Pp20-36CC2008l Ch1to4 Introductory Chapters

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Impacts of Europe's changing climate — 2008 indicator-based assessment20

Introduction

1 Introduction

1.1 Purpose and scope

Recent decades have seen notable changes in globaland European climate. Sea levels and temperaturesare rising, precipitation is changing, and theintensity and frequency of weather extremes inmany regions is increasing.This report presents an indicator-based assessmentof recent and projected climate changes and theirimpacts in Europe. Its objectives are to:• present past and projected climate change andits impacts through easily understandable,scientifically sound and policy-relevantindicators;• identify the sectors and regions most vulnerableto climate change with a high need foradaptation;• increase awareness of the need for global, EUand national action on both mitigation (toachieve the EU global temperature target) andadaptation;• highlight the need to enhance monitoring,data collection and dissemination, and reduceuncertainties in climate and impact modelling.The aim is to provide short but comprehensiveindicator information covering all the main impactcategories, where feasible across Europe (EEA's32 member countries). However, for categoriesfor which no Europe-wide data were available,indicators have in some cases been developed andpresented for smaller scales, providing data wasavailable for at least several countries.The report updates a previous EEA report on climatechange impacts in Europe (2004). It is intendedfor a broad audience consisting of policy-makersat the EU and national and sub-national level,and the interested public and non-governmentalorganisations (e.g. environmental, businesses).

1.2 Background and policy framework

The consequences of climate change include anincreased risk of floods and droughts, losses of biodiversity, threats to human health, and damageto economic sectors such as energy, forestry,agriculture, and tourism. In some sectors, some newopportunities may occur, at least for some time,although over a longer period and with increasingtemperatures, effects are likely to be adverseworldwide if no action is taken to reduce emissionsor adapt to the consequences of climate change.The United Nations Framework Convention onClimate Change (UNFCCC) came into force in 1994.Its ultimate objective is 'to achieve stabilisation ofgreenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at

The 2007 Fourth Assessment Report from the UN

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)concluded that 'warming of the climate system isunequivocal, as is now evident from observations

of increases in global average air and ocean

temperatures, widespread melting of snow and iceand rising global average sea level' (IPCC SynthesisReport, SPM, 2007).

The IPCC concluded further that 'most of theobserved increase in global average temperatures

Box 1.1 IPCC Fourth Assessment (2007)

since the mid-20th century is very likely due tothe observed increase in anthropogenic GHGconcentrations' and 'continued GHG emissions at or

above current rates would cause further warming and

induce many changes in the global climate system

during the 21st century that would very likely be largerthan those observed during the 20th century' (IPCCSynthesis Report, SPM, 2007).

Introduction

21Impacts of Europe's changing climate — 2008 indicator-based assessment

a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenicinterference with the climate system'. To avoid'dangerous climate change' the EU has proposed atarget of a maximum global temperature increaseof 2 °C above the pre-industrial level. This willrequire global emissions to stop rising within thenext 10 to 15 years and then to be reduced to lessthan 50 % of 1990 levels by 2050. Within UNFCCCan international post-2012 international agreementis being negotiated, with the aim of reaching anagreement at the climate conference planned inCopenhagen at the end of 2009.However, there is growing awareness that, even ifGHG emissions were stabilised today, increases intemperature and associated impacts will continuefor many decades. Even if the EU target is achieved,the global warming already incurred and embeddedin unavoidable economic development will leadto climate change impacts to which countriesworldwide will need to adapt. Within the UNFCCCand other UN organisations increasing attention is being given to climate change adaptation, especiallyin developing countries, since these, often poor,countries will suffer the earliest and most damagingeffects, even though their GHG emissions are lowand thus have contributed least to the problem(UNDP, 2007).The most vulnerable regions and sectors vary acrossEurope, but the need to adapt to climate changehas been recognised in all countries. The EuropeanCommission's Green Paper on Adaptation (2007)started the EU adaptation policy process, andactions are already taking place at the national level.A Commission White Paper on adaptation will bepublished by the end of 2008. Integration of climatechange into other EU and national policy areas isalready taking place, e.g. the Water FrameworkDirective (aimed at improving water quality),the Floods Directive (aimed at reducing damagefrom floods) and the European Commission'sCommunication on Water Scarcity and Droughts.Policy-makers and the public need reliableinformation, and a key challenge is to furtherdevelop the scientific understanding of climatechange and impacts on a regional scale so that the best possible adaptation options can be developedand deployed. Some countries are developing orhave finalised national vulnerability assessmentsand/or national adaptation plans. However, morevulnerability and adaptive capacity assessmentsacross key economic sectors and environmentalthemes are needed. There is very little quantifiedinformation on adaptation costs and further workis needed to facilitate informed, cost-effective andproportionate adaptation in Europe. There are manyEU and national projects on climate change impacts,vulnerability and adaptation. However results fromsuch research programmes have often not been fullyshared with policy-makers and other stakeholders ina form that they can understand. There is a need formore projects that can help provide the right policyguidance and tools and which will help to buildeffective trans-national and sub-national networks.The European Environment Agency, theCommission's Joint Research Centre and theWorld Health Organization (European office) havetherefore joined forces to prepare this report. TheAgency also cooperated closely with several of itsEuropean topic centres (ETCs), including the ETC onAir and Climate Change; the ETC on Water and theETC on Biological Diversity.The report presents results of key recent nationaland EU-wide research activities (FP5-7 projects)and also builds on the fourth assessment of theIPCC (2007), and other recent key internationalassessments, including the Arctic Climate ImpactAssessment (2004, and its 2007 follow-up) andUNEP's Global Outlook for Ice and Snow (2007).The report also uses information from nationalassessments from various European countries.The main added value compared to these otherreports is the inclusion of the most recent scientificinformation and the specific focus on Europe.Compared with the previous (2004) EEA indicatorreport, this report includes a number of additionalindicators, while some of the previous indicatorshave not been retained, for various reasonsincluding the insufficiently clear relevance of theindicator regarding impacts of climate change.All indicators are also available on the web throughthe EEA web site indicator management system.This will allow easy regular updating on the web ofthose indicators for which regular (possibly annual)new data becomes available and for which trendsare changing significantly in a relatively short periodof a few years.

1.3 Outline

Chapter 2 sets out the scientific background ofclimate change, its causes and its impacts. It alsoprovides an overview of the linkages between thevarious indicator categories.Chapter 3 provides an introduction and briefoverview of observed climate change in Europe.

Introduction

22Impacts of Europe's changing climate — 2008 indicator-based assessment

Chapter 4 gives an overview of projected climatechange and also discusses possible irreversibleclimate change with large potentially catastrophicrisks. It also includes some backgroundon climate-change scenarios and projectedclimate-change indicators.The main part of the report is in Chapter 5. The stateof climate change and its impacts in Europe aredescribed by means of about 40 indicators, dividedinto eight different categories:• Atmosphere and climate;• Cryosphere (glaciers, snow and ice);• Marine biodiversity and ecosystems;• Water quantity;• Freshwater quality and biodiversity;• Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity;• Soil;• Agriculture and forestry;• Human health.The indicators in Chapter 5 provide selected andmeasurable examples of climate change and itsimpacts, which are already showing clear trendsin response to climate change. Mainly indicatorsfor which data are available for about 20 yearshave been selected, although in some cases thisperiod was shorter and the reasons for includingthe indicator are explained. The responses of theselected indicators can be understood as beingrepresentative of the more complex responses of thewhole category. Furthermore, the results can givean indication of where, to what extent and in whichsectors Europe is vulnerable to climate change, nowand in the future. Each indicator is presented in aseparate sub-chapter containing a summary of thekey messages, an explanation of the relevance of theindicator for the environment, society and policy, ashort description of main uncertainties, and analysisof past, recent and future trends.Chapter 6 discusses climate change adaptationstrategies and actions and reviews currentexperience.Chapter 7 addresses the effects of climate change oneconomic sectors, based on the limited knowledgeavailable. Complete Europe-wide information isavailable for almost no sectors, so information formany sectors is therefore provided either from onlya few countries or over a relatively limited period.Finally, Chapter 8 evaluates the causes ofuncertainties and discusses data availability andquality. It also proposes potential indicators whichcould broaden future climate impact assessments,given appropriate monitoring and data.

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