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T

HE

R

UBIK

C

UBE

OF THE

W

IDER

M

IDDLE

E

AST

M

ICHAEL

E

MERSON

AND

N

ATHALIE

T

OCCI

P

REFACE

BY

C

HRIS

P

ATTEN

C

ENTRE FOR

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UROPEAN

P

OLICY

S

TUDIESB

RUSSELS

The Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) is an independent policyresearch institute in Brussels. Its mission is to produce sound policy researchleading to constructive solutions to the challenges facing Europe. As aresearch institute, CEPS takes no position on matters of policy. The viewsexpressed are entirely those of the authors.CEPS Paperbacks present analysis and views by leading experts onimportant questions in the arena of European public policy. They are writtenin a style geared to an informed but generalist readership of policy-makers,government officials and corporate executives.Cover design by

6A Architects

(

www.6A.co.uk)

.

Use of the Rubik’s Cube® is by permission of Seven Towers Ltd.

ISBN 92-9079-418-6© Copyright 2003, Centre for European Policy Studies.All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in aretrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means – electronic,mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise – without the prior permission of the Centre for European Policy Studies.

Centre for European Policy StudiesPlace du Congrès 1, B-1000 BrusselsTel: 32 (0) 2 229.39.11 Fax: 32 (0) 2 219.41.51E-mail: info@ceps.beWebsite:http://www.ceps.be

C

ONTENTS

Preface by

Chris Patten

iAcknowledgementsiiiAbstractivSummary1

Part I. Crises and Confusion

1.Crises of the Wider Middle East and of the West

131.1Four crises of the Wider Middle East131.2Confusion of Western strategic ideas 15

Part II. The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

2.

The mad logic of escalation

232.1

Israel and Palestine232.2

Syria and Lebanon 26

3.

Time running out for a two-state solution

283.1One-state solutions293.2Two-state solutions353.3One confederation, multiple states38

4.

Evolution of political stances

414.1US power, bias and ambiguity414.2EU clarity in principle, compromising in practice434.3Enter the Quartet and Roadmap474.4Developments in the Arab world and Israeli’s reactions48

5.

Requirements of international law

52

6.

Shaping up for the Palestinian state

59

7.

Roadmaps and final destinations

677.1

The Quartet’s Roadmaps677.2

Accelerated Roadmap717.3

Final destinations75

Part III. The Wider Middle East

8.

Crisis of the Wider Middle East region

86

9.

Iraq as cause for a just war?

95

10.

Iran as partner or pariah?

106

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