginning of the Industrial Revolutionto 387 ppm in 2007, diminishing cropyields, melting ice, causing more storms,drought, wildfires and ecosystemdisruption (49-51). Disruption of plantcycles affects crop growth (51-53).Melting snow and ice will affect watersupplies (53-56) and sea levels (56-61).Storms will be more destructive (61-64).“[W]e propose an all-out effort to cut netcarbon dioxide emissions 80 percent by2020” with a goal of preventing CO
2
concentrations from exceeding 400 ppm(67).
Ch. 4: Emerging Water Shortages.
Climate change is affecting watersupplies (68-69). “Fossil aquifers” thatcannot be replenished are being
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