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Discussion not
e
:
CLIMATE CHANGE CATASTROPHE: INSULATING KERALA
thrivikramji@gmail.com
CED
-
KEC
-
2008, Thrissur, April 22
-
24, 2008.
1
Background
The final report of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and the documentary film -
An
inconvenient truth
- by Al Gore (former VP in the Clinton administration) shared the Nobel Peace Prize for2007. The Nobel committee chose to award this distinction to highlight and loudly declare the topicalimportance of
global
climate change (GCC) due to ris
ing
lower tropospheric temperature, as a result ofuncontrolled emissions of Green house gases (e.g., CO2,
CH4,
SOx,
N2O etc) by burning of fossil fuels.
The
primary geophysical impact of
GCC
is
global sea level rise (
SLR) due to
a). volumetric expansion of
seawater
due to radiative heating and
b)
by the discharge of large volumes fresh water
from
melting of iceand snow in the western Antarctic sheet
,
Arctic sea ice, Greenland ice cover a
nd
continental ice sheets and
glaciers
The projected secondary implications
(biophysical)
are impacts on the human settlements in thecoastal towns and cities, changes in water quality of coastal aquifers, lagoons and estuaries, heightenedcoastal erosion and loss of property, devastations to coastal and terrestrial ecosystems, shift in intensity andaerial spread of rain fall, higher dryness and consequent droughts etc. This shift may lead to tertiary
cons
equences affecting human health due to rise in incidence of vector borne diseases, heat stress onhuman psyche, decreasing water supply and sanitation in population centers and even civil disorder and CC
refugees.The
CED convened a Conclave of the S
enior
Academics and S
cientists
(COSAS)
for a face to face (
March
15, 2008, Trivandrum), out of which emerged the
CED
-
SAS
-Think Tank, which
sat
(April 8, 2008 - CEDConference Hall) in a
brainstorming mode on
the Climate Change Catastrophe - Insulating Kerala(CCC-
IK)
. Here, the need to constitute a
larger
working group emerged. One other
resolve
of
the brain stormingsession was to stage,
along with KEC
-
2008 at Thrissur, a meeting of COSAS to go deeper and concrete into
the issue of CCC
-
IK
, and hence this
special session.
GHG driven Global change Phenomenon
:
International scenario
A bit of history
Role of carbon dioxide in modulating the atmospheric temperature (lower t
roposphere)
was recognized rightfrom the 1860s. Tyndall (1863) suggested that CO2 can absorb the out going infrared radiations and keep
the earth warmer.
The phrase green house effect (GHE), was coined by Arrhenius (1896) who proposed that
burning fossil fuels like coal and oil would increase the atmospheric CO2 content and thereby warm theearth by several degrees. But Barrel et al (1919) argued that the cooling trend in the 19
th
century was anindicator of absorption of CO2 by the chlorophyll in plant life and by sea water. In the first half of 20
th
century, scientists believed in GHE but did not believe in its efficacy to alter the earths climate. The physicsgoverning atmospheric and oceanic contents of CO2 seemingly ensures that only 2 % of oceanic CO2 will
be retained in the atmosphere. Possible implications of GCC are summarized in Ta
ble 1
.
Table 1, Effects, degree of likelihood and manifesting impacts (after Gilman et al, 2007)
Geophysical effect
Probability Impacts likely to occur
Higher max. Temp., more hotdays, and heat waves over
nearly all landmasses
Very likely
(90
-
99%
)
Increased deaths and serious illness in older agegroups & urban poor; increased heat stress inlivestock & wildlife; increased risk of damage to anumber of crops; increased electric cooling demand
& reduced energy supply reliability.
Higher min. tem
p., fewer cold
days, frost days and coldwaves nearly over all thearea.Very likely
(90
-
99%)
Decreased cold related morbidity & mortality;decreased risk of damage to a number of crops &increased risk to others; extended range & activity ofpests & othe
r disease vectors; reduced heating
energy demand.More intense precipitationevents
Very likely(90
-
99%)
Increased flood, landslide, mudslide & avalanchedamage; increased soil erosion; increased flood runoff; increased recharge of some flood plain aq
uifers
Increased summer dryingover most of mid
-
latitudecontinental interiors &associated risk of drought.
Likely
(67
-
90%)
Decreased crop yields, increased damage to building
foundations caused by ground shrinkage; decreased
water resource quantity and
quality; increased risk of
forest fire.Increase in tropical cyclonepeak intensities, mean andpeak precipitation intensities
Likely
(67
-
90%)
Increased risk to human life and risk of increased
i
nfectious disease epidemics; in
creased coastal
erosion an
d damage to coastal buildings and
infrastructure; increased damage to coastalecosystems such as coral reefs and mangroveswamps.Increased droughts andfloods associated with El
Nino
events
Likely
(67
-
90%)
Decreased agricultural & rangeland productivity in
drought and flood prone regions; Decreasedhydropower potential in drought prone regions
Discussion not
e
:
CLIMATE CHANGE CATASTROPHE: INSULATING KERALA
thrivikramji@gmail.com
CED
-
KEC
-
2008, Thrissur, April 22
-
24, 2008.
2
But in the wake of the 4
th
IPCC (final) report sharing the Nobel Peace Prize-2007, the Internationalcommunity of governments and nations, civil and scientific societies, industry, business and trade groups
and media
,
has
come in chorus asking for formulations
for
mitigation and adaptation of CC impacts. .
Prof. Jeffrey Sachs of Earth Institute, Columbia Univ., recently bluntly stated in a Scientific American articlethat even with a cut back in wasteful energy spending, our current technologies cannot support both adecline in CO2 emissions and expanding global economy. He adds that what is required is whole set of new
technologies
like capturing and burying CO2, plug-
in
-hybrid cars, and solar thermal electric plants - each ofwhich will require a combination of factors to succeed - more applied research, important regulatorychanges, appropriate infrastructure, public acceptance and high cost investments. The economic powersshould shoulder the burden of energy research.
The
US and Europe grew through the last century byburning fossil fuels. In recent article in Nature a group of scientists argued for a new technology policy, not
emissions policy.
T
hey said
t
here is no question about whether technological innovation is necessary
- it is
.
Table 2 is a qualitative summary of vulnerabilities of systems (both natural and manmade) due to
GCC
. C
C
related responses are very likely to affect the civil society, civil order and political society and economy ofnations. Orderly and peaceful life of citizens will be at risk due to GCC forced disruptions and therefore the
preparations for facing the climate change challenges cannot wait any
longer.Table 2
S
ystems vulnerable to GCCSystem
Manifest vulnerabilityEcosystems
60% are degraded (e.g.,Wetlands of Kerala)
and most severely stressed; e.g.,
Aral sea, Central Asia ; with past climate change ecosystems shifted to newzones; Human interference and bl
ocking by infrastructure already stressed
ecosystems do not shift locations;
even a short excursion from normality can
lead to collapse.
Water availability
Deprivation of 500 million people
in semi arid and 200 million in arid zones;
allocation and access are contentious; aquatic ecosystems and humans areaffected by problems of untreated return flow entering fresh waters; agriculturalintensification can lead to contamination of surface and subsurface water. By2050
,
42% of population may live in countrie
s with inadequate fresh water
stocks. Desertification due to increased drying will force 30 million to flee sub
-
Saharan AfricaUrban Forms
Only 20% of 1.6 billion lived in urban areas in 1900, but today it is 50% of 6.6billion;
by 2050 with population
of 9
-
10 billion vast majority of large urban
centers will be in global south; climate change will aggravate all nocuous
aspects of urban life in global south.Civil systems
A brew of climate change stress and related wants of city life may disrupt civilorder of population centers; may result
in
chaotic civil life.Tourism
At 10% of world business activity tourism is a driving force in the economy;warmer climate taking over temperate regions will restrict out flow of warm airseekers; Ecotourism in s
outh American states
, tropical Kerala
will gradually
vanish
by
relocation o
r disappearance of flora; shifting climate will affect inflow
of tourists; Mediterranean and tropical western seaboard of India can becomeunpleasantly hot. For n
ations
developing t
ourism
the stakes are especially high.The UN Initiatives
The United Nations have always been in the forefront to enlighten and encourage the member states inrespect of GCC impacts and about the need for limiting emissions
of
GHG to slow down the war
ming
process of the earth so as to deflect the impacts of climate change catastrophe. A series of annual meetsknown as COP (conference of parties) under auspices of the UNFCCC (United Nations Frameworkconference on Climate Change) have been scheduled right from 1992. The Earth Summit of Rio, the
Montreal and Kyoto protocol
s
, New Delhi declaration, Bali Roadmap etc.
,
are some of the landmark COPs.
Carbon trading
An NGO called Nature Conservancy prodded General Motors (GM) of the US to spend $10 million toconserve a Brazilian rain forest destroyed by water-
buffalo
-ranching so that GM can earn credit (later a.k.a.carbon credit) from both national and international organizations for CO2 those new trees in Brazil willabsorb for the next 40 yr. Also GM can use in future those credits to help meet its own requirements forcutting emissions of CO2, methane and other GHG
.
Under the Kyoto protocol (2001) on global warmingendorsed by 178 nations in July 2001, many nations would have to cut their GHG emissi
ons to certain target
levels. Trading turns those GHG emissions into a commodity which can be bought or sold like gold,soybean, wheat or pork bellies. One metric ton of CO2 emission or the equivalent of another GHG listedunder the protocol, is listed as one tradable emissions allowance - the key idea being the
spread
of
best
industrial practices
Discussion not
e
:
CLIMATE CHANGE CATASTROPHE: INSULATING KERALA
thrivikramji@gmail.com
CED
-
KEC
-
2008, Thrissur, April 22
-
24, 2008.
3
SE Asia portrait
:
India & China scene
The nations of eastern hemisphere have approximately 2/3 of the world population and long shorelines and
associated coast
al
land
.
India and China in particular have more than a billion
people
each and
are giftedwith climate zones ranging from humid tropical to temperate and arid. The high
altitude
provinces inmountain belts and plateau
s
have permanent snow and ice
cover or
glaciers. Both nations are in the fasttrack of development
with
GDP
growing at >10.0 % for China and > 8.0% for India, demanding huge inputs
of
fossil fuels and equally large share of annual
GHG
emission to
the atmospheric reservoir
. Truly
, in respect
of
limiting GHG emissions, with a
nation
-
specific
-quantum of emissions, one shall reckon and commit
appropriate
weightage to the nation specific cumulative emission of GHG, either starting with the postindustrial revolution or post WW2 decades. Any decision on the contrary will be
a
disfavor
to the global-
south community of nations including India and China and other industrial power houses of SE Asia.
Indian scenario
Though in the late 80s, consequent on a toast by Mr. Gayum, then visiting President of the Republic of
Male, and gift of a
copy of a treatise on Sea Level Rise
due
to Green House Effect
.. etc.
(Barth and Titus,
1984
) to late Mr. Rajiv Gandhi (the PM of India), triggered a
co
-coordinated research program (C
oordinator:
late Prof. V.Asthana,
JNU) to examine and assess the economic loss to the nation due to impact of sea level
rise.
Since then, much else did not happen in this area at least in India, in spite of the award of the Nobelpeace prize-2007, to the group (leader, Dr. Pachauri, TERI) that finalized the IPCC final report
on climatechange
(and producer of the inconvenient truth Mr Al.Gore) - only exception being the Anna University(
Chennai)
inaugurating a Department of Climate Change Studies.The con
sensus is that GHG driven cli
mate change
shall lead to warmer days and nights result
ing
in mightierdischarges of
melt
water in the Indian-
Himalayan
-rivers and to the joy of the governments and civil societylocally and for a shorter term. The longer term prognosis is very bleak in that these rivers might run drysans the supply of
glacial
melt water, driving the entire civil society of the Indo-
Gang
a
plain to
cascading
disruptions
due to drought, starvation, disease and civil disorder and chaos.
Water
-battles between
Bengla
desh and
India
or between China and India are distant but plausib
ile.
There might even be droughtand starvation driven illegal migrants and refugees
from
Bengladesh to the Indian cities adding furtherdisruption and breakdown of civil order.
Similarly, CC refugees
from the Lakshadweep islands to the Indian
states of western seaboard and internationally from Male are possibilities with high potential.
Kerala specifics
Large coastal tracts of the states of Indian peninsula, including Kerala are within the shouting distance ofimpact of global climate change a
nd
the first order
geophysical
responses are manifest rise in sea level
,
coastal erosion, landward migration of shoreline, displacement of people and deprivation of livelihood.
Truly, for the littoral
st
ate of Kerala, with a long western seaboard and a reactively long shoreline of 560 km.(most of which fall in the category of low coastal land (LCL) of < 7.5 m elevation),
GCC
portends a bleaker
future. The chief a
ttributes of the physical system of Kerala
are portrayed in Table 2.
The Kerala coastal land
(area =~3922 km
2
)
,one of the three physiographic divisions, falls below the
7.5
m (Anonymous, 1974).
Table 2. Kerala
-
Highlights (modified after Thrivikramji and Anirudhan, 1992)
Area: 38,836 km
2
; P
opulation: 31.8 million (Census, 2001)
Size of side of support square: 34 m; Population density: 798/kmHighland, elevation >75.0m ; area: 18,696 km
2
, (48.14%
)
Midland, elevation 7.5
-
75.0m; area: 16218 km
2
,(
41.76%
)Coastal land, elevation <7.5 m; area: 3922 km
2
, (
10.10%
)
Low coastal land: 2992 km
2
; 76.29% High coastal land: 930 km
2
; 23.71%
In the coastal land (CL) based on erodibility
,
Thrivikramji (1979) identified two types of shorelines, viz., thelow coastal land
with
permeable shoreline composed of sandy beaches and high coastal land
with
impermeable shoreline made of rocks of Tertiary Warkalli series and and/or of Precambrian Crystalline rocks
or their altered equivalents.
Out of the 34 Kayals, most of the major ones like Ettikulam, Vembanad (the largest and area =~205 km
2
),
Kayamkulam and Ashtamudi and some minor ones, (or the wetlands) fall in the LCL. The Kayals of coastal
land are very vibrant ecosystems and play a vital role supporting a varietal biodiversity. The coastal land and
its
natural systems play and contribute vastly to the states economy. For e.g., the coir industry of Kerala aswell as tourism industry depends heavily on the lagoons of LCL. The Naval Academy, Cochin Port, Navalbase and air strip, thermal power station, Indian Rare Earths Ltd., KMML, TTP Ltd., and Trivandrum Airport
etc. are located in the LCL.
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