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UNCLASSIFIEDMonday, 08 December 2008Six Party Talks: What does the Future Hold?
Mr. Leonard C. Perkins, CIV; USFK J2/JIOC-K OSINT
Summary:
The main issue for this round of Six Party Talks (6PT) will be getting the approvaland signatures of the members of the 6PT on an agreement on how to verify the DPRK’snuclear declaration. Despite government officials from the US, ROK, Japan, and Russiaclaiming the 6PT should continue and increased US-DPRK bilateral discussions shouldn’t affectthe 6PT process, there is ample evidence in the media to indicate that there is considerableangst in the ROK and Japan on their role and the future of the talks. There is also concern thenew US administration may replace the existing 6PT negotiators with new ones, thus disruptingthe continuity and familiarity established between the US and DPRK representatives. In theend, it appears the 6PT will continue in their present form for at least this meeting. If the DPRKdoes not obtain the concessions it seeks in this round of talks, it will most likely wait until thenew US administration comes into power and then seek more direct talks with the US. Itremains to be seen whether US-DPRK bilateral discussions will actually take place and if theydo, whether it will have the feared effect of reducing the influence of other 6PT members andendangering the overall future of the process.
Please direct your questions and comments to MAJ Steve Sin, Chief, USFK J2 OSINT:DSN – (315) 725-5045, Commercial – +82-2-7915-5045, or Email –CIOCCAOSINT@us.army.mil 
Information contained in this document is entirely derived from unclassified, open source, information.This product is based exclusively on the content and behavior of selected media and has not beencoordinated with other US Government components. This report may contain copyrighted material.Copying and dissemination is prohibited without permission of the copyright owners.
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UNCLASSIFIED6PT Current Status
The 6PT chief negotiators meeting will begin todayin Beijing after a five month recess. The last chiefnegotiators meeting was held in Beijing from 10 – 12Jul.The main issue for this meeting will be getting theapproval and signatures of the members of the 6PTon an agreement on how to verify the DPRK’snuclear declaration.The main sticking point in this agreement will be theuse of the term “sampling”, what that entails, and whether the DPRK will allow samples to betaken out of the country for independent verification.Chief negotiators from the US, Japan, and ROK met in Tokyo on 03 Dec to seek commonground on a document to commit the DPRK to allow inspectors to take samples from its nuclearfacilities.After the trilateral meeting in Tokyo, Japan’s chief negotiator said “There must be a clearcommitment in writing" on allowing inspectors to take samples from North Korean nuclearfacilities, "There can not be any misunderstanding regarding the verification procedures."Christopher Hill told
Kyodo News 
in Tokyo after the meeting that he is not particularly worriedabout establishing a written six-way protocol for verifying North Korea's declaration of its nuclearprograms as he is more concerned about ''getting to the actual verification process.''Sung Kim, the U.S. special envoy to the 6PT, also hinted at some flexibility in the disputes oversampling “The wording itself is important. But a common understanding among all the relatedparties is more important," he said during his trip last week to Jeju Island for a U.N.disarmament forum.This trilateral meeting was in advance of a one-on-one meeting between US chief negotiatorChristopher Hill and DPRK chief negotiator Kim Kye Kwan in Singapore on 04 Dec. Hill said thebilateral talks in Singapore were aimed at clarifying a deal made with Kim in October on ways toverify the DPRK’s declaration of its nuclear assets.Another item likely to be discussed will be energy resources provided to the DRPK ascompensation for halting its nuclear program. This will include discussions on providing energyto the DPRK from countries outside of the 6PT. This is in response to Japan’s refusal to provideits share of the promised energy aid until the DPRK makes progress on its pledge to look furtherinto the abductees issue.Lastly, this will be the final chief negotiators meeting during the Bush administration and is onlythe second 6PT meeting for delegates from the ROK, PRC, Japan, and Russia, all of whom joined the 6PT in early 2008. No delegates from the first 6PT meeting remain, though theDPRK’s Kim Kye Kwan has been involved since 2003 and US’ Christopher Hill since 2005.1 
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Kim Kye Kwan DPRKNeotiator Kim Sook ROK negotiator 
 Country 2003 2008
DPRKKim Yong Il Kim Kye Gwan ROKLee Soo HyuckKim SookPRCWang YiWu DaweiJapanMitoji YabunakaAkitaka SaikiRussiaAlexander LosiukovAlexei BorodavkinUSJames KellyChristopher Hill
6PT Countries’ Activity during RecessDPRK:
During the recess, chief negotiators from the DPRK and US metin Oct and agreed to a verification protocol. Shortly thereafter, the USremoved the DPRK from its SSTL, which the DPRK stated was aprerequisite for continued cooperation. As a result, the DPRK resumedwork on dismantling its nuclear related facilities at Yongbyon.But in what is surely to be the next hurdle to overcome in the 6PT, theDPRK announced it will not allow any samples to be taken from itsnuclear facilities for the purpose of verifying its nuclear declaration. TheDPRK insists it never agreed to the removal of samples of atomicmaterial. It says outside verification of its nuclear inventory will involveonly field visits, confirmation of documents, and interviews withtechnicians.In regards to accepting energy from outside parties, DPRK officialsstated they are willing to accept energy resources from anywhere, aslong as it receives the amount of resources agreed to by the othermembers of the 6PT.The DPRK has called for Japan to be excluded from the 6PT since, intheir view; Japan has reneged on their promise to provide energyresources.
ROK:
The ROK continues to participate in the 6PT in accordance withPresident Lee’s “Policy of Mutual Benefits and Common Prosperity” ofpragmatic and result-oriented approaches. It continues to encourageNorth Korea to give up its nuclear programs through the 6PT in returnfor economic assistance from SK.
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