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A
 
D
IFFERENT
C
OUNTRY
 
R
USSIA
’
S
E
CONOMIC
R
ESURGENCE
 
L
ÚCIO
V
INHAS DE
S
OUZA
C
ENTRE FOR
E
UROPEAN
P
OLICY
S
TUDIES
 B
RUSSELS
 
 
The Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) is an independent policyresearch institute based in Brussels. Its mission is to produce soundanalytical research leading to constructive solutions to the challenges facingEurope today. CEPS Paperbacks present analysis and views by leadingexperts on important questions in the arena of European public policy,written in a style geared to an informed but generalist readership.The author, Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, is the official responsible for Russia atthe Directorate–General for Economic and Financial Affairs of theEuropean Commission. The views expressed in this report are those of theauthor writing in a personal capacity and do not necessarily reflect those ofCEPS, the European Commission or any other institution with which he isassociated.
Cover photo: Construction site in Moscow, September 2007
ISBN 13: 978-92-9079-767-8© Copyright 2008, Centre for European Policy Studies.
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval systemor transmitted in any form or by any means – electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recordingor otherwise – without the prior permission of the Centre for European Policy Studies.Centre for European Policy StudiesPlace du Congrès 1, B-1000 BrusselsTel: 32 (0) 2 229.39.11 Fax: 32 (0) 2 219.41.51e-mail: info@ceps.euInternet: http://www.ceps.eu
 
 
C
ONTENTS
 
Preface..................................................................................................................................i Acknowledgements.........................................................................................................iii1. Russia’s Economic Performance: The 1991-2008 ‘Transitions’............................1
1.1 Economic reform in Russia during the early 1990s.......................................11.1.1 Gorbachev and incidental reforms...................................................11.1.2 The Yeltsin economic reform programme.......................................41.1.3 A timeline of reform policies.............................................................71.2 The period 1997–98, or a crisis forewarned..................................................101.3 Lessons from Russia’s first transition...........................................................141.4 Macro performance during Russia’s transitions.........................................151.4.1 GDP performance..............................................................................151.4.2 Inflation..............................................................................................181.4.3 Exchange rate dynamics...................................................................201.4.4 External position................................................................................211.4.5 Fiscal position....................................................................................221.5 Post-1998 macroeconomic performance.......................................................231.5.1 1999–2000............................................................................................241.5.2 2001–05................................................................................................261.5.3 2006–07: The beginnings of a new growth cycle?.........................35
2. Russia under Putin: The Incomplete Reform Agenda.......................................40
2.1 Russia under Vladimir Putin.........................................................................402.1.1 Filling the reform vacuum...............................................................402.1.2 Is Russia such a poor reformer?......................................................442.2 Fiscal and monetary institutions and the financial system........................482.2.1 Recent fiscal performance and fiscal institutions..........................482.2.2 The monetary and exchange-rate policy frameworks andthe financial system...........................................................................542.3 Foreign direct investment...............................................................................622.3.1 Recent FDI performance...................................................................622.3.2 Origins of FDI inflows......................................................................67
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