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Time and Policy in theInformation Society
Jesse MARSH
 Atelier Studio Associato, via XX Settembre 70, Palermo, 90141, ItalyTel: +39 091 6253378, Fax: +39 091 6253378, Email:  jesse@atelier.it  
Abstract:
Policy making is inevitably a function of temporality inmany aspects. In the Information Society, the time-space for decision-making has changed notably with the increased pace of technologicaland social change. In addition, the reflexivity of world networks leadsto almost real-time impacts of local events or crises. In short, policymaking is now characterised by
instability
and
uncertainty
. This paper looks at the policy-making process in this context, examiningapproaches that try to address this new relationship to time.
1. Introduction
Anyone with teen-age children knows that most video games are not (as, say, the game of chess) based on a fixed set of rules known to all players at the outset. The game rather consists in discovering the rules by trial and error. In our transition towards the InformationSociety, decision and policy-making appear to be undergoing a similar transformation.There is general agreement that decisions today are characterised by a context of 
instability
and
uncertainty
: instability in the sense that, even while the game is being played, the rules of the game are changing; and uncertainty in the sense that expectedoutcomes may not occur after all. The question is: can policy actions be implemented before everything has changed again? That in turn is difficult to judge in the absence of aclealy structured model of policy-making with respect to the main variable in bothinnovation and uncertainty: time. This paper makes a first attempt to look at policy and timein this context.
2. Time and Policy-making
2.1 – Traditional policy-making procedures
The practice of policy-making is generally embedded in constitutional and/or legalframeworks whose relationship to time is often taken for granted.
1
We can identify some of the main phases in the policy-making process and variables affecting the duration of each:
•
Time to read the environment: this is an on-going process of understanding thedynamics of the context policy-makers operate in, generally carried out by the researchcommunity.
•
Time to define a strategy: this is the political framing of what to do, developed bystrategic think tanks and refined by the research staff of parties and politicians; althoughthis is also an on-going process the time required to respond to a specific problemdepends on a series of political variables, primarily the clarity (and previous success) of the general political strategy.
1
One well-known exception, for instance, is the electoral process for the President of the United States: anElectoral College with representatives from each State was devised in part to take into account the time required toreach the capital on horseback.
 
•
Time to build consensus: this is the more uniquely political phase of the process, and itsfluidity is an important measure of success; it also coincides with the beginning of  procedural time, as specific proposals for enactment by law are drafted.
•
Time to approve: this is in theory entirely procedural, although in practice it depends onmore political factors such as agenda-setting as well as the level of consensus reached inorder to avoid delays.
•
Time to finance: this phase can vary significantly according to whether the plan can relyon existing budgets, needs to draw on external or private financing, etc. (the “time of money” in the public sphere could be a research topic all to itself).
•
Time to implement: again, this is in theory a merely technical question; yet proceduresand politics can also influence factors such as the time required to open and assign atender.
•
Time to evaluate: this is a varied process occurring in parallel according to differentcriteria for success, i.e. if the policy was implemented, if it was effective, if it wasefficient, etc.; in general, this process takes us back to the first step of reading theenvironment.It becomes clear that there is a mixture of technical, procedural and political factorsaffecting the time it takes to complete the policy-making life cycle. When policy-makingappears to be ineffective, the consensus is that decisions are “too slow” or “taking too muchtime to enact”, but often the wrong factor is taken to blame. In a situation of friction between political allies, for instance, inevitably there is a call for reform of voting procedures. Yet there is an increasing doubt that it is neither the strategy nor the procedurenor the lack of consensus that is the problem, but the approach to time itself.
2.2 – Time in the Information Society
In the Information Society, the pace of technological innovation and economic globalisationis continuously increasing, and the reflexivity of world networks leads to almost real-timeimpacts of local events or crises. These are all factors that deeply affect time and itsrelationship to policy-making.In terms of the pace of change, an increasing number of phenomena are obeyingMoore’s Law. This was originally formulated with regards to micro-processors, predictingthat capacity would double every two years. The shift from a “progressive” to an“exponential” model for the increase of the rate of change has been a shock for traditional planning in sectors such as engineering and marketing.The challenge of Moore’s Law to traditional policy-making procedures is that a processthat is steady over time – implementing a decision – is superimposed on processes that areaccelerating at an exponential rate, namely those that define the environment that thedecision aims to affect. Yet even with Moore’s Law we are in a world of linear time, wherethings happen one after the other and the emphasis is on how much time it takes for a single process (i.e. the doubling of processing power) to complete its cycle.In parallel, complexity and chaos theory – identifying similar patterns in phenomena ina variety of fields from biology to economics – have made us also look closely atconcurrent processes, or things that happen at the same time, or other situations where timeis not simply a linear process that a clock can keep track of. Non-linear behaviour for instance has been seen to characterise phenomena from financial markets to voting preferences.More recently, network theory (notably with Barabasi) has developed to explain the behaviour of interconnected systems in relationship to the nature and pattern of links in thesystem. In this view, time is a relatively independent variable, as elements or sectors of a
 
network can develop, decay or collapse according to different rhythms. The emphasis shiftsrather to the quality of states of equilibria, resilience to shocks, reconfigurability, etc.
3. Policy-making in the Information Society
3.1 – Linear and Developmental Decision Models
If we return to the procedural model of decision-making processes, we can reduce it to asimple linear sequence. In a very straightforward manner, analysis of the environment provides the basis for policy decisions, which lead to action. Example: the economy needs jobs; we decide to build a dam; jobs are created.
ENVIRONMENT DECISION ACTION
 Linear Policy Model 
While this linear policy model may no longer work in fields characterised byuncertainty (e.g. job creation), it is still valid for some areas (e.g. providing rural areas withreliable electricity). We could generalise by saying that the linear model works in thosefields where the timespan of change is significantly greater than the life-span of the policyintervention and where the environment we are acting on does not demonstrate complexsystemic characteristics.A more reflexive variation – the so-called “developmental” policy model – introducesfeedback mechanisms so that each of a set of cycles can “learn from” its predecessors. Thisis the case of large and complex programs such as the EU’s Framework Program for research, and also takes into account the need for cyclical political and financialaccountability.
ENVIRONMENTDECISIONSACTION
 Developmental Policy Model 
In this case, we can generalise by saying that the developmental policy model works inthose fields where the timespan of change is about equal to the life-span of the policyintervention. Indeed, the life-span of complex policy actions is often determined by a roughguess about the pace of change in the environment for the given field of action.
3.2 – Side-stepping sequential time
The basic problem we defined at the outset however is that the pace of change hasaccelerated to an unprecedented degree. Calls to make the procedural policy-making
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