Chapter 8 How to Test for Trends ‘The first statistical problem we posed in this book, in connection with Fig. 1-24, dealt with a drug that was thought to be a diuretic, but that experiment cannot be analyzed using our existing procedures. In it, we selected different people and gave them different doses of the diuretic then we measured their urine output. The people who received larger doses produced more urine, The statistical question is whether the re- sulting pattern of points relating urine production to drug dose provided sulffcient evidence to conclude thatthe rug inereased urine production in proportion to drug dose. This chapter develops the tools for analy2- ing such experiments. We will estimate how much one variable in- ereases (or decreases) on the average as another variable changes with a regression line and quantifies the strength of the association with a cor- relation coefcient.” "Simple linear regression sa special case ofthe more general method of mudple ‘regression in which ease there are multiple independent variables. Fora discussion of multiple regression and related procedures writen in the same style as this book, see S.A, Glantz and BK, Slinker, Prinerof Applied Regression and Analysis of Variance, (@nd ea), McGraw-Hill, New York, 200 20HOW To TEST FOR TRENDS. 2 MORE ABOUT THE MARTIANS ‘As inal other statistical procedures, we want to use a sample drawn at random from a population to make statements about the population Chapters 3 and 4 discussed populations whose members are normally distributed with mean and standard deviation rand used estimates of these parameters to design test statistics (like F and 1) that permitted us to examine whether or not some discrete treatment was likely to have affected the mean value of a variable of interest. Now, we add another parametric procedure, linear regression, to analyze experiments in Which the samples were drawn from populations characterized by a mean response varying continuously with the size ofthe treatment. To understand the nature of this population and the associated random samples, we retum again to Mars, where we can examine the entire population of 200 Martians. Figure 2-1 showed that the heights of Martians are normally dis- tributed with a mean of 40 cm and a standard deviation of $ em. In ad- dition to measuring the heights of each Martian, lt us also weigh each one, Figure 8-1 shows a plot in which each point represents the height x and weight y of one Martian, Since we have observed the entire popula- tion, there is no question that tall Martians tend to be heavier than short Martians. ‘There are a number of things we can conclude about the heights and weights of Martians as well as the relationship between these two variables. As noted in Chapter 2, the heights are normally distributed with mean p= 40 em and standard deviation = 5 cm. The weights are also normally distributed with mean j.= 12 g and standard devia- tion ¢ = 2.5 g. The most striking feature of Fig. 8-1, however, is that the mean weight of Martians at each height increases as height in- creases. For example, the Martians who are 32 em tall weigh 7.1, 79, 83, and 8.8 g, so the mean weight of Martians who are 32 em tall is 8 g. The 8 Martians who are 46 cm tal weigh 13.7, 14.5, 148, 15.0, 15.1, 15.2, 15.3, and 15.8 g, so the mean weight of Martians who are 46 em tall is 15 g. Figure 8-2 shows that the mean weight of Martins at each height inereases nearly as height increases. This Tine does not make it possible, however, to predict the weight of an individual Martian if you know his or her height. Why not? There is variability in weights among Martians at each height Figure 8-1 reveals that standard deviation of weights of Martians232 CHAPTER @ 200 Marans oe ; 2 Oa a % & = & & & Height em Figure 8-1 Tho relationship between height and weight in the population of 200 Martians, with each Martian represented by a cele. The weights st any Given height follow a normal distribution. In addition, the mean weight of Mit- tiers at any given height increases linearly with height, and the variailty 9 ‘weight at any given height is the same regardloss of height A population must have these cheracterstics to be sutable for near regression or correlation analysis.