An indicator-based assessment
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Impacts of Europe's changing climate — 2008 indicator-based assessment
5.2 Atmosphere and climate
5.2.1 Introduction
Europe's climate shows considerable regionalvariability. This is related to the continent's positionin the northern hemisphere and the influence ofneighbouring seas and continents, including theArctic. Atmospheric circulation is an importantdriver of the temporal and regional variances(see Box 5.1).
The atmospheric circulation moves air masses withtheir own specific characteristics, like temperatureand humidity, over long distances. Important forthe European climate is the prevailing western
circulation at mid latitudes that directs the oceanic
air masses inland over the continent. Strongerwestern advection brings milder and wetter weatherand stronger winds to most of Europe, especiallyin winter. Weaker and blocked western circulationcauses generally colder and drier winters and hotterand drier summers. Fluctuations in the behaviour
of this circulation pattern are one of the main
sources of variability in the European climate. Theintensity of the western circulation in the European
region is expressed by the North Atlantic Oscillation
(NAO) index. NAO is the large-scale fluctuation inatmospheric pressure in the Atlantic ocean between
the high-pressure system near the Azores and the
low pressure system near Iceland (Figure 5.1).The NAO is characterised by seasonal, inter-annualand inter-decadal variations. The driving
mechanism of the short-term dynamics is connected
with weather fluctuations. Longer time-scale
Box 5.1 Atmospheric circulation patterns in Europe
variations are linked to atmosphere-ocean-ice
interactions.
The seasonal anomalies have direct impacts
on humans, often being associated with floods,heat-and cold-waves. The NAO appears to have
been considerably more variable from year to year
in the late 18th and early 19th centuries than in the20th century. More recently, there was a large increasein the NAO index between 1970 and 1990, followedby a decrease back to about normal in 2005. Therelationship with anthropogenic climate change is asyet unclear. Scenarios for future circulation patternsare very uncertain, because of the complexity of the
processes and the limited ability to represent this in
climate models.The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific
Ocean has global impacts on decadal and longer-termvariability and can cause precipitation and temperature
changes over very large distances, including as far asEurope. Generally, for Europe, the effects of ENSO onprecipitation and temperature are much weaker thanthose caused by variations in the NAO.
Figure 5.1 Mean winter (December–March) NAO index 1864–2007
NAO index (station)18601980196019401920190018802005
20– 2
Note:
Positive indicates stronger western ow.
Source:
Updated from Hurrell
etal.
, 2003.
This section describes the changing climaticand atmospheric conditions. The indicators areglobal and European temperature, precipitation,temperature and precipitation extremes, storms andstorm surges, and atmospheric ozone concentration.Whereas most indicators focus on Europe, globaltemperature has been included because of theEU policy target to limit the global averagetemperature increase to a maximum of 2 °C abovepre-industrial levels, in order to keep climate changeat a manageable level and reduce the likelihood ofirreversible disruptions.
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