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New report: High risk of genocide in Burma

New report: High risk of genocide in Burma

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Published by rohingyablogger
New report: High risk of genocide in Burma
New report: High risk of genocide in Burma

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Published by: rohingyablogger on Sep 18, 2013
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06/12/2014

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Burma Risk Assessment
September 2013
 
 
ii
THE SENTINEL PROJECT FOR GENOCIDE PREVENTION IS A NON-PROFIT ORGANIZATION DEVOTED TOEFFECTIVEEARLY WARNING OF GENOCIDEAND THEIMPLEMENTATION OF PREVENTIVE MEASURES BEFORELIVES ARE LOST.WE WILL ACHIEVE THIS THROUGH THE CREATIVEUSEOF TECHNOLOGYANDCOOPERATION WITHTHREATENED GROUPS.
 
 
1
TABLE OF CONTENTS
 
1.0 -
 
Executive Summary .................................................................................................... 3
 
2.0 -
 
Introduction ............................................................................................................... 5
 
3.0 -
 
Background Information ............................................................................................. 6
 
3.1 -
 
Historical 
............................................................................................................................6
 
3.2 -
 
Geography 
..........................................................................................................................8
 
4.0 -
 
Key Actors .................................................................................................................. 9
 
4.1 -
 
Individuals
..........................................................................................................................9
 
4.2 -
 
Organizations
................................................................................................................... 13
 
5.0 -
 
Risk Factors .............................................................................................................. 17
 
5.1 -
 
Sociocultural 
..................................................................................................................... 17
 
5.1.1
 
Existence of Distinctive Groups Separated by Social Divisions
............................................... 17
 
5.1.2
 
Ethnic Nationalism
.................................................................................................................. 18
 
5.1.3
 
Legacy of Inter-Group Hatred or Grievance
............................................................................ 19
 
5.1.4
 
Prior Persecution of the Outgroup
.......................................................................................... 19
 
5.1.5
 
Cultural Devaluation of Outgroup
.......................................................................................... 20
 
5.1.6
 
Outgroup Viewed as an Obstacle to Economic Progress
........................................................ 20
 
5.1.7 
 
Population Growth and Youth Bulge
...................................................................................... 21
 
5.2 -
 
Economic 
.......................................................................................................................... 22
 
5.2.1
 
Long-Term Difficult Life Conditions
......................................................................................... 22
 
5.2.2
 
Socioeconomic Deprivation Combined with Group-Based Inequality 
..................................... 23
 
5.2.3
 
Sudden and Severe Economic Hardship
.................................................................................. 24
 
5.2.4
 
Economic Status of the Regime
.............................................................................................. 25
 
5.3 -
 
Political 
– 
Institutional 
....................................................................................................... 25
 
5.3.1
 
Low Degree of Democracy 
...................................................................................................... 26
 
5.3.2
 
Frequent Changes in Political Leadership
............................................................................... 27
 
5.3.3
 
State Security Agencies Operate With Few Constraints
......................................................... 27
 
5.3.4
 
High Level of Military Expenditure
.......................................................................................... 29
 
5.3.5
 
Isolation from the International Community 
.......................................................................... 30
 
5.4 -
 
Political 
– 
Regime & Ideology 
............................................................................................ 30
 
5.4.1
 
Charismatic Leadership that Creates Mass Followership
....................................................... 31
 
5.4.2
 
Commitment to a Harmful Ideology 
....................................................................................... 31
 
5.4.3
 
Orientation Towards Force and Coercion to Seize and Maintain Power 
................................ 32
 
5.4.4
 
Severe Government Discrimination or Active Repression Against Communal Groups
........... 33
 
5.4.5
 
Ruling Group Deems Outgroup to be Dangerous
................................................................... 33
 
5.4.6
 
Low Degree of Freedom of Speech
......................................................................................... 34
 
5.5 -
 
Conflict and Upheaval 
....................................................................................................... 35
 
5.5.1
 
History of Conflict 
................................................................................................................... 35
 
5.5.2
 
History of Genocide
................................................................................................................. 36
 

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