• Climate change, in particular milder winters,is responsible for the observed northward and
uphill distribution shifts of many European plant
species. Mountain ecosystems in many parts of
Europe are changing as pioneer species expanduphill and cold-adapted species are driven out
of their ranges.• By the late 21st century, distributions of European plant species are projected to have
Key messages
shifted several hundred kilometres to the north,
forests are likely to have contracted in the
south and expanded in the north, and 60 % of mountain plant species may face extinction.• The rate of change will exceed the ability of many species to adapt, especially as landscapefragmentation may restrict movement.
Relevance
The rate of climate change is likely to exceed theadaptive capacity of some wild plant species(IPCC, 2007), whilst others are expected to benefit from changing environmental conditions(Sobrino Vesperinas
et al.
, 2001). Consequently, thecomposition of many plant communities is changingto the extent that completely new assemblagesare appearing. In addition, there is a parallelchange in plant distribution and the increasedthreat of extinction of species at the edge of theirgeographical and altitudinal ranges — particularlypoorly-dispersing endemics. The ecologicalimplications of these changes and the effects onthe services that these ecosystems provide are notalways clear. Together with the emergence of invasivenon-native species, these factors will have challengingconsequences for long-term biodiversity conservation(Gitay
et al.
, 2002) and the ability of Europe to meet itstarget to halt biodiversity loss, not least in relation tothe favourable status of Natura 2000 sites.The adaptive capacity of species is linked to geneticdiversity and this too might change under climatechange; sensitive and valuable relic populations will be particularly affected.
Past trends
Warmer temperatures in the past 30 years havesignificantly influenced seasonal patterns acrossEurope. As evidenced during glacial and inter-glacialperiods, the predominant adaptive response oftemperature-sensitive plant species has been to shiftdistributions, resulting in northward and altitudinalmovements. One such climate-limited species is holly(
Ilex aquifolium
), which has expanded in southernScandinavia in a manner consistent and synchronouswith recorded regional climate changes, linkedin particular with increasing winter temperatures(Walther
et al.
, 2005).Mountain ecosystems are particularly vulnerableto climate change (IPCC, 2007). There has been ageneral increase in mountain summit species inEurope since the Little Ice Age in the 18th century. InSwitzerland, for example, the uphill shift of Alpineplants showed an accelerating trend towards theend of the 20th century that is likely to be linked
0102030405060Number of species
P i z L a g a l b ( 2 9 5 9 m ) L a s S o u r s ( 2 9 7 9 m ) P i z d a l s L e j s ( 3 0 4 1 m ) P i z T s c h ü f f e r ( 3 1 2 3 m ) M u n t P e r s ( 3 2 0 7 m ) P i z L a n g u a r d ( 3 2 6 2 m ) P i z T r o v a t ( 3 1 4 6 m ) P i z M i n o r ( 3 0 4 9 m ) P i z C h a t s c h e d e r s ( 2 9 8 6 m ) P i z A l v ( 2 9 7 5 m )
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