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© 2008 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. All brands and trademarks are the property of their respective owners. Reproduction is prohibited without written permission.
demographics
 
new diasporas
institute for the future
Ten-Year Forecast Perspectives 2008
SR-1140www.iftf.org
In a time ofrapid migration,
diasporas aremaps
of theows of
wealth,goods, andmeaning.
Over the next decade,new kinds of migration—across physical anddigital borders alike—will create new kindsof diasporas. Thesedispersed populationswith shared roots willperhaps be the realemerging economies ofthe 21st century. Andat the core of thesenew economies will bea commodity that willbe measured, managed,and traded as vigorouslyas any raw material, anymanufactured good oressential service. Thatcommodity is identity,and platforms for identi-ty creation and manage-ment will be the enginesthat power these newemerging economies.
Beyond geography:
a Virtual uprootedness
Following in the footsteps of anthro-pologist Arjun Appadurai, we alreadyknow to look at emerging diasporas notso much in terms of their geo-culturalorigins but in terms of their various over-lapping “scapes” of experience: medi-ascapes, technoscapes, and workscapesfor example. These scapes give rise tothe multi-layered identities that denetoday’s diasporas—and make it impos-sible to talk simply about the Indiandiaspora or the North African diaspora,for example.At the same time, we see that eventhese scapes are built on the shiftingsands of virtual platforms, from the mas-sively multiplayer games that Chineseyouth may inhabit as they travel to workhundreds of miles from home to theonline self-help groups that provide“citizenship” services to diverse ethnicmigrant workers from Latin America.As these platforms evolve, diasporasmigrate across them. So today’s diaspo-ras are as likely to be uprooted fromtheir virtual home spaces as from theirgeographical landscapes.
Beyond numBers:
local minorities,gloBal majorities
In addition, new media have givendiasporas a global voice that is perhapsout of proportion to their local numbers.As Appadurai points out, even thoughtheir numbers may be small in any givenregion, members of new diasporas feelthemselves increasingly to be part of aglobal majority. This new global identityempowers them to act on the globalstage, to dene themselves as equalto states in negotiating rights—whetherlocal or global, economic or geographic.They may even dene themselves asoutside these traditional legal systems.Such distortions of size and inuenceare likely to grow in the future as diaspo-ras emerge from new global phenomena.For example, global climate changewill create a host of new diasporas:disasters like hurricane Katrina or morepermanent ooding (as forecast forBangladesh) will spur forced migrationsof local populations who see themselvesas victims of global, not local disasters.Local food shortages will be seen as acollapse of a global food web, turning lo-cal famine-driven migrations into globalpolitical phenomena.
Beyond citizenship:
identity as commodity
These new diasporas are, in effect, thenew political economies of 21st century.But unlike citizens of nation-states, thenew diasporas won’t share a stablegeo-cultural identity. Rather they willcraft their identities, day to day, froma combination of shifting physical andvirtual environments. This instability willbe the source of both wealth creationand social disruption.Identity will become a commodity thatcan be constructed and deconstructed,and moved from one context to an-other as needed. Identity creation andmanagement will become both the basicdaily activity of individual members ofthe diaspora and the critical economicenterprise that binds diasporas togetheras a whole. The tools and platforms forthis enterprise will be the infrastructurethat drives economic growth.
 
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corporatediasporas
Corporations serveas destinations amongwhich groups of initiatedworkers circulate
Virtualdiasporas
Persistent onlineidentities migrate fromplatform to platform,leveraging personal historiesand relationships
actiVistdiasporas
Technological supportfor bottom-up, transbordercivil engagement createsnew platforms foridentity and community—especially in thedeveloping world
mediadiasporas
Media “taste trails”become identity markersthat dene persistentcommunities
climatechangediasporas
Climate change displacescommunities andcreates identities linkedto the causes and impactsof global warming
internaldiasporas
Rural to urban migrationsin large Asian countriesredene geographicand social identities
Biometricdiasporas
The ability to track,imagine, and expressbiological markers catalyzenew identitiesand communities
nw Cmm:iDentitYCmmnw Cmm:BioCoMMonsoPen-sourCeWArfAre:mmwaaPerVAsiVecmg:BottoM-uPeCo-reGuLAtionspgaza:pladp
Philawarepragacago
•
Nowhere man
•
Proiferating business
•
network platformsOpen ID platforms
•
Pan-ethnic migrant
•
suport servicesVirtual world workers
•
Persistent avatars
•
Hurricane Katrina diaspora
•
Bangladesh diaspora
•
Tuvalu Pact
•
North-to-South migrations
•
Refugee tracking
•
Global rights for local refugees
•
Solastalgia
•
DNA customs & ight check-in
•
Medical ID implants
•
DNA-based ancestry tracking
•
Health care map mashups
•
DNA asylum
•
NGO networks
•
Remote campaigns
•
Taste trails
•
Social taste networks
•
demographics
 
superhero organizations
Source:
New York Times
, 2005
solastalgia:
distress caused by transformation of one’s home geography
 
economics
 
isLAmic inFLUence
© 2008 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. All brands and trademarks are the property of their respective owners. Reproduction is prohibited without written permission.
institute for the future
Ten-Year Forecast Perspectives 2008
 SR-1140www.iftf.org
In a worldof capitalinstability,
Islamic fnance
 is emergingas a key zoneof
globalinnovation.
At the heart of thisinnovation is the reformof Islamicnance. In a worldcoping with the after-effects of risky bankingpractices and develop-ment strategies that,in many cases, haveburdened nations withinescapable debt,Islamic nance offersalternatives for manag-ing risk and debt. Inthis world, new Islamicnancial products areproviding a way for Mus-lims to engage with theglobal nancial sector—they are also emergingas both an alternativemodel of capitalism anda central requirementfor global capitalism.
isLAmic FinAnce:
DiFFUsion oF innoVATion
Aspects of Islamic law limit the ability ofdevout Muslims to engage with con-ventional banks and banking practices.Prohibitions on interest restrict their useof everything from mortgages to creditcards, while broader restraints limit theamount of debt they can assume.As oil money has ooded the Islamicworld and as globally mobile Muslimshave sought to establish lives in non-Muslim countries, Islamic legal scholarshave begun working with nancial expertsand banks to develop new instrumentsthat are
shariah
-compliant—that is, thatconform to the strictures of Islamic law.At the same time, Western banks areopening so-called Islamic banking win-dows that recognize the requirementsof Islamic law. These windows are a wayto service the growing Islamic diaspora—recipients of growing oil wealth—as wellas enter predominantly Muslim markets.The combination of innovation within theIslamic banking sector and the assertionof Islamic identities in both the West andthe broader Islamic world is leading to thegrowth of new urban hot spots of Islamicnance, from London to Kuala Lumpur.
isLAmic PRoHiBiTions:
BUFFeR AGAinsT RisK?
The world of banking has been destabi-lized by several decades of increasinglyrisky investment practices, culminatingin the current subprime mortgage crisis.In the face of this risk, many are askingwhether Islamic nancial instrumentsprovide a buffer against risk, since theytheoretically limit the burden of debt toone-third of a company’s liabilities andprohibit “making money from money”—that is, interest. Investors, insurers, andborrowers alike are looking to theseinstruments as an alternative way tomanage risk.In reality, many of the innovations inIslamic nance may simply be “shellgames,” as some people have called theefforts to repackage existing productsto make them look as though theyconform. The near-term performanceof the Islamic stock exchange and
sukuk
 bonds will be measures of the capacityof Islamic nance to provide alternativesthat are truly less risky.
BeYonD BAnKinG:
A neW eTHics oF DeVeLoPmenT
The inuence of Islamic nance may wellspread beyond the worlds of bankingand insurance:•The role of Islamic businesswomenmay grow as more of these womentake higher positions in new businessdomains and as Islamic scholars chal-lenge the dominant norms, interpretedfrom the Quran, the Hadith, and Islamichistory, regarding the role of women ingeneral—and specically in nance.•A broader strategy of addressingissues of nancial ethics may emergeas diverse groups—both secular andreligious—grapple with what might bedescribed as a “new moral order.”•Experimentation with alternativemodels of economic development mayavoid some of the shortcomings ofcurrent development practices as theycreate new property arrangements, cus-tomary law, and nancial institutions bydrawing upon the resources of religion.This interaction between Islamicwomen’s roles, alternative nancial eth-ics, and Islamic nancial innovation maybe the source of signicant economicsurprises over the next decade.
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