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Adjusting to Leaner Times: 5th Annual Report of the CEPS Macroeconomic Policy Group
Adjusting to Leaner Times: 5th Annual Report of the CEPS Macroeconomic Policy Group

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Published by: Avrupa Birliği Enstitüsü on Jul 03, 2009
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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10/18/2011

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A
DJUSTING TO LEANER TIMES
TH 
 
 A
 NNUAL
 R
 EPORT OF THE 
CEPS M 
 ACROECONOMIC 
 P 
OLICY 
 ROUP 
J
ULY
2003
C
HAIRMAN
: D
ANIEL
G
ROS
, CEPSJ
UAN
F. J
IMENO
, FEDEA, M
ADRID
T
HOMAS
M
AYER 
, D
EUTSCHE
B
ANK 
, L
ONDON
N
IELS
T
HYGESEN
, U
NIVERSITY OF
C
OPENHAGEN
A
NGEL
U
BIDE
, T
UDOR 
I
NVESTMENTS
, N
EW
Y
OR
C
ENTRE FOR 
E
UROPEAN
P
OLICY
S
TUDIES
B
RUSSELS
 
This report presents the findings and recommendations of the CEPSMacroeconomic Policy Group (MPG) for the year 2002-03. The MPG is aselect body of highly respected economists who have undertaken to carry outindependent, in-depth research on current developments in the Europeaneconomy and to publish their findings in an annual report. CEPS gratefullyacknowledges financial support from Deutsche Bank, London and TudorInvestments, New York for the work of the MPG. The views expressed inthis report are those of the authors writing in a personal capacity and do notnecessarily reflect those of CEPS or any other institution with which themembers are associated.
ISBN 92-9079-443-7© Copyright 2003, Centre for European Policy Studies.All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored ina retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means – electronic,mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise – without the priorpermission of the Centre for European Policy Studies.Centre for European Policy StudiesPlace du Congrès 1, B-1000 BrusselsTel: 32 (0)2 229.39.11 Fax: 32 (0)2 219.41.51e-mail: info@ceps.beinternet: http://www.ceps.be
 
T
ABLE OF
C
ONTENTSPreface................................................................................................
i
Executive Summary
..........................................................................iii
Chapter 1. How did Euroland get caught in the slow-growth trap?
...11.1Setting the scene: Why is demand so anaemic in Euroland?.............1
 Investment....................................................................................
1
Consumption................................................................................
21.2What can policy do under these circumstances?..............................5
Structural policy..........................................................................5 Fiscal policy...............................................................................5Monetary policy..........................................................................The euro and transatlantic relations.............................................8
Annex. The housing channel of monetary policy in the US...................11
Chapter 2. Labour Markets and Structural Reforms
......................142.1A longer perspective and looking into the future….......................14
2.2
A structural improvement?
............................................................
22
Chapter 3. Fiscal Policy during Tough Times: Prepare for evenleaner years ahead or spend your way out of a cyclical slump?
293.1Fiscal policy and growth slowdown.............................................293.2Implications of lower growth for fiscal policy...............................303.3Even leaner times ahead?............................................................313.4The short-term attractiveness of tax cuts......................................343.5Could one kick-start the economy anyway?..................................353.6Has the quality of fiscal policy deteriorated?................................373.7Fiscal policy in a post-bubble environment...................................39

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