Supplemental Final Environmental Impact Statement Chapter 4
April 2008 4-3
As such, the number of linked passenger trips provides an estimate of the number ofpeople using the transit system.The results of the forecast of transit ridership indicate that the transit improvementsproposed under the LPA would increase the number of transit work trips in the regionby 1.01 percent, and transit non-work trips by 1.39 percent. The percentages aresmall because the transit improvements for the Southeast Corridor would be focusedon only a small portion of the overall METRO service area. The results indicate anincrease of about 19,785 additional passenger boardings, 37,375 additionalpassenger miles and 400 additional passenger hours under the LPA.
184.108.40.206 Fixed-Guideway Ridership
Experience during the first several months of start-up of the METRORail Red Linefound that conventional travel demand mode choice models do not capture all of thetrips using fixed-guideway transit. To account for the additional trips, supplementarymethods were used to forecast what is referred to as “off-model ridership”, or theadditional ridership that could not be forecasted with METRO’s EMME/2 model. LRTridership estimates (boardings) for the LPA were adjusted to account for theadditional trips related to special events and non-home based trips that cannot begenerated using the conventional modeling process.Table 4-1 presents the forecasts of 2030 average weekday LRT ridership estimates forthe LPA, the METRORail Red Line, and the total fixed-guideway system using theEMME/2 model and supplementary methods.
Table 4-1. Total Average Weekday LRT Ridership
LPA METRORail Red LineTotal
EMME/2 Model Results 26,650 42,850 69,500NHB
-Direct Demand Trips 1,070 8,100 9,170Special Event Trips 1,030 3,400 4,430Smith Lands Lot Trips - 15,000 15,000Total 28,750 69,350 98,100
NHB – Non-Home BasedSource: METRO, January, 2008.
The results indicate that total daily ridership in 2030 for the LPA would beapproximately 28,750 boardings. Overall, total fixed-guideway ridership, includingthe METRORail Red Line and LPA, is forecast to be 98,100.
220.127.116.11 Fixed Guideway Station Boardings
Table 4-2 summarizes the ridership estimates, or station boardings for the LPA in2030.